Pollen-based continental climate reconstructions at 6 and 21 ka: A global synthesis
Patrick J. Bartlein,Sandy P. Harrison,Sandy P. Harrison,Simon Brewer,Simon Connor,Basil A. S. Davis,Konrad Gajewski,Joel Guiot,T I Harrison-Prentice,A S Henderson,Odile Peyron,Iain Colin Prentice,Iain Colin Prentice,Marko Scholze,Heikki Seppä,Bryan N. Shuman,Shinya Sugita,Robert S. Thompson,A. E. Viau,John W. Williams,Haibin Wu +20 more
TLDR
In this article, the mid-Holocene (MH, around 6 ka) and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, around 21 ka) were compared with palaeoclimate simulations currently being carried out as part of the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Abstract:
Subfossil pollen and plant macrofossil data derived from 14 C-dated sediment profiles can provide quantitative information on glacial and interglacial cli- mates. The data allow climate variables related to growing- season warmth, winter cold, and plant-available moisture to be reconstructed. Continental-scale reconstructions have been made for the mid-Holocene (MH, around 6 ka) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, around 21 ka), allowing comparison with palaeoclimate simulations currently being carried out as part of the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The synthesis of the available MH and LGM climate recon- structions and their uncertainties, obtained using modern- analogue, regression and model-inversion techniques, is presented for four temperature variables and two moisture variables. Reconstructions of the same variables based onread more
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Evaluation of climate models using palaeoclimatic data
Pascale Braconnot,Sandy P. Harrison,Masa Kageyama,Patrick J. Bartlein,Valérie Masson-Delmotte,Ayako Abe-Ouchi,Bette L. Otto-Bliesner,Yan Zhao +7 more
TL;DR: The Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (POMIP) as discussed by the authors evaluated model performance against the geologic record of environmental responses to climate changes and provided a unique opportunity to test model performance outside this limited climate range.
Journal ArticleDOI
Clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity
Sandrine Bony,Bjorn Stevens,Dargan M. W. Frierson,Christian Jakob,Masa Kageyama,Robert Pincus,Robert Pincus,Theodore G. Shepherd,Steven C. Sherwood,A. Pier Siebesma,Adam H. Sobel,Masahiro Watanabe,Mark J. Webb +12 more
TL;DR: In this paper, four central research questions -now tractable through advances in models, concepts and observations -were proposed to accelerate future progress in understanding the interactions between clouds, circulation and climate.
Journal ArticleDOI
An assessment of Earth's climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence
Steven C. Sherwood,Mark J. Webb,James D. Annan,Kyle C. Armour,Piers M. Forster,Julia C. Hargreaves,Gabriele C. Hegerl,S A Klein,Kate Marvel,Kate Marvel,Eelco J. Rohling,Eelco J. Rohling,Masahiro Watanabe,Timothy Andrews,Pascale Braconnot,Christopher S. Bretherton,Gavin L. Foster,Zeke Hausfather,A. S. von der Heydt,Reto Knutti,Thorsten Mauritsen,Joel R. Norris,Cristian Proistosescu,Maria Rugenstein,Gavin A. Schmidt,Katarzyna B. Tokarska,Mark D. Zelinka +26 more
TL;DR: Evidence relevant to Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO2, characterized by an effective sensitivity S, is assessed, using a Bayesian approach to produce a probability density function for S given all the evidence, and promising avenues for further narrowing the range are identified.
Journal ArticleDOI
Global climate evolution during the last deglaciation
Peter U. Clark,Jeremy D. Shakun,Paul A. Baker,Patrick J. Bartlein,Simon Brewer,Edward J. Brook,Anders E. Carlson,Hai Cheng,Darrell S. Kaufman,Zhengyu Liu,Zhengyu Liu,Thomas M Marchitto,Alan C. Mix,Carrie Morrill,Bette L. Otto-Bliesner,Katharina Pahnke,James M. Russell,Cathy Whitlock,Jess F. Adkins,Jessica L. Blois,Jorie Clark,Steven M. Colman,William B Curry,Ben P. Flower,Feng He,Thomas C. Johnson,Jean Lynch-Stieglitz,Vera Markgraf,Jerry F. McManus,Jerry X. Mitrovica,Patricio I. Moreno,John W. Williams +31 more
TL;DR: A major effort by the paleoclimate research community to characterize changes through the development of well-dated, high-resolution records of the deep and intermediate ocean as well as surface climate indicates that the superposition of two modes explains much of the variability in regional and global climate during the last deglaciation.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate refugia: joint inference from fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeography
Daniel G. Gavin,Matthew C. Fitzpatrick,Paul F. Gugger,Katy D. Heath,Francisco Rodríguez-Sánchez,Solomon Z. Dobrowski,Arndt Hampe,Arndt Hampe,Feng Sheng Hu,Michael B. Ashcroft,Patrick J. Bartlein,Jessica L. Blois,Bryan C. Carstens,Edward Byrd Davis,Guillaume de Lafontaine,Mary E. Edwards,Matias Fernandez,Paul D. Henne,Erin M. Herring,Zachary A. Holden,Woo-Seok Kong,Jianquan Liu,Donatella Magri,Nicholas J. Matzke,Matt S. McGlone,Frédérik Saltré,Alycia L. Stigall,Yi-Hsin Erica Tsai,John W. Williams +28 more
TL;DR: A critical research need is to better integrate and reconcile the three major lines of evidence used to infer the existence of past refugia - fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeographic surveys - in order to characterize the complex spatiotemporal trajectories of species and populations in and out ofRefugia.
References
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TL;DR: The paper discusses first how autocorrelation in ecological variables can be described and measured, and ways are presented of explicitly introducing spatial structures into ecological models, and two approaches are proposed.
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