Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

About: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research is a facility organization based out in Potsdam, Germany. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Climate change & Global warming. The organization has 1519 authors who have published 5098 publications receiving 367023 citations.

Index Theory of One Dimensional Quantum Walks and Cellular Automata

Abstract: If a one-dimensional quantum lattice system is subject to one step of a reversible discrete-time dynamics, it is intuitive that as much “quantum information” as moves into any given block of cells from the left, has to exit that block to the right. For two types of such systems — namely quantum walks and cellular automata — we make this intuition precise by defining an index, a quantity that measures the “net flow of quantum information” through the system. The index supplies a complete characterization of two properties of the discrete dynamics. First, two systems S 1, S 2 can be “pieced together”, in the sense that there is a system S which acts like S 1 in one region and like S 2 in some other region, if and only if S 1 and S 2 have the same index. Second, the index labels connected components of such systems: equality of the index is necessary and sufficient for the existence of a continuous deformation of S 1 into S 2. In the case of quantum walks, the index is integer-valued, whereas for cellular automata, it takes values in the group of positive rationals. In both cases, the map $${S \mapsto {\rm ind} S}$$ is a group homomorphism if composition of the discrete dynamics is taken as the group law of the quantum systems. Systems with trivial index are precisely those which can be realized by partitioned unitaries, and the prototypes of systems with non-trivial index are shifts.

Vegetation dynamics in central european forest ecosystems (near-natural as well as managed) after storm events

Abstract: All over the world forests and woodlands are damaged or reset to initial stages by fire, insect outbreaks or storms. In Central Europe storm events are the most important natural disturbances affecting stand structures of both natural and managed forests and yet only a few studies exist on long-term forest development following the destruction of the tree layer by a storm. This paper presents a permanent plot study established in 1988 in the Bavarian Forest National Park (SE Germany) on areas, where the tree layer had been destructed by a storm on August 1, 1983. The records concerning (1) floristic composition (spermatophytes, pteridophytes, bryophytes, lichens) and cover degree, (2) location and shape of each tree higher than 1 meter (height, diameter at breast height) including position of fallen trees and (3) number of seedlings and saplings were taken in 1988, 1993 and 1998. Two windfall areas, situated next to each other in the same broad and flat valley bottom on wet soils under local cold climate conditions (potential as well as recent vegetation:Calamagrostio villosae-Piceetum bazzanietosum) were analyzed, one of them with completely free development after the storm event (“untouched”), the other with dead wood cleared off after the event, but thereafter with free development (“cleared”). The vegetation analysis separated two major trends in vegetation dynamics: (1) On the cleared plots with intensive soil-surface disturbance (removal of the damaged wood) the species composition changed towards pioneer herb vegetation (Rubus sp.), and pioneer forest species (here: birch,Betula pendula and/orB. pubescens) established. Subsequently, vegetation dynamics leading towards clusters of forest ground-layer species composition took place. (2) In untouched stands, where soil-surface disturbances were restricted to pit-and-mound-system created by uprooted trees, the patchiness of forest vegetation increased and a regeneration of mainly terminal tree species (here: Norway spruce,Picea abies) started. Stand development for the next 100 years was simulated using the model FORSKA-M. The model is individual-based and includes competition for light, soil water, and nutrients. The simulations suggest that floristic structures of cleared and untouched plots, respectively, will remain different for several decades, but within one century, the floristic structure becomes rather similar. Major processes in forest ecosystems which can be used to improve forest management and nature conservation practices have been identified based on the results of the case study.

Transient simulation of the last glacial inception. Part I: glacial inception as a bifurcation in the climate system

Abstract: We study the mechanisms of glacial inception by using the Earth system model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2, which encompasses dynamic modules of the atmosphere, ocean, biosphere and ice sheets. Ice-sheet dynamics are described by the three-dimensional polythermal ice-sheet model SICOPOLIS. We have performed transient experiments starting at the Eemiam interglacial, at 126 ky BP (126,000 years before present). The model runs for 26 kyr with time-dependent orbital and CO2 forcings. The model simulates a rapid expansion of the area covered by inland ice in the Northern Hemisphere, predominantly over Northern America, starting at about 117 kyr BP. During the next 7 kyr, the ice volume grows gradually in the model at a rate which corresponds to a change in sea level of 10 m per millennium. We have shown that the simulated glacial inception represents a bifurcation transition in the climate system from an interglacial to a glacial state caused by the strong snow-albedo feedback. This transition occurs when summer insolation at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere drops below a threshold value, which is only slightly lower than modern summer insolation. By performing long-term equilibrium runs, we find that for the present-day orbital parameters at least two different equilibrium states of the climate system exist—the glacial and the interglacial; however, for the low summer insolation corresponding to 115 kyr BP, we find only one, glacial, equilibrium state, while for the high summer insolation corresponding to 126 kyr BP only an interglacial state exists in the model.

Reconciling top-down and bottom-up modelling on future bioenergy deployment

Abstract: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN) assesses the role of bioenergy as a solution to meeting energy demand in a climate-constrained world. Based on inte- grated assessment models, the SRREN states that deployed bioenergy will contribute the greatest proportion of primary energy among renewable energies and result in greenhouse-gas emission reductions. The report also acknowledges insights from life-cycle assessments, which characterize biofuels as a potential source of significant greenhouse-gas emissions and environ - mental harm. The SRREN made considerable progress in bringing together contrasting views on indirect land-use change from inductive bottom-up studies, such as life-cycle analysis, and deductive top-down assessments. However, a reconciliation of these contrasting views is still missing. Tackling this challenge is a fundamental prerequisite for future bioenergy assessment.

Expert judgements on the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to climate change

Abstract: We present results from detailed interviews with 12 leading climate scien- tists about the possible effects of global climate change on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The elicitation sought to examine the range of opinions within the climatic research community about the physical processes that determine the current strength of the AMOC, its future evolution in a changing climate and the consequences of potential AMOC changes. Experts assign different relative importance to physical processes which determine the present-day strength of the AMOC as well as to forcing factors which determine its future evolution under climate change. Many processes and factors deemed important are assessed as poorly known and insufficiently represented in state-of-the-art climate models. All experts anticipate a weakening of the AMOC under scenarios of increase of greenhouse gas concentrations. Two experts expect a permanent collapse of the AMOC as the most likely response under a 4×CO2 scenario. Assuming a global mean temperature increase in the year 2100 of 4 K, eight experts assess the probability of triggering an AMOC collapse as significantly different from zero, three of them as larger than 40%. Elicited consequences of AMOC reduction include strong changes in temperature, precipitation distribution and sea level in the North Atlantic area.