Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia
Michael E. Mann,Zhihua Zhang,Malcolm K. Hughes,Raymond S. Bradley,Sonya K. Miller,Scott Rutherford,Fenbiao Ni +6 more
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TLDR
The results extend previous conclusions that recent Northern Hemisphere surface temperature increases are likely anomalous in a long-term context to at least the past 1,700 years, but with additional strong caveats.Abstract:
Following the suggestions of a recent National Research Council report [NRC (National Research Council) (2006) Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years (Natl Acad Press, Washington, DC).], we reconstruct surface temperature at hemispheric and global scale for much of the last 2,000 years using a greatly expanded set of proxy data for decadal-to-centennial climate changes, recently updated instrumental data, and complementary methods that have been thoroughly tested and validated with model simulation experiments. Our results extend previous conclusions that recent Northern Hemisphere surface temperature increases are likely anomalous in a long-term context. Recent warmth appears anomalous for at least the past 1,300 years whether or not tree-ring data are used. If tree-ring data are used, the conclusion can be extended to at least the past 1,700 years, but with additional strong caveats. The reconstructed amplitude of change over past centuries is greater than hitherto reported, with somewhat greater Medieval warmth in the Northern Hemisphere, albeit still not reaching recent levels.read more
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Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly
Michael E. Mann,Zhihua Zhang,Scott Rutherford,Raymond S. Bradley,Malcolm K. Hughes,Drew Shindell,Caspar M. Ammann,Greg Faluvegi,Fenbiao Ni +8 more
TL;DR: The Medieval period is found to display warmth that matches or exceeds that of the past decade in some regions, but which falls well below recent levels globally, and the Little Ice Age is marked by a tendency for La Niña–like conditions in the tropical Pacific.
Supporting Online Material for Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly
Journal ArticleDOI
A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years
TL;DR: Recon reconstructions of the past 1500 years suggest that recent warming is unprecedented in that time, and regional and global temperature anomalies for the past 11,300 years from 73 globally distributed records are provided.
Journal ArticleDOI
Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia
Moinuddin Ahmed,Kevin J. Anchukaitis,Kevin J. Anchukaitis,Asfawossen Asrat,H. P. Borgaonkar,Martina Braida,Brendan M. Buckley,Ulf Büntgen,Brian M. Chase,Brian M. Chase,Duncan A. Christie,Duncan A. Christie,Edward R. Cook,Mark A. J. Curran,Mark A. J. Curran,Henry F. Diaz,Jan Esper,Ze-Xin Fan,Narayan Prasad Gaire,Quansheng Ge,Joelle Gergis,J. Fidel González-Rouco,Hugues Goosse,Stefan W. Grab,Nicholas E. Graham,Rochelle Graham,Martin Grosjean,Sami Hanhijärvi,Darrell S. Kaufman,Thorsten Kiefer,Katsuhiko Kimura,Atte Korhola,Paul J. Krusic,Antonio Lara,Antonio Lara,Anne-Marie Lézine,Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist,Andrew Lorrey,Jürg Luterbacher,Valérie Masson-Delmotte,Danny McCarroll,Joseph R. McConnell,Nicholas P. McKay,Mariano S. Morales,Andrew D. Moy,Andrew D. Moy,Robert Mulvaney,Ignacio A. Mundo,Takeshi Nakatsuka,David J. Nash,David J. Nash,Raphael Neukom,Sharon E. Nicholson,Hans Oerter,Jonathan G. Palmer,Jonathan G. Palmer,Steven J. Phipps,María Prieto,Andrés Rivera,Masaki Sano,Mirko Severi,Timothy M. Shanahan,Xuemei Shao,Feng Shi,Michael Sigl,Jason E. Smerdon,Olga Solomina,Eric J. Steig,Barbara Stenni,Meloth Thamban,Valerie Trouet,Chris S. M. Turney,Mohammed Umer,Tas van Ommen,Tas van Ommen,Dirk Verschuren,A. E. Viau,Ricardo Villalba,Bo Møllesøe Vinther,Lucien von Gunten,Sebastian Wagner,Eugene R. Wahl,Heinz Wanner,Johannes P. Werner,James W. C. White,Koh Yasue,Eduardo Zorita +86 more
TL;DR: The authors reconstructed past temperatures for seven continental-scale regions during the past one to two millennia and found that the most coherent feature in nearly all of the regional temperature reconstructions is a long-term cooling trend, which ended late in the nineteenth century.
Journal ArticleDOI
Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years
Michael Sigl,Mai Winstrup,Joseph R. McConnell,Kees C. Welten,Gill Plunkett,Francis Ludlow,Ulf Büntgen,Marc W. Caffee,Nathan Chellman,Dorthe Dahl-Jensen,Hubertus Fischer,Sepp Kipfstuhl,Conor Kostick,Olivia J. Maselli,Florian Mekhaldi,Robert Mulvaney,Raimund Muscheler,Daniel R. Pasteris,Jonathan R. Pilcher,Matthew W. Salzer,Simon Schüpbach,J. P. Steffensen,Bo Møllesøe Vinther,Thomas E. Woodruff +23 more
TL;DR: It is shown that large eruptions in the tropics and high latitudes were primary drivers of interannual-to-decadal temperature variability in the Northern Hemisphere during the past 2,500 years and cooling was proportional to the magnitude of volcanic forcing.
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