False-Positive Psychology: Undisclosed Flexibility in Data Collection and Analysis Allows Presenting Anything as Significant
Reads0
Chats0
TLDR
It is shown that despite empirical psychologists’ nominal endorsement of a low rate of false-positive findings, flexibility in data collection, analysis, and reporting dramatically increases actual false- positive rates, and a simple, low-cost, and straightforwardly effective disclosure-based solution is suggested.Abstract:
In this article, we accomplish two things. First, we show that despite empirical psychologists' nominal endorsement of a low rate of false-positive findings (≤ .05), flexibility in data collection, analysis, and reporting dramatically increases actual false-positive rates. In many cases, a researcher is more likely to falsely find evidence that an effect exists than to correctly find evidence that it does not. We present computer simulations and a pair of actual experiments that demonstrate how unacceptably easy it is to accumulate (and report) statistically significant evidence for a false hypothesis. Second, we suggest a simple, low-cost, and straightforwardly effective disclosure-based solution to this problem. The solution involves six concrete requirements for authors and four guidelines for reviewers, all of which impose a minimal burden on the publication process.read more
Citations
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
Psychoinformatics: New Horizons at the Interface of the Psychological and Computing Sciences
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors focus on several areas where the application of informatics approaches has already paid large dividends, leading to advances including novel data-collection approaches, the adaptation of computational techniques and insights, enhanced aggregation and organization of psychological data, large-scale data mining and synthesis, and improved research and publication practices.
Journal ArticleDOI
Underlying Mechanisms of Gene-Environment Interactions in Externalizing Behavior: A Systematic Review and Search for Theoretical Mechanisms.
TL;DR: It is argued that one way to help resolve the problem is the development of theory-driven a priori hypotheses on which biopsychosocial mechanisms might underlie cG × E, and three possible explanatory mechanisms are described, based on extant literature on the concepts of emotional reactivity, reward sensitivity, and punishment sensitivity.
Journal ArticleDOI
The college journey and academic engagement: how metaphor use enhances identity-based motivation.
TL;DR: Drawing on identity-based motivation theory, it is hypothesized that strengthened current/possible identity connection would mediate the journey framing's motivating effect, which predicted students' academic engagement and an online sample's engagement with possible identities in other domains.
Journal ArticleDOI
Video Game Violence Use Among “Vulnerable” Populations: The Impact of Violent Games on Delinquency and Bullying Among Children with Clinically Elevated Depression or Attention Deficit Symptoms
TL;DR: The results did not support the hypothesis that children with elevated mental health symptoms constitute a “vulnerable” population for video game violence effects, and implications and suggestions for further research are provided.
Journal ArticleDOI
The statistical significance filter leads to overoptimistic expectations of replicability
TL;DR: The authors conducted seven direct replication attempts (268 participants in total) of a recent paper (Levy & Keller, 2013) and showed that the published claims are so noisy that even non-significant results are fully compatible with them.
References
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
The case for motivated reasoning.
TL;DR: It is proposed that motivation may affect reasoning through reliance on a biased set of cognitive processes--that is, strategies for accessing, constructing, and evaluating beliefs--that are considered most likely to yield the desired conclusion.
Why Most Published Research Findings Are False
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors discuss the implications of these problems for the conduct and interpretation of research and suggest that claimed research findings may often be simply accurate measures of the prevailing bias.
Journal ArticleDOI
Group sequential methods in the design and analysis of clinical trials
TL;DR: In this article, a group sequential design is proposed to divide patient entry into a number of equal-sized groups so that the decision to stop the trial or continue is based on repeated significance tests of the accumulated data after each group is evaluated.
Journal ArticleDOI
Measuring the Prevalence of Questionable Research Practices With Incentives for Truth Telling
TL;DR: It is found that the percentage of respondents who have engaged in questionable practices was surprisingly high, which suggests that some questionable practices may constitute the prevailing research norm.
Journal ArticleDOI
Attribution of success and failure revisited, or: The motivational bias is alive and well in attribution theory
TL;DR: The authors found that self-serving effects for both success and failure are obtained in most but not all experimental paradigms, and that these attributions are better understood in motivational than in information-processing terms.
Related Papers (5)
Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science
Alexander A. Aarts,Joanna E. Anderson,Christopher J. Anderson,Peter Raymond Attridge,Peter Raymond Attridge,Angela S. Attwood,Jordan Axt,Molly Babel,Štěpán Bahník,Erica Baranski,Michael Barnett-Cowan,Elizabeth Bartmess,Jennifer S. Beer,Raoul Bell,Heather Bentley,Leah Beyan,Grace Binion,Grace Binion,Denny Borsboom,Annick Bosch,Frank A. Bosco,Sara Bowman,Mark J. Brandt,Erin L Braswell,Hilmar Brohmer,Benjamin T. Brown,Kristina G. Brown,Jovita Brüning,Jovita Brüning,Ann Calhoun-Sauls,Shannon P. Callahan,Elizabeth Chagnon,Jesse Chandler,Jesse Chandler,Christopher R. Chartier,Felix Cheung,Felix Cheung,Cody D. Christopherson,Linda Cillessen,Russ Clay,Hayley M. D. Cleary,Mark D. Cloud,Michael Conn,Johanna Cohoon,Simon Columbus,Andreas Cordes,Giulio Costantini,Leslie Cramblet Alvarez,Ed Cremata,Jan Crusius,Jamie DeCoster,Michelle A. DeGaetano,Nicolás Delia Penna,Bobby Den Bezemer,Marie K. Deserno,Olivia Devitt,Laura Dewitte,David G. Dobolyi,Geneva T. Dodson,M. Brent Donnellan,Ryan Donohue,Rebecca A. Dore,Angela Rachael Dorrough,Angela Rachael Dorrough,Anna Dreber,Michelle Dugas,Elizabeth W. Dunn,Kayleigh E Easey,Sylvia Eboigbe,Casey Eggleston,Jo Embley,Sacha Epskamp,Timothy M. Errington,Vivien Estel,Frank J. Farach,Jenelle Feather,Anna Fedor,Belén Fernández-Castilla,Susann Fiedler,James G. Field,Stanka A. Fitneva,Taru Flagan,Amanda L. Forest,Eskil Forsell,Joshua D. Foster,Michael C. Frank,Rebecca S. Frazier,Heather M. Fuchs,Philip A. Gable,Jeff Galak,Elisa Maria Galliani,Anup Gampa,Sara García,Douglas Gazarian,Elizabeth Gilbert,Roger Giner-Sorolla,Andreas Glöckner,Andreas Glöckner,Lars Goellner,Jin X. Goh,Rebecca M. Goldberg,Patrick T. Goodbourn,Shauna Gordon-McKeon,Bryan Gorges,Jessie Gorges,Justin Goss,Jesse Graham,James A. Grange,Jeremy R. Gray,Chris H.J. Hartgerink,Joshua K. Hartshorne,Fred Hasselman,Timothy Hayes,Emma Heikensten,Felix Henninger,Felix Henninger,John Hodsoll,Taylor Holubar,Gea Hoogendoorn,Denise J. Humphries,Cathy On-Ying Hung,Nathali Immelman,Vanessa C. Irsik,Georg Jahn,Frank Jäkel,Marc Jekel,Magnus Johannesson,Larissa Gabrielle Johnson,David J. Johnson,Kate M. Johnson,William J. Johnston,Kai J. Jonas,Jennifer A. Joy-Gaba,Heather Barry Kappes,Kim Kelso,Mallory C. Kidwell,Seung K. Kim,Matthew W. Kirkhart,Bennett Kleinberg,Bennett Kleinberg,Goran Knežević,Franziska Maria Kolorz,Jolanda J. Kossakowski,Robert Krause,Job Krijnen,Tim Kuhlmann,Yoram K. Kunkels,Megan M. Kyc,Calvin K. Lai,Aamir Laique,Daniel Lakens,Kristin A. Lane,Bethany Lassetter,Ljiljana B. Lazarević,Etienne P. Le Bel,Key Jung Lee,Minha Lee,Kristi M. Lemm,Carmel A. Levitan,Melissa Lewis,Lin Lin,Stephanie C. Lin,Matthias Lippold,Darren Loureiro,Ilse Luteijn,Sean P. Mackinnon,Heather N. Mainard,Denise C. Marigold,Daniel P. Martin,Tylar Martinez,E. J. Masicampo,Joshua J. Matacotta,Maya B. Mathur,Michael May,Michael May,Nicole Mechin,Pranjal H. Mehta,Johannes M. Meixner,Johannes M. Meixner,Alissa Melinger,Jeremy K. Miller,Mallorie Miller,Katherine Moore,Katherine Moore,Marcus Möschl,Matt Motyl,Stephanie M. Müller,Marcus R. Munafò,Koen Ilja Neijenhuijs,Taylor Nervi,Gandalf Nicolas,Gustav Nilsonne,Gustav Nilsonne,Brian A. Nosek,Brian A. Nosek,Michèle B. Nuijten,Catherine Olsson,Catherine Olsson,Colleen Osborne,Lutz Ostkamp,Misha Pavel,Ian S. Penton-Voak,Olivia Perna,Cyril Pernet,Marco Perugini,R. Nathan Pipitone,Michael C. Pitts,Franziska Plessow,Franziska Plessow,Jason M. Prenoveau,Rima-Maria Rahal,Rima-Maria Rahal,Kate A. Ratliff,David Reinhard,Frank Renkewitz,Ashley A. Ricker,Anastasia E. Rigney,Andrew M Rivers,Mark A. Roebke,Abraham M. Rutchick,Robert S. Ryan,Onur Sahin,Anondah R. Saide,Gillian M. Sandstrom,David Santos,David Santos,Rebecca Saxe,René Schlegelmilch,René Schlegelmilch,Kathleen Schmidt,Sabine Scholz,Larissa Seibel,Dylan Selterman,Samuel Shaki,William B. Simpson,H. Colleen Sinclair,Jeanine L. M. Skorinko,Agnieszka Slowik,Joel S. Snyder,Courtney K. Soderberg,Carina Sonnleitner,Nick Spencer,Jeffrey R. Spies,Sara Steegen,Stefan Stieger,Nina Strohminger,Gavin Brent Sullivan,Thomas Talhelm,Megan Tapia,Anniek M. te Dorsthorst,Manuela Thomae,Manuela Thomae,Sarah L. Thomas,Pia Tio,Frits Traets,Steve N.H. Tsang,Francis Tuerlinckx,Paul J. Turchan,Milan Valášek,Anna E. Van't Veer,Robbie C. M. van Aert,Marcel A.L.M. van Assen,Riet van Bork,Mathijs Van De Ven,Don van den Bergh,Marije van der Hulst,Roel van Dooren,Johnny van Doorn,Daan R. van Renswoude,Hedderik van Rijn,Wolf Vanpaemel,Alejandro Vásquez Echeverría,Melissa Vazquez,Natalia Vélez,Marieke Vermue,Mark Verschoor,Michelangelo Vianello,Martin Voracek,Gina Vuu,Eric-Jan Wagenmakers,Joanneke Weerdmeester,Ashlee Welsh,Erin C. Westgate,Joeri Wissink,Michael J. Wood,Andy T. Woods,Andy T. Woods,Emily M. Wright,Sining Wu,Marcel Zeelenberg,Kellylynn Zuni +290 more