Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

About: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research is a facility organization based out in Potsdam, Germany. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Climate change & Global warming. The organization has 1519 authors who have published 5098 publications receiving 367023 citations.

WFDE5: bias adjusted ERA5 reanalysis data for impact studies

Abstract: . The WFDE5 dataset has been generated using the WATCH Forcing Data (WFD) methodology applied to surface meteorological variables from the ERA5 reanalysis. The WFDEI dataset had previously been generated by applying the WFD methodology to ERA-Interim. The WFDE5 is provided at 0.5 ∘ spatial resolution but has higher temporal resolution (hourly) compared to WFDEI (3-hourly). It also has higher spatial variability since it was generated by aggregation of the higher-resolution ERA5 rather than by interpolation of the lower-resolution ERA-Interim data. Evaluation against meteorological observations at 13 globally distributed FLUXNET2015 sites shows that, on average, WFDE5 has lower mean absolute error and higher correlation than WFDEI for all variables. Bias-adjusted monthly precipitation totals of WFDE5 result in more plausible global hydrological water balance components when analysed in an uncalibrated hydrological model (WaterGAP) than with the use of raw ERA5 data for model forcing. The dataset, which can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.20d54e34 ( C3S , 2020 b ) , is distributed by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) through its Climate Data Store (CDS, C3S , 2020 a ) and currently spans from the start of January 1979 to the end of 2018. The dataset has been produced using a number of CDS Toolbox applications, whose source code is available with the data – allowing users to regenerate part of the dataset or apply the same approach to other data. Future updates are expected spanning from 1950 to the most recent year. A sample of the complete dataset, which covers the whole of the year 2016, is accessible without registration to the CDS at https://doi.org/10.21957/935p-cj60 ( Cucchi et al. , 2020 ) .

Dynamic Analysis of Digital Chaotic Maps via State-Mapping Networks

Abstract: Chaotic dynamics is widely used to design pseudo-random number generators and for other applications, such as secure communications and encryption. This paper aims to study the dynamics of the discrete-time chaotic maps in the digital (i.e., finite-precision) domain. Differing from the traditional approaches treating a digital chaotic map as a black box with different explanations according to the test results of the output, the dynamical properties of such chaotic maps are first explored with a fixed-point arithmetic, using the Logistic map and the Tent map as two representative examples, from a new perspective with the corresponding state-mapping networks (SMNs). In an SMN, every possible value in the digital domain is considered as a node and the mapping relationship between any pair of nodes is a directed edge. The scale-free properties of the Logistic map’s SMN are proved. The analytic results are further extended to the scenario of floating-point arithmetic and for other chaotic maps. Understanding the network structure of a chaotic map’s SMN in digital computers can facilitate counteracting the undesirable degeneration of chaotic dynamics in finite-precision domains, also helping to classify and improve the randomness of pseudo-random number sequences generated by iterating the chaotic maps.

Environmental co-benefits and adverse side-effects of alternative power sector decarbonization strategies

Abstract: A rapid and deep decarbonization of power supply worldwide is required to limit global warming to well below 2 °C. Beyond greenhouse gas emissions, the power sector is also responsible for numerous other environmental impacts. Here we combine scenarios from integrated assessment models with a forward-looking life-cycle assessment to explore how alternative technology choices in power sector decarbonization pathways compare in terms of non-climate environmental impacts at the system level. While all decarbonization pathways yield major environmental co-benefits, we find that the scale of co-benefits as well as profiles of adverse side-effects depend strongly on technology choice. Mitigation scenarios focusing on wind and solar power are more effective in reducing human health impacts compared to those with low renewable energy, while inducing a more pronounced shift away from fossil and toward mineral resource depletion. Conversely, non-climate ecosystem damages are highly uncertain but tend to increase, chiefly due to land requirements for bioenergy.

Event-Triggering Containment Control for a Class of Multi-Agent Networks With Fixed and Switching Topologies

Abstract: This paper investigates the event-triggering containment control of multi-agent networks with fixed and switching topologies, where there exist interactions between the leaders. Two cases are studied, respectively: One is that the leaders are opinionated. Then each leader will converge to its initial goal and the followers converge to the convex hull formed by the leaders. The other is that the leaders are not opinionated. Then the leaders will not insist on their initial goals and converge to some compromising states due to the interactions among them, while the followers still converge to the convex hull formed by the leaders. By means of pull-based event-triggering control, the event-triggering containment control problems of multi-agent systems with fixed and switching topologies are investigated, respectively. Finally, simulations are given to illustrate the theoretical results.

Estimating the risk of Amazonian forest dieback

Abstract: Summary • Climate change will very likely affect most forests in Amazonia during the course of the 21st century, but the direction and intensity of the change are uncertain, in part because of differences in rainfall projections. In order to constrain this uncertainty, we estimate the probability for biomass change in Amazonia on the basis of rainfall projections that are weighted by climate model performance for current conditions. • We estimate the risk of forest dieback by using weighted rainfall projections from 24 general circulation models (GCMs) to create probability density functions (PDFs) for future forest biomass changes simulated by a dynamic vegetation model (LPJmL). • Our probabilistic assessment of biomass change suggests a likely shift towards increasing biomass compared with nonweighted results. Biomass estimates range between a gain of 6.2 and a loss of 2.7 kg carbon m )2 for the Amazon region, depending on the strength of CO2 fertilization. • The uncertainty associated with the long-term effect of CO2 is much larger than that associated with precipitation change. This underlines the importance of reducing uncertainties in the direct effects of CO2 on tropical ecosystems.