Showing papers in "Nature Geoscience in 2019"

Atmospheric transport and deposition of microplastics in a remote mountain catchment

Abstract: Plastic litter is an ever-increasing global issue and one of this generation’s key environmental challenges. Microplastics have reached oceans via river transport on a global scale. With the exception of two megacities, Paris (France) and Dongguan (China), there is a lack of information on atmospheric microplastic deposition or transport. Here we present the observations of atmospheric microplastic deposition in a remote, pristine mountain catchment (French Pyrenees). We analysed samples, taken over five months, that represent atmospheric wet and dry deposition and identified fibres up to ~750 µm long and fragments ≤300 µm as microplastics. We document relative daily counts of 249 fragments, 73 films and 44 fibres per square metre that deposited on the catchment. An air mass trajectory analysis shows microplastic transport through the atmosphere over a distance of up to 95 km. We suggest that microplastics can reach and affect remote, sparsely inhabited areas through atmospheric transport.

Anthropogenic stresses on the world’s big rivers

Abstract: The world’s big rivers and their floodplains were central to development of civilization and are now home to c. 2.7 billion people. They are economically vital whilst also constituting some of the most diverse habitats on Earth. However, a number of anthropogenic stressors, including large-scale damming, hydrological change, pollution, introduction of non-native species and sediment mining, challenge their integrity and future, as never before. The rapidity and extent of such change is so great that large-scale, and potentially irreparable, transformations may ensue in periods of years to decades, with ecosystem collapse being possible in some big rivers. Prioritizing the fate of the world’s great river corridors on an international political stage is imperative. Future sustainable management, and establishment of environmental flow requirements for the world’s big rivers, must be supported through co-ordinated international funding, and trans-continental political agreement to monitor these rivers, finance their continual upkeep and help ameliorate increasing anthropogenic pressures. To have any effect, all of these must be set within an inclusive governance framework across scales, organizations and local populace. Stressors such as large-scale damming, hydrological change, pollution, the introduction of non-native species and sediment mining are challenging the integrity and future of large rivers, according to a synthesis of the literature on the 32 biggest rivers.

Soil carbon storage informed by particulate and mineral-associated organic matter

Abstract: Effective land-based solutions to climate change mitigation require actions that maximize soil carbon storage without generating surplus nitrogen. Land management for carbon sequestration is most often informed by bulk soil carbon inventories, without considering the form in which carbon is stored, its capacity, persistency and nitrogen demand. Here, we present coupling of European-wide databases with soil organic matter physical fractionation to determine continental-scale forest and grassland topsoil carbon and nitrogen stocks and their distribution between mineral-associated and particulate organic matter pools. Grasslands and arbuscular mycorrhizal forests store more soil carbon in mineral-associated organic carbon, which is more persistent but has a higher nitrogen demand and saturates. Ectomycorrhizal forests store more carbon in particulate organic matter, which is more vulnerable to disturbance but has a lower nitrogen demand and can potentially accumulate indefinitely. The share of carbon between mineral-associated and particulate organic matter and the ratio between carbon and nitrogen affect soil carbon stocks and mediate the effects of other variables on soil carbon stocks. Understanding the physical distribution of organic matter in pools of mineral-associated versus particulate organic matter can inform land management for nitrogen-efficient carbon sequestration, which should be driven by the inherent soil carbon capacity and nitrogen availability in ecosystems. Land management strategies for enhancing soil carbon sequestration need to be tailored to different soil types, depending on how much organic matter is stored in pools of mineral-associated and particulate organic matter, suggests an analysis of soil organic matter across Europe.

Stabilization of atmospheric nitrogen deposition in China over the past decade

Abstract: Increasing atmospheric nitrogen deposition can influence food production, environmental quality and climate change from the regional to global scales. As the largest developing country, China is expected to experience a rapid increase in N deposition. However, the lack of information on dry N deposition limits our understanding of the historical trend of the total N deposition, as well as the main drivers of this trend. Here, we use extensive datasets that include both wet and dry N deposition to evaluate the spatiotemporal variation of N deposition and the changes of its components in China during 1980–2015. Three significant transitions in N deposition in China were observed. First, the total N deposition began to stabilize in 2001–2005, mostly due to a decline in wet NH4+ deposition. Subsequently, a shift to approximately equal wet and dry N deposition occurred in 2011–2015, accompanied by increasing dry deposition. Finally, the contribution of reduced N components in the deposition decreased due to increasing NO3− deposition. These transitions were jointly driven by changes in the socioeconomic structure in China and vigorous controls in N pollution. The three observed important transitions challenge the traditional views about the continuous increase in N deposition in China. Nitrogen deposition in China has been almost constant over the past decade, as decreasing wet deposition has balanced increasing dry deposition, according to analyses of extensive datasets on wet and dry nitrogen depositions in China.

A two-pollutant strategy for improving ozone and particulate air quality in China

Abstract: Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) decreased by 30–40% across China during 2013–2017 in response to the governmental Clean Air Action. However, surface ozone pollution worsened over the same period. Model simulations have suggested that the increase in ozone could be driven by the decrease in PM2.5, because PM2.5 scavenges hydroperoxy (HO2) and NOx radicals that would otherwise produce ozone. Here we show observational evidence for this effect with 2013–2018 summer data of hourly ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from 106 sites in the North China Plain. The observations show suppression of ozone pollution at high PM2.5 concentrations, consistent with a model simulation in which PM2.5 scavenging of HO2 and NOx depresses ozone concentrations by 25 ppb relative to PM2.5-free conditions. PM2.5 chemistry makes ozone pollution less sensitive to NOx emission controls, emphasizing the need for controlling emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), which so far have not decreased in China. The new 2018–2020 Clean Air Action plan calls for a 10% decrease in VOC emissions that should begin to reverse the long-term ozone increase even as PM2.5 continues to decrease. Aggressive reduction of NOx and aromatic VOC emissions should be particularly effective for decreasing both PM2.5 and ozone. Observations confirm that cleaning up fine particulate matter in the North China Plain has exacerbated ozone pollution, suggesting that both NOx and VOC emissions need to be reduced to improve air quality.

A consensus estimate for the ice thickness distribution of all glaciers on Earth

Abstract: Knowledge of the ice thickness distribution of the world’s glaciers is a fundamental prerequisite for a range of studies. Projections of future glacier change, estimates of the available freshwater resources or assessments of potential sea-level rise all need glacier ice thickness to be accurately constrained. Previous estimates of global glacier volumes are mostly based on scaling relations between glacier area and volume, and only one study provides global-scale information on the ice thickness distribution of individual glaciers. Here we use an ensemble of up to five models to provide a consensus estimate for the ice thickness distribution of all the about 215,000 glaciers outside the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. The models use principles of ice flow dynamics to invert for ice thickness from surface characteristics. We find a total volume of 158 ± 41 × 103 km3, which is equivalent to 0.32 ± 0.08 m of sea-level change when the fraction of ice located below present-day sea level (roughly 15%) is subtracted. Our results indicate that High Mountain Asia hosts about 27% less glacier ice than previously suggested, and imply that the timing by which the region is expected to lose half of its present-day glacier area has to be moved forward by about one decade. The ice volume of glaciers outside the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets totals about 158,000 km3, with about 27% less ice in High Mountain Asia than thought, according to multiple models that estimate ice thickness from surface characteristics.

Microbial formation of stable soil carbon is more efficient from belowground than aboveground input

Abstract: The relative contributions of aboveground versus belowground plant carbon inputs to the stable soil organic carbon pool are the subject of much debate—with direct implications for how the carbon cycle is modelled and managed. The belowground rhizosphere pathway (that is, carbon exiting the living root) is theorized to form stable soil carbon more efficiently than the aboveground pathway. However, while several mechanisms have been invoked to explain this efficiency, few have been empirically tested or quantified. Here, we use soil microcosms with standardized carbon inputs to investigate three posited mechanisms that differentiate aboveground from belowground input pathways of dissolved organic carbon—through the microbial biomass—to the mineral-stabilized soil organic carbon pool: (1) the physical distance travelled, (2) the microbial abundance in the region in which a carbon compound enters (that is, rhizosphere versus bulk soil) and (3) the frequency and volume of carbon delivery (that is, infrequent ‘pulse’ versus frequent ‘drip’). We demonstrate that through the microbial formation pathway, belowground inputs form mineral-stabilized soil carbon more efficiently than aboveground inputs, partly due to the greater efficiency of formation by the rhizosphere microbial community relative to the bulk soil community. However, we show that because the bulk soil has greater capacity to form mineral-stabilized soil carbon due to its greater overall volume, the relative contributions of aboveground versus belowground carbon inputs depend strongly on the ratio of rhizosphere to bulk soil. Belowground carbon inputs form stable soil carbon more efficiently through microbial formation than carbon addition aboveground, according to soil microcosm experiments that quantitatively compare soil carbon formation efficiencies from different mechanistic pathways.

Worldwide alteration of lake mixing regimes in response to climate change

Abstract: Lakes hold much of Earth’s accessible liquid freshwater, support biodiversity and provide key ecosystem services to people around the world. However, they are vulnerable to climate change, for example through shorter durations of ice cover, or through rising lake surface temperatures. Here we use a one-dimensional numerical lake model to assess climate change impacts on mixing regimes in 635 lakes worldwide. We run the lake model with input data from four state-of-the-art model projections of twenty-first-century climate under two emissions scenarios. Under the scenario with higher emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0), many lakes are projected to have reduced ice cover; about one-quarter of seasonally ice-covered lakes are projected to be permanently ice-free by 2080–2100. Surface waters are projected to warm, with a median warming across lakes of about 2.5 °C, and the most extreme warming about 5.5 °C. Our simulations suggest that around 100 of the studied lakes are projected to undergo changes in their mixing regimes. About one-quarter of these 100 lakes are currently classified as monomictic—undergoing one mixing event in most years— and will become permanently stratified systems. About one-sixth of these are currently dimictic—mixing twice per year—and will become monomictic. We conclude that many lakes will mix less frequently in response to climate change. Many lakes that currently mix once or twice a year may become permanently stratified or mix only once in a warming climate, suggest numerical simulations of lake mixing regimes. Mixing regimes are most affected by ice-cover duration and surface temperatures.

Mangrove canopy height globally related to precipitation, temperature and cyclone frequency

Abstract: Mangrove wetlands are among the most productive and carbon-dense ecosystems in the world. Their structural attributes vary considerably across spatial scales, yielding large uncertainties in regional and global estimates of carbon stocks. Here, we present a global analysis of mangrove canopy height gradients and aboveground carbon stocks based on remotely sensed measurements and field data. Our study highlights that precipitation, temperature and cyclone frequency explain 74% of the global trends in maximum canopy height, with other geophysical factors influencing the observed variability at local and regional scales. We find the tallest mangrove forests in Gabon, equatorial Africa, where stands attain 62.8 m. The total global mangrove carbon stock (above- and belowground biomass, and soil) is estimated at 5.03 Pg, with a quarter of this value stored in Indonesia. Our analysis implies sensitivity of mangrove structure to climate change, and offers a baseline to monitor national and regional trends in mangrove carbon stocks. Mangrove canopy height varies strongly around the globe in response to climatic factors, according to a global analysis of remote sensing and field data.

Drought impacts on terrestrial primary production underestimated by satellite monitoring

Abstract: Satellite retrievals of information about the Earth’s surface are widely used to monitor global terrestrial photosynthesis and primary production and to examine the ecological impacts of droughts. Methods for estimating photosynthesis from space commonly combine information on vegetation greenness, incoming radiation, temperature and atmospheric demand for water (vapour-pressure deficit), but do not account for the direct effects of low soil moisture. They instead rely on vapour-pressure deficit as a proxy for dryness, despite widespread evidence that soil moisture deficits have a direct impact on vegetation, independent of vapour-pressure deficit. Here, we use a globally distributed measurement network to assess the effect of soil moisture on photosynthesis, and identify a common bias in an ensemble of satellite-based estimates of photosynthesis that is governed by the magnitude of soil moisture effects on photosynthetic light-use efficiency. We develop methods to account for the influence of soil moisture and estimate that soil moisture effects reduce global annual photosynthesis by ~15%, increase interannual variability by more than 100% across 25% of the global vegetated land surface, and amplify the impacts of extreme events on primary production. These results demonstrate the importance of soil moisture effects for monitoring carbon-cycle variability and drought impacts on vegetation productivity from space. Soil moisture effects can substantially reduce photosynthesis and amplify the impacts of extreme events on primary production, potentially leading to biases in satellite-based estimates of photosynthesis, suggests an analysis of ground-based measurements.

Twenty-first century glacier slowdown driven by mass loss in High Mountain Asia

Abstract: Glaciers in High Mountain Asia have experienced heterogeneous rates of loss since the 1970s. Yet, the associated changes in ice flow that lead to mass redistribution and modify the glacier sensitivity to climate are poorly constrained. Here we present observations of changes in ice flow for all glaciers in High Mountain Asia over the period 2000–2017, based on one million pairs of optical satellite images. Trend analysis reveals that in 9 of the 11 surveyed regions, glaciers show sustained slowdown concomitant with ice thinning. In contrast, the stable or thickening glaciers of the Karakoram and West Kunlun regions experience slightly accelerated glacier flow. Up to 94% of the variability in velocity change between regions can be explained by changes in gravitational driving stress, which in turn is largely controlled by changes in ice thickness. We conclude that, despite the complexities of individual glacier behaviour, decadal and regional changes in ice flow are largely insensitive to changes in conditions at the bed of the glacier and can be well estimated from ice thickness change and slope alone. Changes in glacier speed in High Mountain Asia are closely linked to mass balance through gravitational driving stress, and largely insensitive to basal conditions, according to satellite-derived ice-flow observations.

Consistent multi-decadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era.

Abstract: Multi-decadal surface temperature changes may be forced by natural as well as anthropogenic factors, or arise unforced from the climate system. Distinguishing these factors is essential for estimating sensitivity to multiple climatic forcings and the amplitude of the unforced variability. Here we present 2,000-year-long global mean temperature reconstructions using seven different statistical methods that draw from a global collection of temperature-sensitive paleoclimate records. Our reconstructions display synchronous multi-decadal temperature fluctuations, which are coherent with one another and with fully forced CMIP5 millennial model simulations across the Common Era. The most significant attribution of pre-industrial (1300-1800 CE) variability at multi-decadal timescales is to volcanic aerosol forcing. Reconstructions and simulations qualitatively agree on the amplitude of the unforced global mean multi-decadal temperature variability, thereby increasing confidence in future projections of climate change on these timescales. The largest warming trends at timescales of 20 years and longer occur during the second half of the 20th century, highlighting the unusual character of the warming in recent decades.

Human domination of the global water cycle absent from depictions and perceptions

Abstract: Human water use, climate change and land conversion have created a water crisis for billions of individuals and many ecosystems worldwide. Global water stocks and fluxes are estimated empirically and with computer models, but this information is conveyed to policymakers and researchers through water cycle diagrams. Here we compiled a synthesis of the global water cycle, which we compared with 464 water cycle diagrams from around the world. Although human freshwater appropriation now equals half of global river discharge, only 15% of the water cycle diagrams depicted human interaction with water. Only 2% of the diagrams showed climate change or water pollution—two of the central causes of the global water crisis—which effectively conveys a false sense of water security. A single catchment was depicted in 95% of the diagrams, which precludes the representation of teleconnections such as ocean–land interactions and continental moisture recycling. These inaccuracies correspond with specific dimensions of water mismanagement, which suggest that flaws in water diagrams reflect and reinforce the misunderstanding of global hydrology by policymakers, researchers and the public. Correct depictions of the water cycle will not solve the global water crisis, but reconceiving this symbol is an important step towards equitable water governance, sustainable development and planetary thinking in the Anthropocene.

California forest die-off linked to multi-year deep soil drying in 2012–2015 drought

Abstract: Widespread episodes of recent forest die-off have been tied to the occurrence of anomalously warm droughts, although the underlying mechanisms remain inadequately understood. California’s 2012–2015 drought, with exceptionally low precipitation and warmth, and widespread conifer death, provides an opportunity to explore the chain of events leading to forest die-off. Here, we present the spatial and temporal patterns of die-off and moisture deficit during California’s drought, based on field and remote sensing observations. We found that die-off was closely tied to multi-year deep-rooting-zone drying, and that this relationship provides a framework with which to diagnose and predict mortality. Marked tree death in an intensively studied Sierra Nevada forest followed a four-year moisture overdraft, with cumulative 2012–2015 evapotranspiration exceeding precipitation by ~1,500 mm, and subsurface moisture exhaustion to 5–15-m depth. Observations across the entire Sierra Nevada further linked tree death to deep drying, with die-off and moisture overdraft covarying across latitude and elevation. Unusually dense vegetation and warm temperatures accelerated southern Sierran evapotranspiration in 2012–2015, intensifying overdraft and compounding die-off by an estimated 55%. Climate change is expected to further amplify evapotranspiration and moisture overdraft during drought, potentially increasing Sierran tree death during drought by ~15–20% °C−1. Deep soil drying, caused by high evaporation, can explain California forest die-off in the droughts during 2012–2015, according to analyses of patterns of die-off and moisture deficit.

Persistence of dissolved organic matter explained by molecular changes during its passage through soil

Abstract: Dissolved organic matter affects fundamental biogeochemical processes in the soil such as nutrient cycling and organic matter storage. The current paradigm is that processing of dissolved organic matter converges to recalcitrant molecules (those that resist degradation) of low molecular mass and high molecular diversity through biotic and abiotic processes. Here we demonstrate that the molecular composition and properties of dissolved organic matter continuously change during soil passage and propose that this reflects a continual shifting of its sources. Using ultrahigh-resolution mass spectrometry and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, we studied the molecular changes of dissolved organic matter from the soil surface to 60 cm depth in 20 temperate grassland communities in soil type Eutric Fluvisol. Applying a semi-quantitative approach, we observed that plant-derived molecules were first broken down into molecules containing a large proportion of low-molecular-mass compounds. These low-molecular-mass compounds became less abundant during soil passage, whereas larger molecules, depleted in plant-related ligno-cellulosic structures, became more abundant. These findings indicate that the small plant-derived molecules were preferentially consumed by microorganisms and transformed into larger microbial-derived molecules. This suggests that dissolved organic matter is not intrinsically recalcitrant but instead persists in soil as a result of simultaneous consumption, transformation and formation. Dissolved organic matter is persistent in soil owing to continuous consumption and transformation rather than owing to its recalcitrant molecular properties, according to analyses of molecular changes of dissolved organic matter as it passes through soil.

Evidence of supershear during the 2018 magnitude 7.5 Palu earthquake from space geodesy

Abstract: A magnitude 7.5 earthquake hit the city of Palu in Sulawesi, Indonesia on 28 September 2018 at 10:02:43 (coordinated universal time). It was followed a few minutes later by a 4–7-m-high tsunami. Palu is situated in a narrow pull-apart basin surrounded by high mountains of up to 2,000 m altitude. This morphology has been created by a releasing bend in the Palu-Koro fault, a rapidly moving left-lateral strike-slip fault. Here we present observations derived from optical and radar satellite imagery that constrain the ground surface displacements associated with the earthquake in great detail. Mapping of the main rupture and associated secondary structures shows that the slip initiated on a structurally complex and previously unknown fault to the north, extended southwards over 180 km and passed through two major releasing bends. The 30 km section of the rupture south of Palu city is extremely linear, and slightly offset from the mapped geological fault at the surface. This part of the rupture accommodates a large and smooth surface slip of 4–7 m, with no shallow slip deficit. Almost no aftershock seismicity was recorded from this section of the fault. As these characteristics are similar to those from known supershear segments, we conclude that the Palu earthquake probably ruptured this segment at supershear velocities. The devastating 2018 magnitude 7.5 earthquake in Palu, Indonesia, ruptured at supershear speeds according to evidence from space geodesy.

Two decades of glacier mass loss along the Andes

Abstract: Andean glaciers are among the fastest shrinking and largest contributors to sea level rise on Earth. They also represent crucial water resources in many tropical and semi-arid mountain catchments. Yet the magnitude of the recent ice loss is still debated. Here we present Andean glacier mass changes (from 10° N to 56° S) between 2000 and 2018 using time series of digital elevation models derived from ASTER stereo images. The total mass change over this period was −22.9 ± 5.9 Gt yr−1 (−0.72 ± 0.22 m w.e. yr−1 (m w.e., metres of water equivalent)), with the most negative mass balances in the Patagonian Andes (−0.78 ± 0.25 m w.e. yr−1) and the Tropical Andes (−0.42 ± 0.24 m w.e. yr−1), compared to relatively moderate losses (−0.28 ± 0.18 m w.e. yr−1) in the Dry Andes. Subperiod analysis (2000–2009 versus 2009–2018) revealed a steady mass loss in the tropics and south of 45° S. Conversely, a shift from a slightly positive to a strongly negative mass balance was measured between 26 and 45° S. In the latter region, the drastic glacier loss in recent years coincides with the extremely dry conditions since 2010 and partially helped to mitigate the negative hydrological impacts of this severe and sustained drought. These results provide a comprehensive, high-resolution and multidecadal data set of recent Andes-wide glacier mass changes that constitutes a relevant basis for the calibration and validation of hydrological and glaciological models intended to project future glacier changes and their hydrological impacts. Glaciers in the Andes have lost about 23 Gt of mass per year between 2000 and 2018, with the fastest loss in Patagonia, according to time series of digital elevation models that are based on ASTER stereo images.

Early and persistent supershear rupture of the 2018 magnitude 7.5 Palu earthquake

Abstract: The speed at which an earthquake rupture propagates affects its energy balance and ground shaking impact. Dynamic models of supershear earthquakes, which are faster than the speed of shear waves, often start at subshear speed and later run faster than Eshelby’s speed. Here we present robust evidence of an early and persistent supershear rupture at the sub-Eshelby speed of the 2018 magnitude 7.5 Palu, Indonesia, earthquake. Slowness-enhanced back-projection of teleseismic data provides a sharp image of the rupture process, along a path consistent with the surface rupture trace inferred by subpixel correlation of synthetic-aperture radar and satellite optical images. The rupture propagated at a sustained velocity of 4.1 km s–1 from its initiation to its end, despite large fault bends. The persistent supershear speed is further validated by seismological evidence of far-field Rayleigh Mach waves. The unusual features of this earthquake probe the connections between the rupture dynamics and fault structure. An early supershear transition could be promoted by fault roughness near the hypocentre. Steady rupture propagation at a speed unexpected in homogeneous media could result from the presence of a low-velocity damaged fault zone. Supershear rupture speed occurred at the devastating 2018 magnitude 7.5 Palu earthquake, Indonesia, according to back-projection of teleseismic data.

Craters, boulders and regolith of (101955) Bennu indicative of an old and dynamic surface

Abstract: Small, kilometre-sized near-Earth asteroids are expected to have young and frequently refreshed surfaces for two reasons: collisional disruptions are frequent in the main asteroid belt where they originate, and thermal or tidal processes act on them once they become near-Earth asteroids. Here we present early measurements of numerous large candidate impact craters on near-Earth asteroid (101955) Bennu by the OSIRIS-REx (Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security-Regolith Explorer) mission, which indicate a surface that is between 100 million and 1 billion years old, predating Bennu’s expected duration as a near-Earth asteroid. We also observe many fractured boulders, the morphology of which suggests an influence of impact or thermal processes over a considerable amount of time since the boulders were exposed at the surface. However, the surface also shows signs of more recent mass movement: clusters of boulders at topographic lows, a deficiency of small craters and infill of large craters. The oldest features likely record events from Bennu’s time in the main asteroid belt.

Higher frequency of Central Pacific El Niño events in recent decades relative to past centuries

Abstract: El Nino events differ substantially in their spatial pattern and intensity. Canonical Eastern Pacific El Nino events have sea surface temperature anomalies that are strongest in the far eastern equatorial Pacific, whereas peak ocean warming occurs further west during Central Pacific El Nino events. The event types differ in their impacts on the location and intensity of temperature and precipitation anomalies globally. Evidence is emerging that Central Pacific El Nino events have become more common, a trend that is projected by some studies to continue with ongoing climate change. Here we identify spatial and temporal patterns in observed sea surface temperatures that distinguish the evolution of Eastern and Central Pacific El Nino events in the tropical Pacific. We show that these patterns are recorded by a network of 27 seasonally resolved coral records, which we then use to reconstruct Central and Eastern Pacific El Nino activity for the past four centuries. We find a simultaneous increase in Central Pacific events and a decrease in Eastern Pacific events since the late twentieth century that leads to a ratio of Central to Eastern Pacific events that is unusual in a multicentury context. Compared to the past four centuries, the most recent 30 year period includes fewer, but more intense, Eastern Pacific El Nino events. Compared to the past few centuries, Central Pacific El Nino events have become more frequent, whereas the number of Eastern Pacific events has declined in the most recent decades, according to reconstructions from a network of seasonally resolved coral records.

Burma Terrane part of the Trans-Tethyan Arc during collision with India according to palaeomagnetic data.

Abstract: Convergence between the Indian and Asian plates has reshaped large parts of Asia, changing regional climate and biodiversity, yet geodynamic models fundamentally diverge on how convergence was accommodated since the India–Asia collision. Here we report palaeomagnetic data from the Burma Terrane, which is at the eastern edge of the collision zone and is famous for its Cretaceous amber biota, to better determine the evolution of the India–Asia collision. The Burma Terrane was part of a Trans-Tethyan island arc and stood at a near-equatorial southern latitude at ~95 Ma, suggesting island endemism for the Burmese amber biota. The Burma Terrane underwent significant clockwise rotation between ~80 and 50 Ma, causing its subduction margin to become hyper-oblique. Subsequently, it was translated northward on the Indian Plate by an exceptional distance of at least 2,000 km along a dextral strike-slip fault system in the east. Our reconstructions are only compatible with geodynamic models involving an initial collision of India with a near-equatorial Trans-Tethyan subduction system at ~60 Ma, followed by a later collision with the Asian margin. The Burma Terrane was part of a Trans-Tethyan island arc that began to collide with India 60 million years ago, according to palaeomagnetic data.

Shape of (101955) Bennu indicative of a rubble pile with internal stiffness.

Abstract: The shapes of asteroids reflect interplay between their interior properties and the processes responsible for their formation and evolution as they journey through the Solar System. Prior to the OSIRIS-REx (Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security–Regolith Explorer) mission, Earth-based radar imaging gave an overview of (101955) Bennu’s shape. Here we construct a high-resolution shape model from OSIRIS-REx images. We find that Bennu’s top-like shape, considerable macroporosity and prominent surface boulders suggest that it is a rubble pile. High-standing, north–south ridges that extend from pole to pole, many long grooves and surface mass wasting indicate some low levels of internal friction and/or cohesion. Our shape model indicates that, similar to other top-shaped asteroids, Bennu formed by reaccumulation and underwent past periods of fast spin, which led to its current shape. Today, Bennu might follow a different evolutionary pathway, with an interior stiffness that permits surface cracking and mass wasting. Near-Earth asteroid Bennu has a top-like shape with longitudinal ridges, macroporosity, prominent boulders and surface mass wasting, suggesting that it is a stiff rubble pile, according to early observations by the OSIRIS-REx mission.

Amazon forest response to CO2 fertilization dependent on plant phosphorus acquisition

Abstract: Global terrestrial models currently predict that the Amazon rainforest will continue to act as a carbon sink in the future, primarily owing to the rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration. Soil phosphorus impoverishment in parts of the Amazon basin largely controls its functioning, but the role of phosphorus availability has not been considered in global model ensembles—for example, during the Fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project. Here we simulate the planned free-air CO2 enrichment experiment AmazonFACE with an ensemble of 14 terrestrial ecosystem models. We show that phosphorus availability reduces the projected CO2-induced biomass carbon growth by about 50% to 79 ± 63 g C m−2 yr−1 over 15 years compared to estimates from carbon and carbon–nitrogen models. Our results suggest that the resilience of the region to climate change may be much less than previously assumed. Variation in the biomass carbon response among the phosphorus-enabled models is considerable, ranging from 5 to 140 g C m−2 yr−1, owing to the contrasting plant phosphorus use and acquisition strategies considered among the models. The Amazon forest response thus depends on the interactions and relative contributions of the phosphorus acquisition and use strategies across individuals, and to what extent these processes can be upregulated under elevated CO2.

Rapid expansion of northern peatlands and doubled estimate of carbon storage

Abstract: Northern peatlands are an integral part of the global carbon cycle—a strong sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide and source of methane. Increasing anthropogenic carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere are thought to strongly impact these environments, and yet, peatlands are not routinely included in Earth system models. Here we present a quantification of the sink and stock of northern peat carbon from the last glacial period through the pre-industrial period. Additional data and new algorithms for reconstructing the history of peat carbon accumulation and the timing of peatland initiation increased the estimate of total northern peat carbon stocks from 545 Gt to 1,055 Gt of carbon. Further, the post-glacial increases in peatland initiation rate and carbon accumulation rate are more abrupt than previously reported. Peatlands have been a strong carbon sink throughout the Holocene, but the atmospheric partial pressure of carbon dioxide has been relatively stable over this period. While processes such as permafrost thaw and coral reef development probably contributed some additional carbon to the atmosphere, we suggest that deep ocean upwelling was the most important mechanism for balancing the peatland sink and maintaining the observed stability. Northern peatlands are estimated to store more than 1,000 Gt of carbon, almost doubling previous estimates, according to a reconstruction of historical peat carbon accumulation.

Amplification of mega-heatwaves through heat torrents fuelled by upwind drought

Abstract: Mega-heatwaves are among the deadliest natural disasters in midlatitudes. During such events, the atmospheric circulation is typically governed by persistent anticyclones, enabling cloud-free conditions and advection of hot air. Dry soils in heatwave regions are also known to further contribute to the escalation of air temperatures. However, while local land–atmosphere feedbacks are well studied, the same does not apply to the influence of upwind areas, from where heat is advected. Here we investigate reanalysis data using a Lagrangian heat-tracking model to unravel the role of upwind land–atmosphere feedbacks during the two European mega-heatwaves of this century: the events in 2003 and 2010. Our analysis indicates that advected sensible heat can come in torrents, suddenly and intensely, leading to abrupt increases in air temperatures that further strengthen local land–atmosphere feedbacks via soil desiccation. During both mega-heatwaves, about 30% of the advected sensible heat was caused by the drought upwind. Since subtropical droughts are projected to aggravate during this century, in light of our results, this may be accompanied by consequent intensification of midlatitude mega-heatwaves. We therefore recommend considering not only local, but also upwind land cover and land-use management in the design of adaptation strategies against compound drought–heatwave events. The European mega-heatwaves in 2003 and 2010 were intensified by torrents of hot air that were transported in from desiccated regions upwind, suggests an analysis of observations and reanalysis data together with a Lagrangian heat-tracking framework.

West Antarctic ice loss influenced by internal climate variability and anthropogenic forcing

Abstract: Recent ice loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has been caused by ocean melting of ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea. Eastward wind anomalies at the shelf break enhance the import of warm Circumpolar Deep Water onto the Amundsen Sea continental shelf, which creates transient melting anomalies with an approximately decadal period. No anthropogenic influence on this process has been established. Here, we combine observations and climate model simulations to suggest that increased greenhouse gas forcing caused shelf-break winds to transition from mean easterlies in the 1920s to the near-zero mean zonal winds of the present day. Strong internal climate variability, primarily linked to the tropical Pacific, is superimposed on this forced trend. We infer that the Amundsen Sea experienced decadal ocean variability throughout the twentieth century, with warm anomalies gradually becoming more prevalent, offering a credible explanation for the ongoing ice loss. Existing climate model projections show that strong future greenhouse gas forcing creates persistent mean westerly shelf-break winds by 2100, suggesting a further enhancement of warm ocean anomalies. These wind changes are weaker under a scenario in which greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized. Anthropogenic changes in Antarctic shelf-break winds from the 1920s onwards have contributed to ice loss in the Amundsen Sea, along with natural variability, suggests an analysis of observations and model simulations.

Global-change controls on soil-carbon accumulation and loss in coastal vegetated ecosystems

Abstract: Coastal seagrass, mangrove and salt-marsh ecosystems—also termed blue-carbon ecosystems—play an important role in the global carbon cycle. Much of the organic carbon they store rests in soils that have accumulated over thousands of years. Rapidly changing climate and environmental conditions, including sea-level rise, warming, eutrophication and landscape development, will impact decomposition and thus the global reservoir of blue soil organic carbon. Yet, it remains unclear how these disturbances will affect the key biogeochemical mechanisms controlling decomposition—mineral protection, redox zonation, water content and movement, and plant–microbe interactions. We assess the spatial and temporal scales over which decomposition mechanisms operate and how their effectiveness may change following disturbances. We suggest that better integration of decomposition mechanisms into blue-carbon models may improve predictions of soil organic carbon stores and facilitate incorporation of coastal vegetated ecosystems into global budgets and management tools. Coastal vegetated ecosystems have experienced rapid changes in climate and environmental conditions. These changes have caused disturbances to the amount of carbon they store in soils by altering the decomposition process of organic carbon.

Possible climate transitions from breakup of stratocumulus decks under greenhouse warming

Abstract: Stratocumulus clouds cover 20% of the low-latitude oceans and are especially prevalent in the subtropics. They cool the Earth by shading large portions of its surface from sunlight. However, as their dynamical scales are too small to be resolvable in global climate models, predictions of their response to greenhouse warming have remained uncertain. Here we report how stratocumulus decks respond to greenhouse warming in large-eddy simulations that explicitly resolve cloud dynamics in a representative subtropical region. In the simulations, stratocumulus decks become unstable and break up into scattered clouds when CO_2 levels rise above 1,200 ppm. In addition to the warming from rising CO_2 levels, this instability triggers a surface warming of about 8 K globally and 10 K in the subtropics. Once the stratocumulus decks have broken up, they only re-form once CO_2 concentrations drop substantially below the level at which the instability first occurred. Climate transitions that arise from this instability may have contributed importantly to hothouse climates and abrupt climate changes in the geological past. Such transitions to a much warmer climate may also occur in the future if CO_2 levels continue to rise.

Direct observation of permafrost degradation and rapid soil carbon loss in tundra

Abstract: Evidence suggests that 5–15% of the vast pool of soil carbon stored in northern permafrost ecosystems could be emitted as greenhouse gases by 2100 under the current path of global warming. However, direct measurements of changes in soil carbon remain scarce, largely because ground subsidence that occurs as the permafrost soils begin to thaw confounds the traditional quantification of carbon pools based on fixed depths or soil horizons. This issue is overcome when carbon is quantified in relation to a fixed ash content, which uses the relatively stable mineral component of soil as a metric for pool comparisons through time. We applied this approach to directly measure soil carbon pool changes over five years in experimentally warmed and ambient tundra ecosystems at a site in Alaska where permafrost is degrading due to climate change. We show a loss of soil carbon of 5.4% per year (95% confidence interval: 1.0, 9.5) across the site. Our results point to lateral hydrological export as a potential pathway for these surprisingly large losses. This research highlights the potential to make repeat soil carbon pool measurements at sentinel sites across the permafrost region, as this feedback to climate change may be occurring faster than previously thought. Permafrost loses carbon at a faster rate than previously thought as climate warms, according to direct soil carbon observations over five years in the field in Alaska’s tundra ecosystem.

Global fire emissions buffered by the production of pyrogenic carbon

Abstract: Landscape fires burn 3–5 million km2 of the Earth’s surface annually. They emit 2.2 Pg of carbon per year to the atmosphere, but also convert a significant fraction of the burned vegetation biomass into pyrogenic carbon. Pyrogenic carbon can be stored in terrestrial and marine pools for centuries to millennia and therefore its production can be considered a mechanism for long-term carbon sequestration. Pyrogenic carbon stocks and dynamics are not considered in global carbon cycle models, which leads to systematic errors in carbon accounting. Here we present a comprehensive dataset of pyrogenic carbon production factors from field and experimental fires and merge this with the Global Fire Emissions Database to quantify the global pyrogenic carbon production flux. We found that 256 (uncertainty range: 196–340) Tg of biomass carbon was converted annually into pyrogenic carbon between 1997 and 2016. Our central estimate equates to 12% of the annual carbon emitted globally by landscape fires, which indicates that their emissions are buffered by pyrogenic carbon production. We further estimate that cumulative pyrogenic carbon production is 60 Pg since 1750, or 33–40% of the global biomass carbon lost through land use change in this period. Our results demonstrate that pyrogenic carbon production by landscape fires could be a significant, but overlooked, sink for atmospheric CO2. Pyrogenic carbon produced from vegetation fires could be a globally important carbon sink, which amounts to 12% of the carbon emitted from wildfires annually, according to a global fire emission database that incorporates the estimate of pyrogenic carbon.