Institution
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Facility•Potsdam, Germany•
About: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research is a facility organization based out in Potsdam, Germany. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Climate change & Global warming. The organization has 1519 authors who have published 5098 publications receiving 367023 citations.
Papers published on a yearly basis
Papers
More filters
••
Chinese Academy of Sciences1, Tsinghua University2, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research3, Utrecht University4, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency5, University of Potsdam6, Kyoto University7, National Institute for Environmental Studies8, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis9, European Institute10, Polytechnic University of Milan11, Joint Global Change Research Institute12
TL;DR: In this article, the authors conducted a multimodel study and found that the 1.5°C-consistent goal would require China to reduce its carbon emissions and energy consumption by more than 90 and 39%, respectively, compared with the "no policy" case.
Abstract: Given the increasing interest in keeping global warming below 1.5°C, a key question is what this would mean for China's emission pathway, energy restructuring, and decarbonization. By conducting a multimodel study, we find that the 1.5°C-consistent goal would require China to reduce its carbon emissions and energy consumption by more than 90 and 39%, respectively, compared with the "no policy" case. Negative emission technologies play an important role in achieving near-zero emissions, with captured carbon accounting on average for 20% of the total reductions in 2050. Our multimodel comparisons reveal large differences in necessary emission reductions across sectors, whereas what is consistent is that the power sector is required to achieve full decarbonization by 2050. The cross-model averages indicate that China's accumulated policy costs may amount to 2.8 to 5.7% of its gross domestic product by 2050, given the 1.5°C warming limit.
190 citations
••
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors use the multi-scale power system model LIMES-EU+ to explore coordinated long term expansion pathways for renewable energy generation, long distance transmission and storage capacities for the power sector of the Europe and Middle East/North Africa (MENA) regions that lead to a low emission power system.
190 citations
••
TL;DR: In this paper, a set of experiments with a climate system model hemisphere temperature during the last 300 years of intermediate complexity was performed to estimate the eVect of historical land solar irradiance.
Abstract: climate with other forcings, climate responses to the changing atmospheric CO2 concentration and In order to estimate the eVect of historical land solar irradiance are also analysed. When all three cover change (deforestation) on climate, we perform factors are taken into account, dynamics of northern a set of experiments with a climate system model hemisphere temperature during the last 300 years of intermediate complexity - CLIMBER-2. We within the model are generally in agreement with focus on the biophysical eVect of the land cover the observed (reconstructed) temperature trend. We change on climate and do not explicitly account for conclude that the impact of historical land cover the biogeochemical eVect. A dynamic scenario of changes on climate is comparable with the impact deforestation during the last millennium is of the other climate forcings and that land cover formulated based on the rates of land conversion forcing is important for reproducing historical to agriculture. The deforestation scenario causes a climate change. global cooling of 0.35 ∞C with a more notable cooling of the northern hemisphere (0.5 ∞C). The Key words. Modelling, climate change, climate forcing, land cover change, deforestation, solar cooling is most pronounced in the northern middle and high latitudes, especially during the spring irradiance, carbon dioxide, land-atmosphere interaction, climate-biosphere interactions. season. To compare the eVect of deforestation on
190 citations
••
TL;DR: It is shown that market-driven increases in global supplies of unconventional natural gas do not discernibly reduce the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions or climate forcing, and although market penetration of globally abundant gas may substantially change the future energy system, it is not necessarily an effective substitute for climate change mitigation policy.
Abstract: The most important energy development of the past decade has been the wide deployment of hydraulic fracturing technologies that enable the production of previously uneconomic shale gas resources in North America. If these advanced gas production technologies were to be deployed globally, the energy market could see a large influx of economically competitive unconventional gas resources. The climate implications of such abundant natural gas have been hotly debated. Some researchers have observed that abundant natural gas substituting for coal could reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Others have reported that the non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions associated with shale gas production make its lifecycle emissions higher than those of coal. Assessment of the full impact of abundant gas on climate change requires an integrated approach to the global energy-economy-climate systems, but the literature has been limited in either its geographic scope or its coverage of greenhouse gases. Here we show that market-driven increases in global supplies of unconventional natural gas do not discernibly reduce the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions or climate forcing. Our results, based on simulations from five state-of-the-art integrated assessment models of energy-economy-climate systems independently forced by an abundant gas scenario, project large additional natural gas consumption of up to +170 per cent by 2050. The impact on CO2 emissions, however, is found to be much smaller (from -2 per cent to +11 per cent), and a majority of the models reported a small increase in climate forcing (from -0.3 per cent to +7 per cent) associated with the increased use of abundant gas. Our results show that although market penetration of globally abundant gas may substantially change the future energy system, it is not necessarily an effective substitute for climate change mitigation policy.
189 citations
••
TL;DR: The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), and finds a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries.
Abstract: Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries.
189 citations
Authors
Showing all 1589 results
Name | H-index | Papers | Citations |
---|---|---|---|
Carl Folke | 133 | 360 | 125990 |
Adam Drewnowski | 106 | 486 | 41107 |
Jürgen Kurths | 105 | 1038 | 62179 |
Markus Reichstein | 103 | 386 | 53385 |
Stephen Polasky | 99 | 354 | 59148 |
Sandy P. Harrison | 96 | 329 | 34004 |
Owen B. Toon | 94 | 424 | 32237 |
Stephen Sitch | 94 | 262 | 52236 |
Yong Xu | 88 | 1391 | 39268 |
Dieter Neher | 85 | 424 | 26225 |
Johan Rockström | 85 | 236 | 57842 |
Jonathan A. Foley | 85 | 144 | 70710 |
Robert J. Scholes | 84 | 253 | 37019 |
Christoph Müller | 82 | 457 | 27274 |
Robert J. Nicholls | 79 | 515 | 35729 |