Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0 - An extended set of large-scale diagnostics for quasi-operational and comprehensive evaluation of Earth system models in CMIP
Veronika Eyring,Veronika Eyring,Lisa Bock,Axel Lauer,Mattia Righi,Manuel Schlund,Bouwe Andela,Enrico Arnone,Omar Bellprat,Björn Brötz,Louis-Philippe Caron,Nuno Carvalhais,Nuno Carvalhais,Irene Cionni,Nicola Cortesi,Bas Crezee,Edouard Davin,Paolo Davini,Kevin Debeire,Lee de Mora,Clara Deser,David Docquier,Paul Earnshaw,Carsten Ehbrecht,Bettina K. Gier,Bettina K. Gier,Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego,Paul J. Goodman,Stefan Hagemann,Steven C. Hardiman,Birgit Hassler,Alasdair Hunter,Christopher Kadow,Stephan Kindermann,Sujan Koirala,Nikolay Koldunov,Quentin Lejeune,Valerio Lembo,Tomas Lovato,Valerio Lucarini,Valerio Lucarini,François Massonnet,Benjamin Müller,Amarjiit Pandde,Núria Pérez-Zanón,Adam S. Phillips,Valeriu Predoi,Joellen L. Russell,Alistair Sellar,Federico Serva,Tobias Stacke,Ranjini Swaminathan,Verónica Torralba,Javier Vegas-Regidor,Jost von Hardenberg,Katja Weigel,Katja Weigel,Klaus Zimmermann +57 more
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TLDR
Large-scale diagnostics of the second major release of the ESMValTool tool, a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool designed to improve comprehensive and routine evaluation of Earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), are described.Abstract:
This research has been supported by Horizon 2020 (grant nos. 641816, 727862, 641727, and 824084), the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) (Metrics and Access to Global Indices for Climate Projections, MAGIC), the Helmholtz Association (Advanced Earth System Model Evaluation for CMIP, EVal4CMIP), the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (grant no. 274762653), the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) (grant no. CMIP6-DICAD), and the European Space Agency (ESA Climate Change Initiative Climate Model User Group, ESA CCI CMUG).read more
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Global patterns of land-atmosphere fluxes of carbon dioxide, latent heat, and sensible heat derived from eddy covariance, satellite, and meteorological observations
Abstract: We upscaled FLUXNET observations of carbon dioxide, water, and energy fluxes to the global scale using the machine learning technique, model tree ensembles (MTE). We trained MTE to predict site-level gross primary productivity (GPP), terrestrial ecosystem respiration (TER), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), latent energy (LE), and sensible heat (H) based on remote sensing indices, climate and meteorological data, and information on land use. We applied the trained MTEs to generate global flux fields at a 0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees spatial resolution and a monthly temporal resolution from 1982 to 2008. Cross-validation analyses revealed good performance of MTE in predicting among-site flux variability with modeling efficiencies (MEf) between 0.64 and 0.84, except for NEE (MEf = 0.32). Performance was also good for predicting seasonal patterns (MEf between 0.84 and 0.89, except for NEE (0.64)). By comparison, predictions of monthly anomalies were not as strong (MEf between 0.29 and 0.52). Improved accounting of disturbance and lagged environmental effects, along with improved characterization of errors in the training data set, would contribute most to further reducing uncertainties. Our global estimates of LE (158 +/- 7 J x 10(18) yr(-1)), H (164 +/- 15 J x 10(18) yr(-1)), and GPP (119 +/- 6 Pg C yr(-1)) were similar to independent estimates. Our global TER estimate (96 +/- 6 Pg C yr(-1)) was likely underestimated by 5-10%. Hot spot regions of interannual variability in carbon fluxes occurred in semiarid to semihumid regions and were controlled by moisture supply. Overall, GPP was more important to interannual variability in NEE than TER. Our empirically derived fluxes may be used for calibration and evaluation of land surface process models and for exploratory and diagnostic assessments of the biosphere.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2)
Gokhan Danabasoglu,Jean-Francois Lamarque,Julio T. Bacmeister,David A. Bailey,Alice K. DuVivier,Jim Edwards,Louisa K. Emmons,John T. Fasullo,Rolando R. Garcia,Andrew Gettelman,Cecile Hannay,Marika M. Holland,William G. Large,Peter H. Lauritzen,David M. Lawrence,Jan T. M. Lenaerts,Keith Lindsay,William H. Lipscomb,Michael J. Mills,Richard Neale,Keith W. Oleson,Bette L. Otto-Bliesner,Adam S. Phillips,William J. Sacks,Simone Tilmes,L. van Kampenhout,Mariana Vertenstein,Alice Bertini,John M. Dennis,Clara Deser,Christopher Fischer,B. Fox-Kemper,Jennifer E. Kay,Douglas E. Kinnison,Paul J. Kushner,Vincent E. Larson,Matthew C. Long,Sheri Mickelson,J. K. Moore,Eric Nienhouse,Lorenzo M. Polvani,Philip J. Rasch,Warren G. Strand +42 more
TL;DR: The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) as discussed by the authors is the most recent version of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMEI) coupled model.
Carbon-concentration and carbon-climate feedbacks in CMIP5 Earth system models
Vivek K. Arora,George J. Boer,Pierre Friedlingstein,Michael Eby,Chris D. Jones,James R. Christian,Gordon B. Bonan,Laurent Bopp,Victor Brovkin,Patricia Cadule,Tomohiro Hajima,Tatiana Ilyina,Keith Lindsay,Jerry Tjiputra,Tongwen Wu +14 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the magnitude and evolution of parameters that characterize feedbacks in the coupled carbon-climate system are compared across nine Earth system models (ESMs), based on results from biogeochemically, radiatively, and fully coupled simulations in which CO2 increases at a rate of 1% yr−1.
Journal ArticleDOI
Context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the CMIP6 Earth system models.
Gerald A. Meehl,Catherine A. Senior,Veronika Eyring,Veronika Eyring,Gregory M. Flato,Jean-Francois Lamarque,Ronald J. Stouffer,Karl E. Taylor,Manuel Schlund +8 more
TL;DR: Cloud feedbacks and cloud-aerosol interactions are the most likely contributors to the high values and increased range of ECS in CMIP6.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6
Claudia Tebaldi,Kevin Debeire,Veronika Eyring,Veronika Eyring,Erich M. Fischer,John C. Fyfe,Pierre Friedlingstein,Pierre Friedlingstein,Reto Knutti,Jason Lowe,Jason Lowe,Brian C. O'Neill,Brian C. O'Neill,Benjamin Sanderson,Detlef P. van Vuuren,Keywan Riahi,Malte Meinshausen,Zebedee Nicholls,Katarzyna B. Tokarska,George C. Hurtt,Elmar Kriegler,Jean-Francois Lamarque,Gerald A. Meehl,Richard H. Moss,Susanne E. Bauer,Olivier Boucher,Victor Brovkin,Victor Brovkin,Young-Hwa Byun,Martin Dix,Silvio Gualdi,Huan Guo,Jasmin G. John,Slava Kharin,Young Ho Kim,Young Ho Kim,Tsuyoshi Koshiro,Libin Ma,Dirk Jan Leo Oliviè,Swapna Panickal,Fangli Qiao,Xinyao Rong,Nan Rosenbloom,Martin Schupfner,Roland Séférian,Alistair Sellar,Tido Semmler,Xiaoying Shi,Zhenya Song,Christian Steger,Ronald J. Stouffer,Neil C. Swart,Kaoru Tachiiri,Qi Tang,Hiroaki Tatebe,Aurore Voldoire,Evgeny Volodin,Klaus Wyser,Xiaoge Xin,Shuting Yang,Yongqiang Yu,Tilo Ziehn +61 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models for concentration driven simulations, focusing mainly on the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation.
References
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Atlantic hurricanes and natural variability in 2005
TL;DR: The 2005 North Atlantic hurricane season (1 June to 30 November) was the most active on record by several measures, surpassing the very active season of 2004 and causing an unprecedented level of damage.
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Climate Change from 1850 to 2005 Simulated in CESM1(WACCM)
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The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 1: Description and basic evaluation of the physical climate
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TL;DR: The core version of the Norwegian Climate Center's Earth System Model, named NorESM1-M, is presented in this paper, where a first-order assessment of the model stability, the mean model state and the internal variability based on the model experiments made available to CMIP5 are presented.
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Global Data Sets of Vegetation Leaf Area Index (LAI)3g and Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR)3g Derived from Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI3g) for the Period 1981 to 2011
Zaichun Zhu,Jian Bi,Yaozhong Pan,Sanmay Ganguly,Alessandro Anav,Liang Xu,Arindam Samanta,Shilong Piao,Ramakrishna R. Nemani,Ranga B. Myneni +9 more
TL;DR: Long-term global data sets of vegetation Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation absorbed by vegetation (FPAR) are critical to understanding vegetation photosynthesis and its role in climate change.
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Carbon emission limits required to satisfy future representative concentration pathways of greenhouse gases
Vivek K. Arora,John Scinocca,George J. Boer,James R. Christian,James R. Christian,Kenneth L. Denman,Gregory M. Flato,Viatcheslav Kharin,Warren G. Lee,William J. Merryfield +9 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the second-generation Canadian earth system model (CanESM2) was used to assess the response of the second generation earth system models to historical (1850-2005) and future (2006-2100) natural and anthropogenic forcing.
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