Showing papers by "World Bank published in 2019"

The human imperative of stabilizing global climate change at 1.5°C

Abstract: Increased concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases have led to a global mean surface temperature 1.0°C higher than during the pre-industrial period. We expand on the recent IPCC Special Report on global warming of 1.5°C and review the additional risks associated with higher levels of warming, each having major implications for multiple geographies, climates, and ecosystems. Limiting warming to 1.5°C rather than 2.0°C would be required to maintain substantial proportions of ecosystems and would have clear benefits for human health and economies. These conclusions are relevant for people everywhere, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, where the escalation of climate-related risks may prevent the achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.

Infrastructure for sustainable development

Abstract: Infrastructure systems form the backbone of every society, providing essential services that include energy, water, waste management, transport and telecommunications. Infrastructure can also create harmful social and environmental impacts, increase vulnerability to natural disasters and leave an unsustainable burden of debt. Investment in infrastructure is at an all-time high globally, thus an ever-increasing number of decisions are being made now that will lock-in patterns of development for future generations. Although for the most part these investments are motivated by the desire to increase economic productivity and employment, we find that infrastructure either directly or indirectly influences the attainment of all of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including 72% of the targets. We categorize the positive and negative effects of infrastructure and the interdependencies between infrastructure sectors. To ensure that the right infrastructure is built, policymakers need to establish long-term visions for sustainable national infrastructure systems, informed by the SDGs, and develop adaptable plans that can demonstrably deliver their vision. Investing in infrastructure systems will lock-in patterns of development for future generations. This study finds that infrastructure either directly or indirectly influences the attainment of all of the Sustainable Development Goals, including 72% of the targets.

A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets.

Abstract: Transport infrastructure is exposed to natural hazards all around the world. Here we present the first global estimates of multi-hazard exposure and risk to road and rail infrastructure. Results reveal that ~27% of all global road and railway assets are exposed to at least one hazard and ~7.5% of all assets are exposed to a 1/100 year flood event. Global Expected Annual Damages (EAD) due to direct damage to road and railway assets range from 3.1 to 22 billion US dollars, of which ~73% is caused by surface and river flooding. Global EAD are small relative to global GDP (~0.02%). However, in some countries EAD reach 0.5 to 1% of GDP annually, which is the same order of magnitude as national transport infrastructure budgets. A cost-benefit analysis suggests that increasing flood protection would have positive returns on ~60% of roads exposed to a 1/100 year flood event.

The spatial allocation of population: a review of large-scale gridded population data products and their fitness for use

Abstract: . Population data represent an essential component in studies focusing on human–nature interrelationships, disaster risk assessment and environmental health. Several recent efforts have produced global- and continental-extent gridded population data which are becoming increasingly popular among various research communities. However, these data products, which are of very different characteristics and based on different modeling assumptions, have never been systematically reviewed and compared, which may impede their appropriate use. This article fills this gap and presents, compares and discusses a set of large-scale (global and continental) gridded datasets representing population counts or densities. It focuses on data properties, methodological approaches and relative quality aspects that are important to fully understand the characteristics of the data with regard to the intended uses. Written by the data producers and members of the user community, through the lens of the “fitness for use” concept, the aim of this paper is to provide potential data users with the knowledge base needed to make informed decisions about the appropriateness of the data products available in relation to the target application and for critical analysis.

The role of irrigation in changing wheat yields and heat sensitivity in India

Abstract: Irrigation has been pivotal in wheat's rise as a major crop in India and is likely to be increasingly important as an adaptation response to climate change. Here we use historical data across 40 years to quantify the contribution of irrigation to wheat yield increases and the extent to which irrigation reduces sensitivity to heat. We estimate that national yields in the 2000s are 13% higher than they would have been without irrigation trends since 1970. Moreover, irrigated wheat exhibits roughly one-quarter of the heat sensitivity estimated for fully rainfed conditions. However, yield gains from irrigation expansion have slowed in recent years and negative impacts of warming have continued to accrue despite lower heat sensitivity from the widespread expansion of irrigation. We conclude that as constraints on expanding irrigation become more binding, furthering yield gains in the face of additional warming is likely to present an increasingly difficult challenge.

Challenges to capture the big five personality traits in non-WEIRD populations

Abstract: Can personality traits be measured and interpreted reliably across the world? While the use of Big Five personality measures is increasingly common across social sciences, their validity outside of western, educated, industrialized, rich, and democratic (WEIRD) populations is unclear. Adopting a comprehensive psychometric approach to analyze 29 face-to-face surveys from 94,751 respondents in 23 low- and middle-income countries, we show that commonly used personality questions generally fail to measure the intended personality traits and show low validity. These findings contrast with the much higher validity of these measures attained in internet surveys of 198,356 self-selected respondents from the same countries. We discuss how systematic response patterns, enumerator interactions, and low education levels can collectively distort personality measures when assessed in large-scale surveys. Our results highlight the risk of misinterpreting Big Five survey data and provide a warning against naive interpretations of personality traits without evidence of their validity.

Mapping global human dependence on marine ecosystems

Abstract: Many human populations are dependent on marine ecosystems for a range of benefits, but we understand little about where and to what degree people rely on these ecosystem services. We created a new conceptual model to map the degree of human dependence on marine ecosystems based on the magnitude of the benefit, susceptibility of people to a loss of that benefit, and the availability of alternatives. We focused on mapping nutritional, economic, and coastal protection dependence, but our model is repeatable, scalable, applicable to other ecosystems, and designed to incorporate additional services and data. Here we show that dependence was highest for Pacific and Indian Ocean island nations and several West African countries. More than 775 million people live in areas with relatively high dependence scores. By identifying where and how people are dependent on marine ecosystems, our framework can be used to design more effective large‐scale management and policy interventions.

Resilience of the Eastern African electricity sector to climate driven changes in hydropower generation

Abstract: Notwithstanding current heavy dependence on gas-fired electricity generation in the Eastern African Power Pool (EAPP), hydropower is expected to play an essential role in improving electricity access in the region. Expansion planning of electricity infrastructure is critical to support investment and maintaining balanced consumer electricity prices. Variations in water availability due to a changing climate could leave hydro infrastructure stranded or result in underutilization of available resources. In this study, we develop a framework consisting of long-term models for electricity supply and water systems management, to assess the vulnerability of potential expansion plans to the effects of climate change. We find that the most resilient EAPP rollout strategy corresponds to a plan optimised for a slightly wetter climate compared to historical trends. This study demonstrates that failing to climate-proof infrastructure investments can result in significant electricity price fluctuations in selected countries (Uganda & Tanzania) while others, such as Egypt, are less vulnerable.

Employee Wellbeing, Productivity and Firm Performance

Abstract: Does higher employee wellbeing lead to higher productivity, and, ultimately, to tangible benefits to the bottom line of businesses? We survey the evidence and study this question in a meta-analysis of 339 independent research studies, including the wellbeing of 1,882,131 employees and the performance of 82,248 business units, originating from 230 independent organisations across 49 industries in the Gallup client database. We find a significant, strong positive correlation between employees' satisfaction with their company and employee productivity and customer loyalty, and a strong negative correlation with staff turnover. Ultimately, higher wellbeing at work is positively correlated with more business-unit level profitability.

Impact of past and on-going changes on climate and weather on vector-borne diseases transmission: a look at the evidence.

Abstract: The climate variables that directly influence vector-borne diseases’ ecosystems are mainly temperature and rainfall. This is not only because the vectors bionomics are strongly dependent upon these variables, but also because most of the elements of the systems are impacted, such as the host behavior and development and the pathogen amplification. The impact of the climate changes on the transmission patterns of these diseases is not easily understood, since many confounding factors are acting together. Consequently, knowledge of these impacts is often based on hypothesis derived from mathematical models. Nevertheless, some direct evidences can be found for several vector-borne diseases. Evidences of the impact of climate change are available for malaria, arbovirus diseases such as dengue, and many other parasitic and viral diseases such as Rift Valley Fever, Japanese encephalitis, human African trypanosomiasis and leishmaniasis. The effect of temperature and rainfall change as well as extreme events, were found to be the main cause for outbreaks and are alarming the global community. Among the main driving factors, climate strongly influences the geographical distribution of insect vectors, which is rapidly changing due to climate change. Further, in both models and direct evidences, climate change is seen to be affecting vector-borne diseases more strikingly in fringe of different climatic areas often in the border of transmission zones, which were once free of these diseases with human populations less immune and more receptive. The impact of climate change is also more devastating because of the unpreparedness of Public Health systems to provide adequate response to the events, even when climatic warning is available. Although evidences are strong at the regional and local levels, the studies on impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases and health are producing contradictory results at the global level. In this paper we discuss the current state of the results and draw on evidences from malaria, dengue and other vector-borne diseases to illustrate the state of current thinking and outline the need for further research to inform our predictions and response.

The Role and Need for Space-Based Forest Biomass-Related Measurements in Environmental Management and Policy

Abstract: The achievement of international goals and national commitments related to forest conservation and management, climate change, and sustainable development requires credible, accurate, and reliable monitoring of stocks and changes in forest biomass and carbon. Most prominently, the Paris Agreement on Climate Change and the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals in particular require data on biomass to monitor progress. Unprecedented opportunities to provide forest biomass data are created by a series of upcoming space-based missions, many of which provide open data targeted at large areas and better spatial resolution biomass monitoring than has previously been achieved. We assess various policy needs for biomass data and recommend a long-term collaborative effort among forest biomass data producers and users to meet these needs. A gap remains, however, between what can be achieved in the research domain and what is required to support policy making and meet reporting requirements. There is no single biomass dataset that serves all users in terms of definition and type of biomass measurement, geographic area, and uncertainty requirements, and whether there is need for the most recent up-to-date biomass estimate or a long-term biomass trend. The research and user communities should embrace the potential strength of the multitude of upcoming missions in combination to provide for these varying needs and to ensure continuity for long-term data provision which one-off research missions cannot provide. International coordination bodies such as Global Forest Observations Initiative (GFOI), Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS), and Global Observation of Forest Cover and Land Dynamics (GOFC‐GOLD) will be integral in addressing these issues in a way that fulfils these needs in a timely fashion. Further coordination work should particularly look into how space-based data can be better linked with field reference data sources such as forest plot networks, and there is also a need to ensure that reference data cover a range of forest types, management regimes, and disturbance regimes worldwide.

Most of Africa's Nutritionally Deprived Women and Children Are Not Found in Poor Households

Abstract: Policymakers often assume that targeting observably poor households suffices in reaching nutritionally deprived individuals. We question that assumption. Our comprehensive assessment for sub-Sahara...

The effect of heavy metal contamination on humans and animals in the vicinity of a zinc smelting facility

Abstract: A diagnosis of heavy metal poisoning in sheep living on pastures in the vicinity of a smelting facility in the Wumeng mountain area of China was based on laboratory tests and clinical symptoms. Furthermore, heavy metal contamination in the food chain was found to have a deleterious effect on the health of local residents. The levels of copper(Cu), zinc(Zn), cadmium (Cd), and lead (Pb) in irrigation water, soil, forages, and animal tissues were measured in samples taken from the vicinity of a smelting facility and control samples. Heavy metal contents in food (corn, rice, and wheat), as well as in human tissues (blood and hair) obtained from local residents were also determined. Hematological values were also determined in human and animal samples. The content of Cu, Zn, Cd, and Pb in irrigation water, soils, and forages were markedly higher in affected areas than in samples from healthy pastures. Concentrations of Cd and Pb were 177.82 and 16.61 times greater in forages than controls, respectively, and 68.71 and 15.66 times greater in soils than controls, respectively. The heavy metal content in food (corn, rice, and wheat) from affected areas was markedly higher than in the control samples. Cd and Pb content in the tissues of affected sheep were markedly higher than in control animals (P < 0.01), while concentrations of Cd and Pb in blood and hair samples from local residents were markedly higher than in control samples (P < 0.01). The occurrence of anemia in affected humans and animals followed a hypochromic and microcytic pattern. The intake of Cd and Pb was estimated according to herbage ingestion rates. It was found that the levels of Cd and Pb which accumulated in sheep through the ingestion of vegetation growing in the sites closest to the smelter were approximately 3.36 and 38.47 mg/kg body wt./day, respectively. Such levels surpassed the fatal dosages for sheep of 1.13 mg Cd/kg body wt/day and 4.42 mg Pb/kg body wt./day. The serum total antioxidant capacity in affected humans and animals was significantly lower than in the controls (P < 0.01). Serum protein parameters in affected humans and animals were significantly reduced (P < 0.01); therefore, it was concluded that heavy metal contamination caused harm to sheep, and also posed a significant risk to humans living in the vicinity of the zinc smelting facility.

A systematic review of Lean in healthcare: a global prospective

Abstract: Fostered by a rapid spread beyond the manufacturing sector, Lean philosophy for continuous improvement has been widely used in service organizations, primarily in the healthcare sector. However, there is a limited research on the motivating factors, challenges and benefits of implementing Lean in healthcare. Taking this as a valuable opportunity, the purpose of this paper is to present the key motivating factors, limitations or challenges of Lean deployment, benefits of Lean in healthcare and key gaps in the literature as an agenda for future research.,The authors used the secondary data from the literature (peer-reviewed journal articles) published between 2000 and 2016 to understand the state of the art. The systematic review identified 101 articles across 88 journals recognized by the Association of Business Schools ranking guide 2015.,The systematic review helped the authors to identify the evolution, current trends, research gaps and an agenda for future research for Lean in healthcare. A bouquet of motivating factors, challenges/limitations and benefits of Lean in healthcare are presented.,The implications of this work include directions for managers and healthcare professionals in healthcare organizations to embark on a focused Lean journey aligned with the strategic objectives. This work could serve as a valuable resource to both practitioners and researchers for learning, investigating and rightly adapting the Lean in the healthcare sector.,This study is perhaps one of the comprehensive systematic literature reviews covering an important agenda of Lean in Healthcare. All the text, figures and tables featured here are original work carried by five authors in collaboration (from three countries, namely, India, the USA and the UK).

A global agenda for collective action on soil carbon

Abstract: Policymakers and investors have perceived securing soil organic carbon as too difficult, with uncertain returns. But new technical, policy and financial opportunities offer hope for rapid progress.

The spatial variability of actual evapotranspiration across the Amazon River Basin based on remote sensing products validated with flux towers

Abstract: Actual evapotranspiration (ET) is a major component of the water balance. While several international flux measurement programs have been executed in the tropical rain forest of the Amazon, those measurements represent the evaporative process at a few selected sites only. The aim of this study is to obtain the spatial distribution of ET, using remote sensing techniques, across the entire Amazon River Basin. Results from six global ET products based on remote sensing techniques (GLEAM, SEBS, ALEXI, CMRSET, MOD16, and SSEBop) were merged to obtain an ensemble prediction of the ET rates for the complex and in-accessible environment of the Amazon at a spatial resolution of 250 m. The study shows that the basin-wide average ET is 1316 mm/year with a standard deviation of 192 mm/year. This new ET-Amazon product was validated against seven different historic flux tower measurements. The energy balance closure of the in situ measurements varied between 86 and 116%. Only months with more than 70% completeness of in situ measurements were considered for validation. Different procedures for closure correction were included in the analyses. The correlation between measured and remotely sensed ET is good (R2 > 0.97 for consecutive periods of 2 to 12 months), and the bias correction is negligible for the energy balance residual method, which seemed most favorable. Monthly ET values have more uncertainty. The monthly RMSE values vary between 7.4 and 27.8 mm/month (the average RMSE is 22.2 mm/month), and the coefficient of determination (R2) varies between 0.48 and 0.87 (the average R2 is 0.53). The ET from the water balance is 1380 mm/year, being − 64 mm/year difference and 4.6% less than ET derived from the water balance. The evaporation from the Amazon basin inside Brazil is 5063 km3/year, followed by Peru with 1165 km3/year. ET-Amazon shows more spatial details and accuracy than alternative global ET products such as LandFlux-EVAL, Model Tree Ensemble (MTE), and WACMOS-ET. This justifies the development of new regional ET products.