Minimal Climate Impacts From Short‐Lived Climate Forcers Following Emission Reductions Related to the COVID‐19 Pandemic
James Weber,Youngsub Matthew Shin,John Staunton Sykes,Scott Archer-Nicholls,N. Luke Abraham,Alexander T. Archibald +5 more
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Assessment of the impacts on atmospheric composition and radiative forcing of short‐lived pollutants following a worldwide decrease in anthropogenic activity and emissions comparable to what has occurred in response to the COVID‐19 pandemic using the UKCA model finds changes are unlikely to have lasting impacts on climate assuming emissions return to pre‐intervention levels.Abstract:
We present an assessment of the impacts on atmospheric composition and radiative forcing of short‐lived pollutants following a worldwide decrease in anthropogenic activity and emissions comparable to what has occurred in response to the COVID‐19 pandemic, using the global composition‐climate model United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols Model (UKCA) Emission changes reduce tropospheric hydroxyl radical and ozone burdens, increasing methane lifetime Reduced SO2 emissions and oxidizing capacity lead to a decrease in sulfate aerosol and increase in aerosol size, with accompanying reductions to cloud droplet concentration However, large reductions in black carbon emissions increase aerosol albedo Overall, the changes in ozone and aerosol direct effects (neglecting aerosol‐cloud interactions which were statistically insignificant but whose response warrants future investigation) yield a radiative forcing of −33 to −78 mWm−2 Upon cessation of emission reductions, the short‐lived climate forcers rapidly return to pre‐COVID levels;meaning, these changes are unlikely to have lasting impacts on climate assuming emissions return to pre‐intervention levels Plain Language Summary: As a result of the global COVID‐19 pandemic, unprecedented lockdown measures have been imposed worldwide to reduce the spread of the disease, causing huge reductions in economic activity and corresponding reductions in transport, industrial, and aircraft emissions As well as lowering emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, this has resulted in a dramatic reduction in the emissions of pollutants that also affect climate In this study, we have used state‐of‐the‐art computer simulations to quantify how changes in these components are likely to impact the chemical make‐up of the atmosphere and the likely short‐term impacts on climate Despite large decreases in nitrogen dioxide and atmospheric particles, we find these changes result in a very small impact on the energy balance of the atmosphere but one that would act to cool the planet, without considering the knock‐on impacts on clouds (which we cannot be confident about) However, these effects are all likely to be short‐lived if emissions return to pre‐lockdown levels Key Points: Emission reductions are likely to have led to a global reduction in short‐lived climate forcers and tropospheric oxidizing capacityReductions in O3 and aerosol from both lower emissions and decreased sulfate oxidation resulted in a net negative radiative forcingThe radiative impacts are small and short‐lived Longer term climate impacts must come through future sustained emission reductions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Geophysical Research Letters is the property of John Wiley & Sons, Inc and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use This abstract may be abridged No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract (Copyright applies to all Abstracts )read more
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Early spring near-surface ozone in Europe during the COVID-19 shutdown: Meteorological effects outweigh emission changes.
TL;DR: The analysis of the expected NO2 and O3 concentrations in the absence of the lockdown, using generalised additive models fed by reanalysis meteorological data, shows that the low NO2 concentrations were mostly attributed to the emission reductions while O3 anomalies were dominated by the meteorology.
Journal ArticleDOI
COVID-19 Crisis Reduces Free Tropospheric Ozone across the Northern Hemisphere
Wolfgang Steinbrecht,Dagmar Kubistin,Christian Plass-Dülmer,Jonathan Davies,David W. Tarasick,Peter von der Gathen,Holger Deckelmann,Nis Jepsen,Rigel Kivi,Norrie Lyall,Matthias Palm,Justus Notholt,Bogumil Kois,Peter Oelsner,Marc Allaart,Ankie Piters,Michael Gill,Roeland Van Malderen,Andy Delcloo,Ralf Sussmann,Emmanuel Mahieu,Christian Servais,Gonzague Romanens,René Stübi,Gérard Ancellet,Sophie Godin-Beekmann,Shoma Yamanouchi,Kimberly Strong,Bryan J. Johnson,Patrick Cullis,Irina Petropavlovskikh,James W. Hannigan,Jose-Luis Hernandez,Ana Diaz Rodriguez,Tatsumi Nakano,Fernando Chouza,Thierry Leblanc,Carlos Torres,Omaira García,Amelie N. Röhling,Matthias Schneider,Thomas Blumenstock,M.B. Tully,Clare Paton-Walsh,Nicholas B. Jones,Richard Querel,Susan E. Strahan,Ryan M. Stauffer,Anne M. Thompson,Antje Inness,Richard Engelen,Kai-Lan Chang,Kai-Lan Chang,Owen R. Cooper,Owen R. Cooper +54 more
TL;DR: In this article, the COVID-19 related emissions reductions appear to be the major cause for the observed reduced free tropospheric ozone in 2020, over several months, and at so many stations, has not been observed in any previous year since at least 2000.
Journal ArticleDOI
Understanding the true effects of the COVID-19 lockdown on air pollution by means of machine learning.
TL;DR: A machine learning approach was designed and implemented to analyze local air quality improvements during the COVID-19 lockdown in Graz, Austria and the results presented give a real-world example of what pollutant concentration reductions can be achieved by reducing traffic-flows and other economic activities.
Journal ArticleDOI
Air quality variations in Northern South America during the COVID-19 lockdown.
Juan Felipe Méndez-Espinosa,Néstor Y. Rojas,Jorge Cabrera Vargas,Jorge E. Pachon,Luis Carlos Belalcazar,Omar Ramírez +5 more
TL;DR: This study analyzes the behavior of selected criteria air pollutants during the implementation of the SARS-CoV-2 lockdown in two high populated cities of the region: Bogotá and Medellín in Colombia to bring pollution close to WHO guidelines.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate Impacts of COVID-19 Induced Emission Changes
Andrew Gettelman,Andrew Gettelman,Robin Lamboll,Charles G. Bardeen,Piers M. Forster,Duncan Watson-Parris +5 more
TL;DR: This paper used estimates of emissions changes for 2020 in two Earth System Models (ESMs) to simulate the impacts of the COVID-19 economic changes and found that aerosol changes are the largest contribution to radiative forcing and temperature changes as a result of COVID19 affected emissions.
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