Large-scale features and evaluation of the PMIP4-CMIP6 midHolocene simulations
Chris Brierley,Anni Zhao,Sandy P. Harrison,Pascale Braconnot,Charles Williams,Charles Williams,David Thornalley,Xiaoxu Shi,Jean-Yves Peterschmitt,Rumi Ohgaito,Darrell S. Kaufman,Masa Kageyama,Julia C. Hargreaves,M. P. Erb,Julien Emile-Geay,Roberta D'Agostino,Deepak Chandan,Matthieu Carré,Matthieu Carré,Partrick J. Bartlein,Weipeng Zheng,Zhongshi Zhang,Qiong Zhang,Hu Yang,Evgeny Volodin,Robert A. Tomas,Cody C. Routson,W. Richard Peltier,Bette L. Otto-Bliesner,Polina Morozova,Nicholas P. McKay,Gerrit Lohmann,Allegra N. LeGrande,Chuncheng Guo,Jian Cao,Esther C. Brady,James D. Annan,Ayako Abe-Ouchi,Ayako Abe-Ouchi +38 more
TLDR
The PMIP4-CMIP6 ensemble for the mid-Holocene has a global mean temperature change of −0.3 ǫK, which is − 0.2 ôK cooler than the previous generation (PMIP3 -CMIP5) of simulations as mentioned in this paper.Abstract:
. The mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) is a standard time period for the evaluation of the simulated response of global climate models using palaeoclimate reconstructions. The latest mid-Holocene simulations are a palaeoclimate entry card for the Palaeoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) component of the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) – hereafter referred to as PMIP4-CMIP6. Here we provide an initial analysis and evaluation of the results of the experiment for the mid-Holocene. We show that state-of-the-art models produce climate changes that are broadly consistent with theory and observations, including increased summer warming of the Northern Hemisphere and associated shifts in tropical rainfall. Many features of the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations were present in the previous generation (PMIP3-CMIP5) of simulations. The PMIP4-CMIP6 ensemble for the mid-Holocene has a global mean temperature change of −0.3 K, which is −0.2 K cooler than the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations predominantly as a result of the prescription of realistic greenhouse gas concentrations in PMIP4-CMIP6. Biases in the magnitude and the sign of regional responses identified in PMIP3-CMIP5, such as the amplification of the northern African monsoon, precipitation changes over Europe, and simulated aridity in mid-Eurasia, are still present in the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations. Despite these issues, PMIP4-CMIP6 and the mid-Holocene provide an opportunity both for quantitative evaluation and derivation of emergent constraints on the hydrological cycle, feedback strength, and potentially climate sensitivity.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Holocene global mean surface temperature, a multi-method reconstruction approach
Darrell S. Kaufman,Nicholas P. McKay,Cody C. Routson,M. P. Erb,Christoph Dätwyler,Philipp Sommer,Oliver Heiri,Basil A. S. Davis +7 more
TL;DR: Five different statistical methods were applied to reconstruct the GMST of the past 12,000 years (Holocene) and the results were aggregated to generate a multi-method ensemble of plausible GMST and latitudinal-zone temperature reconstructions with a realistic range of uncertainties.
Journal ArticleDOI
Globally resolved surface temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum.
Matthew B. Osman,Jessica E. Tierney,Jiang Zhu,Robert Tardif,Gregory J. Hakim,Jonathan King,Christopher J. Poulsen +6 more
TL;DR: In this paper, a proxy-constrained, full-field reanalysis of surface temperature change spanning the Last Glacial Maximum to present at 200-year resolution is presented.
Journal ArticleDOI
Seasonal origin of the thermal maxima at the Holocene and the last interglacial
TL;DR: The authors showed that global mean annual sea surface temperatures have been steadily increasing since the start of the Holocene (about 12,000 years ago), first in response to retreating ice sheets (12 to 6.5 thousand years ago) and then as a result of rising greenhouse gas concentrations (0.25 −0.21 degrees Celsius over the past 6,500 years or so).
Journal ArticleDOI
Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate : Results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)-Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4)
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner,Esther C. Brady,Anni Zhao,Chris Brierley,Yarrow Axford,Emilie Capron,Aline Govin,Jeremy S. Hoffman,Jeremy S. Hoffman,Elizabeth B. Isaacs,Masa Kageyama,Paolo Scussolini,Polychronis C Tzedakis,Charles Williams,Eric W. Wolff,Ayako Abe-Ouchi,Pascale Braconnot,Silvana Ramos Buarque,Jian Cao,Anne de Vernal,Maria-Vittoria Guarino,Chuncheng Guo,Allegra N. LeGrande,Gerrit Lohmann,Katrin J. Meissner,Laurie Menviel,Polina Morozova,Kerim H. Nisancioglu,Kerim H. Nisancioglu,Ryouta O'ishi,David Salas y Mélia,Xaoxu Shi,Marie Sicard,Louise C. Sime,Christian Stepanek,Robert A. Tomas,Evgeny Volodin,Nicholas K. H. Yeung,Qiong Zhang,Zhongshi Zhang,Zhongshi Zhang,Weipeng Zheng +41 more
TL;DR: In this paper, a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which have completed the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) experiments, is presented.
Pacific Climate Change and ENSO activity in the mid-Holocene
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that a reduction to the stochastic forcing of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) wrought by Pacific-wide climate changes in response to mid-Holocene (6000 BP) orbital forcing is a viable hypothesis for the observed reduction of ENSO activity during that time.
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