UKESM1: Description and Evaluation of the U.K. Earth System Model
Alistair Sellar,Colin Jones,Jane Mulcahy,Yongming Tang,Andrew Yool,Andy Wiltshire,Fiona M. O'Connor,Marc Stringer,Richard Hill,Julien Palmieri,S. Woodward,Lee de Mora,Till Kuhlbrodt,S. T. Rumbold,Douglas I. Kelley,Rich Ellis,Colin E. Johnson,Jeremy Walton,Nathan Luke Abraham,Martin B. Andrews,Timothy Andrews,Alexander T. Archibald,Ségolène Berthou,Eleanor J. Burke,Ed Blockley,Kenneth S. Carslaw,Mohit Dalvi,John M. Edwards,Gerd A. Folberth,Nicola Gedney,Paul T. Griffiths,Anna B. Harper,Maggie A. Hendry,Alan J. Hewitt,Ben Johnson,Andrew Jones,Chris D. Jones,James Keeble,Spencer Liddicoat,Olaf Morgenstern,Robert J. Parker,Valeriu Predoi,Eddy Robertson,Antony Siahaan,Robin S. Smith,Ranjini Swaminathan,Ranjini Swaminathan,Matthew T. Woodhouse,Guang Zeng,M. Zerroukat +49 more
TLDR
The United Kingdom Earth System Model UKESM1 as discussed by the authors was developed and tuned to achieve acceptable performance in key physical and Earth system quantities, and discuss the challenges involved in mitigating biases in a model with complex connections between its components.Abstract:
We document the development of the first version of the United Kingdom Earth System Model UKESM1. The model represents a major advance on its predecessor HadGEM2‐ES, with enhancements to all component models and new feedback mechanisms. These include: a new core physical model with a well‐resolved stratosphere; terrestrial biogeochemistry with coupled carbon and nitrogen cycles and enhanced land management; tropospheric‐stratospheric chemistry allowing the holistic simulation of radiative forcing from ozone, methane and nitrous oxide; two‐moment, five‐species, modal aerosol; and ocean biogeochemistry with two‐way coupling to the carbon cycle and atmospheric aerosols. The complexity of coupling between the ocean, land and atmosphere physical climate and biogeochemical cycles in UKESM1 is unprecedented for an Earth system model. We describe in detail the process by which the coupled model was developed and tuned to achieve acceptable performance in key physical and Earth system quantities, and discuss the challenges involved in mitigating biases in a model with complex connections between its components. Overall the model performs well, with a stable pre‐industrial state, and good agreement with observations in the latter period of its historical simulations. However, global mean surface temperature exhibits stronger‐than‐observed cooling from 1950 to 1970, followed by rapid warming from 1980 to 2014. Metrics from idealised simulations show a high climate sensitivity relative to previous generations of models: equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is 5.4 K, transient climate response (TCR) ranges from 2.68 K to 2.85 K, and transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) is 2.49 K/TtC to 2.66 K/TtC.read more
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Journal ArticleDOI
Global Carbon Budget 2020
Pierre Friedlingstein,Pierre Friedlingstein,Michael O'Sullivan,Matthew W. Jones,Robbie M. Andrew,Judith Hauck,Are Olsen,Glen P. Peters,Wouter Peters,Wouter Peters,Julia Pongratz,Julia Pongratz,Stephen Sitch,Corinne Le Quéré,Josep G. Canadell,Philippe Ciais,Robert B. Jackson,Simone R. Alin,Luiz E. O. C. Aragão,Luiz E. O. C. Aragão,Almut Arneth,Vivek K. Arora,Nicholas R. Bates,Nicholas R. Bates,Meike Becker,Alice Benoit-Cattin,Henry C. Bittig,Laurent Bopp,Selma Bultan,Naveen Chandra,Naveen Chandra,Frédéric Chevallier,Louise Chini,Wiley Evans,Liesbeth Florentie,Piers M. Forster,Thomas Gasser,Marion Gehlen,Dennis Gilfillan,Thanos Gkritzalis,Luke Gregor,Nicolas Gruber,Ian Harris,Kerstin Hartung,Kerstin Hartung,Vanessa Haverd,Richard A. Houghton,Tatiana Ilyina,Atul K. Jain,Emilie Joetzjer,Koji Kadono,Etsushi Kato,Vassilis Kitidis,Jan Ivar Korsbakken,Peter Landschützer,Nathalie Lefèvre,Andrew Lenton,Sebastian Lienert,Zhu Liu,Danica Lombardozzi,Gregg Marland,Nicolas Metzl,David R. Munro,David R. Munro,Julia E. M. S. Nabel,S. Nakaoka,Yosuke Niwa,Kevin D. O'Brien,Kevin D. O'Brien,Tsuneo Ono,Paul I. Palmer,Denis Pierrot,Benjamin Poulter,Laure Resplandy,Eddy Robertson,Christian Rödenbeck,Jörg Schwinger,Roland Séférian,Ingunn Skjelvan,Adam J. P. Smith,Adrienne J. Sutton,Toste Tanhua,Pieter P. Tans,Hanqin Tian,Bronte Tilbrook,Bronte Tilbrook,Guido R. van der Werf,N. Vuichard,Anthony P. Walker,Rik Wanninkhof,Andrew J. Watson,David R. Willis,Andy Wiltshire,Wenping Yuan,Xu Yue,Sönke Zaehle +95 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties, including emissions from land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models.
Journal ArticleDOI
Global Carbon Budget 2019
Pierre Friedlingstein,Pierre Friedlingstein,Matthew W. Jones,Michael O'Sullivan,Robbie M. Andrew,Judith Hauck,Glen P. Peters,Wouter Peters,Wouter Peters,Julia Pongratz,Julia Pongratz,Stephen Sitch,Corinne Le Quéré,Dorothee C. E. Bakker,Josep G. Canadell,Philippe Ciais,Robert B. Jackson,Peter Anthoni,Leticia Barbero,Leticia Barbero,Ana Bastos,Vladislav Bastrikov,Meike Becker,Meike Becker,Laurent Bopp,Erik T. Buitenhuis,Naveen Chandra,Frédéric Chevallier,Louise Chini,Kim I. Currie,Richard A. Feely,Marion Gehlen,Dennis Gilfillan,Thanos Gkritzalis,Daniel S. Goll,Nicolas Gruber,Sören B. Gutekunst,Ian Harris,Vanessa Haverd,Richard A. Houghton,George C. Hurtt,Tatiana Ilyina,Atul K. Jain,Emilie Joetzjer,Jed O. Kaplan,Etsushi Kato,Kees Klein Goldewijk,Kees Klein Goldewijk,Jan Ivar Korsbakken,Peter Landschützer,Siv K. Lauvset,Nathalie Lefèvre,Andrew Lenton,Andrew Lenton,Sebastian Lienert,Danica Lombardozzi,Gregg Marland,Patrick C. McGuire,Joe R. Melton,Nicolas Metzl,David R. Munro,Julia E. M. S. Nabel,Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka,Craig Neill,Abdirahman M Omar,Abdirahman M Omar,Tsuneo Ono,Anna Peregon,Anna Peregon,Denis Pierrot,Denis Pierrot,Benjamin Poulter,Gregor Rehder,Laure Resplandy,Eddy Robertson,Christian Rödenbeck,Roland Séférian,Jörg Schwinger,Jörg Schwinger,Naomi E. Smith,Naomi E. Smith,Pieter P. Tans,Hanqin Tian,Bronte Tilbrook,Bronte Tilbrook,Francesco N. Tubiello,Guido R. van der Werf,Andy Wiltshire,Sönke Zaehle +88 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties, including emissions from land use and land use change, and show that the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle.
Global patterns of land-atmosphere fluxes of carbon dioxide, latent heat, and sensible heat derived from eddy covariance, satellite, and meteorological observations
Abstract: We upscaled FLUXNET observations of carbon dioxide, water, and energy fluxes to the global scale using the machine learning technique, model tree ensembles (MTE). We trained MTE to predict site-level gross primary productivity (GPP), terrestrial ecosystem respiration (TER), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), latent energy (LE), and sensible heat (H) based on remote sensing indices, climate and meteorological data, and information on land use. We applied the trained MTEs to generate global flux fields at a 0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees spatial resolution and a monthly temporal resolution from 1982 to 2008. Cross-validation analyses revealed good performance of MTE in predicting among-site flux variability with modeling efficiencies (MEf) between 0.64 and 0.84, except for NEE (MEf = 0.32). Performance was also good for predicting seasonal patterns (MEf between 0.84 and 0.89, except for NEE (0.64)). By comparison, predictions of monthly anomalies were not as strong (MEf between 0.29 and 0.52). Improved accounting of disturbance and lagged environmental effects, along with improved characterization of errors in the training data set, would contribute most to further reducing uncertainties. Our global estimates of LE (158 +/- 7 J x 10(18) yr(-1)), H (164 +/- 15 J x 10(18) yr(-1)), and GPP (119 +/- 6 Pg C yr(-1)) were similar to independent estimates. Our global TER estimate (96 +/- 6 Pg C yr(-1)) was likely underestimated by 5-10%. Hot spot regions of interannual variability in carbon fluxes occurred in semiarid to semihumid regions and were controlled by moisture supply. Overall, GPP was more important to interannual variability in NEE than TER. Our empirically derived fluxes may be used for calibration and evaluation of land surface process models and for exploratory and diagnostic assessments of the biosphere.
Journal ArticleDOI
Global Carbon Budget 2021
Pierre Friedlingstein,Sönke Zaehle,Corinne Le Quéré,Christian Rödenbeck,Bronte Tilbrook,Denis Pierrot,Siv K. Lauvset,Louise Chini,Jan Ivar Korsbakken,Gregor Rehder,Nicolas Bellouin,Toste Tanhua,Benjamin Poulter,Peter Landschützer,Francesco N. Tubiello,Judith Hauck,Colm Sweeney,Dorothee C. E. Bakker,Yosuke Iida,Luke Gregor,George C. Hurtt,Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka,Peter Anthoni,Frédéric Chevallier,Clemens Schwingshackl,Wiley Evans,Meike Becker,Thomas Gasser,Xu Yue,Steve B Jones,Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx,Xinyu Dou,Fraser Holding,Guanghong Zhou,Jianling Chen,Nagamani K,e6gehqc681,Hiroshi Niinami,Samuel Bourne,kensetyrdhhtml2mdcom,Agbenoko Donyo Koffi,C. W. Winil,Oliver Kushemererwa,Nathalie Fenouil,Seok-Woo Jang,Karina Querne de Carvalho,carmaizvio,Silvia Ravelli,Olga D. Vorob'eva,James Kelvin,Fatih Günay,Amanda M. White,Vilemina Čenić,Eszter Dudás,CHAO LUAN,Benjamin Pfluger,Benjamin Pfluger,Stuart L. Weinstein,Abdullah ÖZÇELİK,Valery Vasil'evich Kozlov,Dong-Pyo Han,Roshan Vasant Shinde, Dr Sandeep Haribhau Wankhade, Dr Nitin Gajanan Shekapure, Mr Sachin Shrikant …,Mylene Charon,None Rahmi +63 more
TL;DR: Friedlingstein et al. as mentioned in this paper presented and synthesized datasets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties, including fossil CO2 emissions, land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models.
Journal ArticleDOI
Context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the CMIP6 Earth system models.
Gerald A. Meehl,Catherine A. Senior,Veronika Eyring,Veronika Eyring,Gregory M. Flato,Jean-Francois Lamarque,Ronald J. Stouffer,Karl E. Taylor,Manuel Schlund +8 more
TL;DR: Cloud feedbacks and cloud-aerosol interactions are the most likely contributors to the high values and increased range of ECS in CMIP6.
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