Tropical explosive volcanic eruptions can trigger El Niño by cooling tropical Africa.
Myriam Khodri,Takeshi Izumo,Takeshi Izumo,Jérôme Vialard,Serge Janicot,Christophe Cassou,Matthieu Lengaigne,Matthieu Lengaigne,Juliette Mignot,Guillaume Gastineau,Eric Guilyardi,Eric Guilyardi,Nicolas Lebas,Alan Robock,Michael J. McPhaden +14 more
TLDR
It is shown that an El Niño tends to peak during the year following large eruptions in simulations of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), and that a Pinatubo-like eruption cools tropical Africa and drives westerly wind anomalies in the Pacific favouring anEl Niño response.Abstract:
Stratospheric aerosols from large tropical explosive volcanic eruptions backscatter shortwave radiation and reduce the global mean surface temperature. Observations suggest that they also favour an El Nino within 2 years following the eruption. Modelling studies have, however, so far reached no consensus on either the sign or physical mechanism of El Nino response to volcanism. Here we show that an El Nino tends to peak during the year following large eruptions in simulations of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Targeted climate model simulations further emphasize that Pinatubo-like eruptions tend to shorten La Ninas, lengthen El Ninos and induce anomalous warming when occurring during neutral states. Volcanically induced cooling in tropical Africa weakens the West African monsoon, and the resulting atmospheric Kelvin wave drives equatorial westerly wind anomalies over the western Pacific. This wind anomaly is further amplified by air-sea interactions in the Pacific, favouring an El Nino-like response.El Nino tends to follow 2 years after volcanic eruptions, but the physical mechanism behind this phenomenon is unclear. Here the authors use model simulations to show that a Pinatubo-like eruption cools tropical Africa and drives westerly wind anomalies in the Pacific favouring an El Nino response.read more
Citations
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El Niño–Southern Oscillation complexity
Axel Timmermann,Axel Timmermann,Soon Il An,Jong-Seong Kug,Fei-Fei Jin,Wenju Cai,Wenju Cai,Wenju Cai,Antonietta Capotondi,Antonietta Capotondi,Kim M. Cobb,Matthieu Lengaigne,Michael J. McPhaden,Malte F. Stuecker,Malte F. Stuecker,Karl Stein,Andrew T. Wittenberg,Kyung-Sook Yun,Tobias Bayr,Han Ching Chen,Yoshimitsu Chikamoto,Boris Dewitte,Dietmar Dommenget,Pamela R. Grothe,Eric Guilyardi,Eric Guilyardi,Yoo-Geun Ham,Michiya Hayashi,Sarah Ineson,Daehyun Kang,Sunyong Kim,WonMoo Kim,June-Yi Lee,Tim Li,Jing-Jia Luo,Shayne McGregor,Yann Planton,Scott B. Power,Harun Rashid,Hong Li Ren,Agus Santoso,Ken Takahashi,Alexander Todd,Guomin Wang,Guojian Wang,Ruihuang Xie,Woo Hyun Yang,Sang-Wook Yeh,Jin-Ho Yoon,Elke Zeller,Xuebin Zhang +50 more
TL;DR: A synopsis of the current understanding of the spatio-temporal complexity of this important climate mode and its influence on the Earth system is provided and a unifying framework that identifies the key factors for this complexity is proposed.
ENSO representation in climate models: from CMIP3 to CMIP5
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Current and emerging developments in subseasonal to decadal prediction
William J. Merryfield,Johanna Baehr,Lauriane Batté,Emily Becker,Amy H. Butler,Caio A. S. Coelho,Gokhan Danabasoglu,Paul A. Dirmeyer,Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes,Daniela I. V. Domeisen,Laura Ferranti,Tatiana Ilynia,Arun Kumar,Wolfgang A. Müller,Michel Rixen,Andrew W. Robertson,Doug Smith,Yuhei Takaya,Matthias Tuma,Frederic Vitart,Christopher J. White,Mariano Sebastián Alvarez,Constantin Ardilouze,Hannah Attard,Cory Baggett,Magdalena Balmaseda,Asmerom F Beraki,Partha S. Bhattacharjee,Roberto Bilbao,Felipe M. de Andrade,Michael J. DeFlorio,Leandro B. Díaz,Muhammad Azhar Ehsan,Georgios Fragkoulidis,Sam Grainger,Benjamin W. Green,Momme C. Hell,Johnna M. Infanti,Katharina Isensee,Takahito Kataoka,Ben P. Kirtman,Nicholas P. Klingaman,June-Yi Lee,Kirsten Mayer,Roseanna C. McKay,Jennifer Mecking,Douglas E. Miller,Nele Neddermann,Ching Ho Justin Ng,Albert Ossó,Klaus Pankatz,Simon C. Peatman,Kathy Pegion,Judith Perlwitz,G. Cristina Recalde-Coronel,Annika Reintges,Christoph Renkl,Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali,Aaron Spring,Cristiana Stan,Y. Qiang Sun,Carly R. Tozer,Nicolas Vigaud,Steven J. Woolnough,Stephen Yeager +64 more
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Changing El Niño–Southern Oscillation in a warming climate
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TL;DR: The authors synthesize advances in observed and projected changes of multiple aspects of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), including the processes behind such changes, and reveal projected increases in ENSO magnitude under greenhouse warming, as well as an eastward shift and intensification of the Pacific-North American and Pacific-South American patterns.
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Causes of climate change over the historical record
Gabriele C. Hegerl,Stefan Brönnimann,Tim Cowan,Andrew R. Friedman,Ed Hawkins,Carley Iles,Wolfgang A. Müller,Andrew Schurer,Sabine Undorf +8 more
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