Showing papers in "Global Biogeochemical Cycles in 2016"

Toward more realistic projections of soil carbon dynamics by Earth system models

Abstract: Soil carbon (C) is a critical component of Earth system models (ESMs), and its diverse representations are a major source of the large spread across models in the terrestrial C sink from the third to fifth assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Improving soil C projections is of a high priority for Earth system modeling in the future IPCC and other assessments. To achieve this goal, we suggest that (1) model structures should reflect real-world processes, (2) parameters should be calibrated to match model outputs with observations, and (3) external forcing variables should accurately prescribe the environmental conditions that soils experience. First, most soil C cycle models simulate C input from litter production and C release through decomposition. The latter process has traditionally been represented by first-order decay functions, regulated primarily by temperature, moisture, litter quality, and soil texture. While this formulation well captures macroscopic soil organic C (SOC) dynamics, better understanding is needed of their underlying mechanisms as related to microbial processes, depth-dependent environmental controls, and other processes that strongly affect soil C dynamics. Second, incomplete use of observations in model parameterization is a major cause of bias in soil C projections from ESMs. Optimal parameter calibration with both pool- and flux-based data sets through data assimilation is among the highest priorities for near-term research to reduce biases among ESMs. Third, external variables are represented inconsistently among ESMs, leading to differences in modeled soil C dynamics. We recommend the implementation of traceability analyses to identify how external variables and model parameterizations influence SOC dynamics in different ESMs. Overall, projections of the terrestrial C sink can be substantially improved when reliable data sets are available to select the most representative model structure, constrain parameters, and prescribe forcing fields.

Rising atmospheric methane: 2007-2014 growth and isotopic shift

Abstract: From 2007 to 2013, the globally averaged mole fraction of methane in the atmosphere increased by 5.7 ± 1.2 ppb yr−1. Simultaneously, δ13CCH4 (a measure of the 13C/12C isotope ratio in methane) has shifted to significantly more negative values since 2007. Growth was extreme in 2014, at 12.5 ± 0.4 ppb, with a further shift to more negative values being observed at most latitudes. The isotopic evidence presented here suggests that the methane rise was dominated by significant increases in biogenic methane emissions, particularly in the tropics, for example, from expansion of tropical wetlands in years with strongly positive rainfall anomalies or emissions from increased agricultural sources such as ruminants and rice paddies. Changes in the removal rate of methane by the OH radical have not been seen in other tracers of atmospheric chemistry and do not appear to explain short-term variations in methane. Fossil fuel emissions may also have grown, but the sustained shift to more 13C-depleted values and its significant interannual variability, and the tropical and Southern Hemisphere loci of post-2007 growth, both indicate that fossil fuel emissions have not been the dominant factor driving the increase. A major cause of increased tropical wetland and tropical agricultural methane emissions, the likely major contributors to growth, may be their responses to meteorological change.

Decadal variations and trends of the global ocean carbon sink

Abstract: We investigate the variations of the ocean CO2 sink during the past three decades using global surface ocean maps of the partial pressure of CO2 reconstructed from observations contained in the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas Version 2. To create these maps, we used the neural network-based data-interpolation method of [Landschutzer2014], but extended the work in time from 1998 through 2011 to the period from 1982 through 2011. Our results suggest strong decadal variations in the global ocean carbon sink around a long-term increase that corresponds roughly to that expected from the rise in atmospheric CO2. The sink is estimated to have weakened during the 1990s toward a minimum uptake of only -0.8 ± 0.5 Pg C yr − 1 in 2000, and thereafter to have strengthened considerably to rates of more than -2.0 ± 0.5 Pg C yr − 1. These decadal variations originate mostly from the extratropical oceans while the tropical regions contribute primarily to interannual variations. Changes in sea-surface temperature affecting the solubility of CO2 explain part of these variations, particularly at subtropical latitudes. But most of the higher latitude changes are attributed to modifications in the surface concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity, induced by decadal variations in atmospheric forcing, with patterns that are reminiscent of those of the Northern and Southern Annular Modes. These decadal variations lead to a substantially smaller cumulative anthropogenic CO2 uptake of the ocean over the 1982 through 2011 period (reduction of 7.5 ± 5.5 Pg C) relative to that derived by the Global Carbon Budget.

How well do global ocean biogeochemistry models simulate dissolved iron distributions

Abstract: Numerical models of ocean biogeochemistry are relied upon to make projections about the impact of climate change on marine resources and test hypotheses regarding the drivers of past changes in climate and ecosystems. In large areas of the ocean, iron availability regulates the functioning of marine ecosystems and hence the ocean carbon cycle. Accordingly, our ability to quantify the drivers and impacts of fluctuations in ocean ecosystems and carbon cycling in space and time relies on first achieving an appropriate representation of the modern marine iron cycle in models. When the iron distributions from 13 global ocean biogeochemistry models are compared against the latest oceanic sections from the GEOTRACES program, we find that all models struggle to reproduce many aspects of the observed spatial patterns. Models that reflect the emerging evidence for multiple iron sources or subtleties of its internal cycling perform much better in capturing observed features than their simpler contemporaries, particularly in the ocean interior. We show that the substantial uncertainty in the input fluxes of iron results in a very wide range of residence times across models, which has implications for the response of ecosystems and global carbon cycling to perturbations. Given this large uncertainty, iron fertilization experiments based on any single current generation model should be interpreted with caution. Improvements to how such models represent iron scavenging and also biological cycling are needed to raise confidence in their projections of global biogeochemical change in the ocean.

Amazon forest response to repeated droughts

Abstract: The Amazon Basin has experienced more variable climate over the last decade, with a severe and widespread drought in 2005 causing large basin-wide losses of biomass. A drought of similar climatological magnitude occurred again in 2010; however, there has been no basin-wide ground-based evaluation of effects on vegetation. We examine to what extent the 2010 drought affected forest dynamics using ground-based observations of mortality and growth from an extensive forest plot network. We find that during the 2010 drought interval, forests did not gain biomass (net change: −0.43 Mg ha−1, confidence interval (CI): −1.11, 0.19, n = 97), regardless of whether forests experienced precipitation deficit anomalies. This contrasted with a long-term biomass sink during the baseline pre-2010 drought period (1998 to pre-2010) of 1.33 Mg ha−1 yr−1 (CI: 0.90, 1.74, p < 0.01). The resulting net impact of the 2010 drought (i.e., reversal of the baseline net sink) was −1.95 Mg ha−1 yr−1 (CI:−2.77, −1.18; p < 0.001). This net biomass impact was driven by an increase in biomass mortality (1.45 Mg ha−1 yr−1 CI: 0.66, 2.25, p < 0.001) and a decline in biomass productivity (−0.50 Mg ha−1 yr−1, CI:−0.78, −0.31; p < 0.001). Surprisingly, the magnitude of the losses through tree mortality was unrelated to estimated local precipitation anomalies and was independent of estimated local pre-2010 drought history. Thus, there was no evidence that pre-2010 droughts compounded the effects of the 2010 drought. We detected a systematic basin-wide impact of the 2010 drought on tree growth rates across Amazonia, which was related to the strength of the moisture deficit. This impact differed from the drought event in 2005 which did not affect productivity. Based on these ground data, live biomass in trees and corresponding estimates of live biomass in lianas and roots, we estimate that intact forests in Amazonia were carbon neutral in 2010 (−0.07 Pg C yr−1 CI:−0.42, 0.23), consistent with results from an independent analysis of airborne estimates of land-atmospheric fluxes during 2010. Relative to the long-term mean, the 2010 drought resulted in a reduction in biomass carbon uptake of 1.1 Pg C, compared to 1.6 Pg C for the 2005 event.

Particulate organic carbon and nitrogen export from major Arctic rivers

Abstract: Northern rivers connect a land area of approximately 20.5 million km2 to the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas. These rivers account for ~10% of global river discharge and transport massive quantities of dissolved and particulate materials that reflect watershed sources and impact biogeochemical cycling in the ocean. In this paper, multiyear data sets from a coordinated sampling program are used to characterize particulate organic carbon (POC) and particulate nitrogen (PN) export from the six largest rivers within the pan-Arctic watershed (Yenisey, Lena, Ob', Mackenzie, Yukon, Kolyma). Together, these rivers export an average of 3055 × 109 g of POC and 368 × 109 g of PN each year. Scaled up to the pan-Arctic watershed as a whole, fluvial export estimates increase to 5767 × 109 g and 695 × 109 g of POC and PN per year, respectively. POC export is substantially lower than dissolved organic carbon export by these rivers, whereas PN export is roughly equal to dissolved nitrogen export. Seasonal patterns in concentrations and source/composition indicators (C:N, δ13C, Δ14C, δ15N) are broadly similar among rivers, but distinct regional differences are also evident. For example, average radiocarbon ages of POC range from ~2000 (Ob') to ~5500 (Mackenzie) years before present. Rapid changes within the Arctic system as a consequence of global warming make it challenging to establish a contemporary baseline of fluvial export, but the results presented in this paper capture variability and quantify average conditions for nearly a decade at the beginning of the 21st century.

Mercury isotope compositions across North American forests

Abstract: Forest biomass and soils represent some of the largest reservoirs of actively cycling mercury (Hg) on Earth, but many uncertainties exist regarding the source and fate of Hg in forest ecosystems. We systematically characterized stable isotope compositions of Hg in foliage, litter, and mineral soil horizons across 10 forest sites in the contiguous United States. The mass independent isotope signatures in all forest depth profiles are more consistent with those of atmospheric Hg(0) than those of atmospheric Hg(II), indicating that atmospheric Hg(0) is the larger source of Hg to forest ecosystems. Within litter horizons, we observed significant enrichment in Hg concentration and heavier isotopes along the depth, which we hypothesize to result from additional deposition of atmospheric Hg(0) during litter decomposition. Furthermore, Hg isotope signatures in mineral soils closely resemble those of the overlying litter horizons suggesting incorporation of Hg from litter as a key source of soil Hg. The spatial distribution of Hg isotope compositions in mineral soils across all sites is modeled by isotopic mixing assuming atmospheric Hg(II), atmospheric Hg(0) and geogenic Hg as major sources. This model shows that northern sites with higher precipitation tend to have higher atmospheric Hg(0) deposition than other sites, whereas drier sites in the western U.S. tend to have higher atmospheric Hg(II) deposition than the rest. We attribute these differences primarily to the higher litterfall Hg input at northern wetter sites due to increased plant productivity by precipitation. These results allow for a better understanding of Hg cycling across the atmosphere-forest-soil interface.

Are mangroves drivers or buffers of coastal acidification? Insights from alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon export estimates across a latitudinal transect

Abstract: Mangrove forests are hot spots in the global carbon cycle, yet the fate for a majority of mangrove net primary production remains unaccounted for. The relative proportions of alkalinity and dissolved CO2 [CO2*] within the dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) exported from mangroves is unknown, and therefore, the effect of mangrove DIC exports on coastal acidification remains unconstrained. Here we measured dissolved inorganic carbon parameters over complete tidal and diel cycles in six pristine mangrove tidal creeks covering a 26° latitudinal gradient in Australia and calculated the exchange of DIC, alkalinity, and [CO2*] between mangroves and the coastal ocean. We found a mean DIC export of 59 mmol m−2 d−1 across the six systems, ranging from import of 97 mmol m−2 d−1 to an export of 85 mmol m−2 d−1. If the Australian transect is representative of global mangroves, upscaling our estimates would result in global DIC exports of 3.6 ± 1.1 Tmol C yr−1, which accounts for approximately one third of the previously unaccounted for mangrove carbon sink. Alkalinity exchange ranged between an import of 1.2 mmol m−2 d−1 and an export of 117 mmol m−2 d−1 with an estimated global export of 4.2 ± 1.3 Tmol yr−1. A net import of free CO2 was estimated (−11.4 ± 14.8 mmol m−2 d−1) and was equivalent to approximately one third of the air-water CO2 flux (33.1 ± 6.3 mmol m−2 d−1). Overall, the effect of DIC and alkalinity exports created a measurable localized increase in coastal ocean pH. Therefore, mangroves may partially counteract coastal acidification in adjacent tropical waters.

The Greenland Ice Sheet as a hot spot of phosphorus weathering and export in the Arctic

Abstract: The contribution of ice sheets to the global biogeochemical cycle of phosphorus is largely unknown, due to the lack of field data. Here we present the first comprehensive study of phosphorus export from two Greenland Ice Sheet glaciers. Our results indicate that the ice sheet is a hot spot of phosphorus export in the Arctic. Soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentrations, up to 0.35 µM, are similar to those observed in Arctic rivers. Yields of SRP are among the highest in the literature, with denudation rates of 17–27 kg P km−2 yr−1. Particulate phases, as with nonglaciated catchments, dominate phosphorus export (>97% of total phosphorus flux). The labile particulate fraction differs between the two glaciers studied, with significantly higher yields found at the larger glacier (57.3 versus 8.3 kg P km−2 yr−1). Total phosphorus yields are an order of magnitude higher than riverine values reported in the literature. We estimate that the ice sheet contributes ~15% of total bioavailable phosphorus input to the Arctic oceans (~11 Gg yr−1) and dominates total phosphorus input (408 Gg yr−1), which is more than 3 times that estimated from Arctic rivers (126 Gg yr−1). We predict that these fluxes will rise with increasing ice sheet freshwater discharge in the future.

Finding forced trends in oceanic oxygen

Abstract: Anthropogenically forced trends in oceanic dissolved oxygen are evaluated in Earth system models in the context of natural variability. A large ensemble of a single Earth system model is used to clearly identify the forced component of change in interior oxygen distributions and to evaluate the magnitude of this signal relative to noise generated by internal climate variability. The time of emergence of forced trends is quantified on the basis of anomalies in oxygen concentrations and trends. We find that the forced signal should already be evident in the southern Indian Ocean and parts of the eastern tropical Pacific and Atlantic basins; widespread detection of forced deoxygenation is possible by 2030–2040. In addition to considering spatially discrete metrics of detection, we evaluate the similarity of the spatial structures associated with natural variability and the forced trend. Outside of the subtropics, these patterns are not wholly distinct on the isopycnal surfaces considered, and therefore, this approach does not provide significantly advanced detection. Our results clearly demonstrate the strong impact of natural climate variability on interior oxygen distributions, providing an important context for interpreting observations.

Sources of uncertainties in 21st century projections of potential ocean ecosystem stressors

Abstract: Future projections of potential ocean ecosystem stressors, such as acidification, warming, deoxygenation and changes in ocean productivity, are uncertain due to incomplete understanding of fundamental processes, internal climate variability, and divergent carbon emissions scenarios. This complicates climate change impact assessments. We evaluate the relative importance of these uncertainty sources in projections of potential stressors as a function of projection lead-time and spatial scale. Internally generated climate variability is the dominant source of uncertainty in mid-to-low latitudes and in most coastal Large Marine Ecosystems over the next few decades, suggesting irreducible uncertainty inherent in these short projections. Uncertainty in projections of century-scale global sea surface temperature (SST), global thermocline oxygen, and regional surface pH is dominated by scenario uncertainty, highlighting the critical importance of policy decisions on carbon emissions. In contrast, uncertainty in century-scale projections of net primary productivity (NPP), low oxygen waters, and Southern Ocean SST is dominated by model uncertainty, underscoring the importance of overcoming deficiencies in scientific understanding and improved process representation in Earth system models are critical for making more robust projections of these potential stressors. We also show that changes in the combined potential stressors emerge from the noise in 39% (34 – 44%) of the ocean by 2016-2035 relative to the 1986-2005 reference period and in 54% (50 – 60%) of the ocean by 2076-2095 following a high carbon emissions scenario. Projected large changes in surface pH and SST can be reduced substantially and rapidly with aggressive carbon emission mitigation, but only marginally for oxygen. The regional importance of model uncertainty and internal variability underscores the need for expanded and improved multi-model and large initial condition ensemble projections with Earth system models for evaluating regional marine resource impacts.

Aboveground biomass variability across intact and degraded forests in the Brazilian Amazon

Abstract: Deforestation rates have declined in the Brazilian Amazon since 2005, yet degradation from logging, re, and fragmentation has continued in frontier forests. In this study we quantified the aboveground carbon density (ACD) in intact and degraded forests using the largest data set of integrated forest inventory plots (n 359) and airborne lidar data (18,000 ha) assembled to date for the Brazilian Amazon. We developed statistical models relating inventory ACD estimates to lidar metrics that explained70 of the variance across forest types. Airborne lidar-ACD estimates for intact forests ranged between 5.0 +/- 2.5 and 31.9 +/- 10.8 kg C m(exp -2). Degradation carbon losses were large and persistent. Sites that burned multiple times within a decade lost up to 15.0 +/- 0.7 kg C m(-2)(94%) of ACD. Forests that burned nearly15 years ago had between 4.1 +/- 0.5 and 6.8 +/- 0.3 kg C m(exp -2) (22-40%) less ACD than intact forests. Even for low-impact logging disturbances, ACD was between 0.7 +/- 0.3 and 4.4 +/- 0.4 kg C m(exp -2)(4-21%) lower than unlogged forests. Comparing biomass estimates from airborne lidar to existing biomass maps, we found that regional and pan-tropical products consistently overestimated ACD in degraded forests, under-estimated ACD in intact forests, and showed little sensitivity to res and logging. Fine-scale heterogeneity in ACD across intact and degraded forests highlights the benefits of airborne lidar for carbon mapping. Differences between airborne lidar and regional biomass maps underscore the need to improve and update biomass estimates for dynamic land use frontiers, to better characterize deforestation and degradation carbon emissions for regional carbon budgets and Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation(REDD+).

A mass budget for mercury and methylmercury in the Arctic Ocean

Abstract: Elevated biological concentrations of methylmercury (MeHg), a bioaccumulative neurotoxin, are observed throughout the Arctic Ocean, but major sources and degradation pathways in seawater are not well understood. We develop a mass budget for mercury species in the Arctic Ocean based on available data since 2004 and discuss implications and uncertainties. Our calculations show that high total mercury (Hg) in Arctic seawater relative to other basins reflect large freshwater inputs and sea ice cover that inhibits losses through evasion. We find that most net MeHg production (20 Mg a−1) occurs in the subsurface ocean (20–200 m). There it is converted to dimethylmercury (Me2Hg: 17 Mg a−1), which diffuses to the polar mixed layer and evades to the atmosphere (14 Mg a−1). Me2Hg has a short atmospheric lifetime and rapidly degrades back to MeHg. We postulate that most evaded Me2Hg is redeposited as MeHg and that atmospheric deposition is the largest net MeHg source (8 Mg a−1) to the biologically productive surface ocean. MeHg concentrations in Arctic Ocean seawater are elevated compared to lower latitudes. Riverine MeHg inputs account for approximately 15% of inputs to the surface ocean (2.5 Mg a−1) but greater importance in the future is likely given increasing freshwater discharges and permafrost melt. This may offset potential declines driven by increasing evasion from ice-free surface waters. Geochemical model simulations illustrate that for the most biologically relevant regions of the ocean, regulatory actions that decrease Hg inputs have the capacity to rapidly affect aquatic Hg concentrations.

Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009

Abstract: A significant portion of the large amount of carbon (C) currently stored in soils of the permafrost region in the Northern Hemisphere has the potential to be emitted as the greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4 under a warmer climate. In this study we evaluated the variability in the sensitivity of permafrost and C in recent decades among land surface model simulations over the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009. The 15 model simulations all predict a loss of near-surface permafrost (within 3 m) area over the region, but there are large differences in the magnitude of the simulated rates of loss among the models (0.2 to 58.8 × 103 km2 yr−1). Sensitivity simulations indicated that changes in air temperature largely explained changes in permafrost area, although interactions among changes in other environmental variables also played a role. All of the models indicate that both vegetation and soil C storage together have increased by 156 to 954 Tg C yr−1 between 1960 and 2009 over the permafrost region even though model analyses indicate that warming alone would decrease soil C storage. Increases in gross primary production (GPP) largely explain the simulated increases in vegetation and soil C. The sensitivity of GPP to increases in atmospheric CO2 was the dominant cause of increases in GPP across the models, but comparison of simulated GPP trends across the 1982–2009 period with that of a global GPP data set indicates that all of the models overestimate the trend in GPP. Disturbance also appears to be an important factor affecting C storage, as models that consider disturbance had lower increases in C storage than models that did not consider disturbance. To improve the modeling of C in the permafrost region, there is the need for the modeling community to standardize structural representation of permafrost and carbon dynamics among models that are used to evaluate the permafrost C feedback and for the modeling and observational communities to jointly develop data sets and methodologies to more effectively benchmark models.

Linking temperature sensitivity of soil CO2 release to substrate, environmental, and microbial properties across alpine ecosystems

Abstract: Our knowledge of fundamental drivers of the temperature sensitivity (Q10) of soil carbon dioxide (CO2) release is crucial for improving the predictability of soil carbon dynamics in Earth System Models. However, patterns and determinants of Q10 over a broad geographic scale are not fully understood, especially in alpine ecosystems. Here, we address this issue by incubating surface soils (0-10 cm) obtained from 156 sites across Tibetan alpine grasslands. Q10 was estimated from the dynamics of the soil CO2 release rate under varying temperatures of 5-25 oC. Structure equation modeling was performed to evaluate the relative importance of substrate, environmental and microbial properties in regulating the soil CO2 release rate and Q10. Our results indicated that steppe soils had significantly lower CO2 release rates but higher Q10 than meadow soils. The combination of substrate properties and environmental variables could predict 52% of the variation in soil CO2 release rate across all grassland sites, and explained 37% and 58% of the variation in Q10 across the steppe and meadow sites, respectively. Of these, precipitation was the best predictor of soil CO2 release rate. Basal microbial respiration rate (B) was the most important predictor of Q10 in steppe soils, whereas soil pH outweighed B as the major regulator in meadow soils. These results demonstrate that carbon quality and environmental variables co-regulate Q10 across alpine ecosystems, implying that modelers can rely on the ‘carbon-quality temperature’ hypothesis for estimating apparent temperature sensitivities, but relevant environmental factors, especially soil pH, should be considered in higher-productivity alpine regions.

The CAFE model: A net production model for global ocean phytoplankton

Abstract: The Carbon, Absorption, and Fluorescence Euphotic-resolving (CAFE) net primary production model is an adaptable framework for advancing global ocean productivity assessments by exploiting state-of-the-art satellite ocean color analyses and addressing key physiological and ecological attributes of phytoplankton. Here, we present the first implementation of the CAFE model that incorporates inherent optical properties derived from ocean color measurements into a mechanistic and accurate model of phytoplankton growth rates (μ) and net phytoplankton production (NPP). The CAFE model calculates NPP as the product of energy absorption (QPAR), and the efficiency (φμ) by which absorbed energy is converted into carbon biomass (CPhyto), while μ is calculated as NPP normalized to CPhyto. The CAFE model performance is evaluated alongside 21 other NPP models against a spatially robust and globally representative set of direct NPP measurements. This analysis demonstrates that the CAFE model explains the greatest amount of variance and has the lowest model bias relative to other NPP models analyzed with this dataset. Global oceanic NPP from the CAFE model (52 Pg C m-2 yr-1) and mean division rates (0.34 d-1) are derived from climatological satellite data (2002-2014). This manuscript discusses and validates individual CAFE model parameters (e.g. QPAR, φμ), provides detailed sensitivity analyses, and compares the CAFE model results and parameterization to other widely cited models.

Factors regulating the Great Calcite Belt in the Southern Ocean and its biogeochemical significance

Abstract: The Great Calcite Belt (GCB) is a region of elevated surface reflectance in the Southern Ocean (SO) covering ~16% of the global ocean and is thought to result from elevated, seasonal concentrations of coccolithophores. Here we describe field observations and experiments from two cruises that crossed the GCB in the Atlantic and Indian sectors of the SO. We confirm the presence of coccolithophores, their coccoliths, and associated optical scattering, located primarily in the region of the subtropical, Agulhas, and Subantarctic frontal regions. Coccolithophore-rich regions were typically associated with high-velocity frontal regions with higher seawater partial pressures of CO2 (pCO2) than the atmosphere, sufficient to reverse the direction of gas exchange to a CO2 source. There was no calcium carbonate (CaCO3) enhancement of particulate organic carbon (POC) export, but there were increased POC transfer efficiencies in high-flux particulate inorganic carbon regions. Contemporaneous observations are synthesized with results of trace-metal incubation experiments, 234Th-based flux estimates, and remotely sensed observations to generate a mandala that summarizes our understanding about the factors that regulate the location of the GCB.

Changes in anthropogenic nitrogen and phosphorus inputs to the St. Lawrence sub-basin over 110 years and impacts on riverine export

Abstract: Human activities have increased the flow of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) over much of the Earth, leading to increased agricultural production, but also the degradation of air, soil, and water quality. Here we quantify the sources of anthropogenic N and P inputs to 76 watersheds of the St. Lawrence Basin (SLB) throughout the 20th century using NANI/NAPI (net anthropogenic N/P input to watersheds), a mass balance modeling approach, and estimate the fraction of these inputs exported to adjacent rivers. Our results show that since 1901, NANI and NAPI increased 4.5-fold and 3.8-fold, respectively, with a peak in 1991 mainly due to high atmospheric N deposition and P fertilizer application. However, the relative increase over the course of the last century was much higher in certain watersheds, particularly those where there was greater urbanization. Ranges in NANI and NAPI vary greatly among watersheds (110 to 9351 kg N km−2 yr−1 and 0.16 to 1938 kg P km−2 yr−1, respectively in 2011) and are strongly related to riverine fluxes (R2 = 0.87 and 0.71 for N and P, respectively). Our results suggest that 22% of NANI (ranging from 11% to 68% across watersheds) and 17% of NAPI (ranging from 3% to 173%) are exported to rivers. Predominant sources of inputs vary spatially and through time largely due to changes in farming practices. By tracking the main sources of inputs to specific watersheds and through time, our work provides insights for N and P management. Reduction strategies will likely need to be watershed specific, although through time, our results clearly show the large-scale impact of targeted legislation.

Methane emissions from global rice fields: Magnitude, spatiotemporal patterns, and environmental controls

Abstract: Given the importance of the potential positive feedback between methane (CH4) emissions and climate change, it is critical to accurately estimate the magnitude and spatio-temporal patterns of CH4 emissions from global rice fields and better understand the underlying determinants governing the emissions. Here, we used a coupled biogeochemical model in combination with satellite-derived contemporary inundation area to quantify the magnitude and spatio-temporal variation of CH4 emissions from global rice fields and attribute the environmental controls of CH4 emissions during 1901-2010. Our study estimated that CH4 emissions from global rice fields varied from 18.3 ± 0.1 Tg CH4/yr (Avg. ± 1 std. dev.) under intermittent irrigation to 38.8 ± 1.0 Tg CH4/yr under continuous flooding in the 2000s, indicating that the magnitude of CH4 emissions from global rice fields was largely dependent on different water schemes. Over the past 110 years, our simulated results showed that global CH4 emissions from rice cultivation increased 85%. The expansion of rice fields was the dominant factor for the increasing trends of CH4 emissions, followed by elevated CO2 concentration, and nitrogen fertilizer use. On the contrary, climate had the negative effect on the cumulative CH4 emissions for most of the years over the study period. Our results imply that CH4 emissions from global rice fields could be reduced through implementing optimized irrigation practices. Therefore, the future magnitude of CH4 emissions from rice fields will be determined by the human demand for rice production as well as the implementation of optimized water management practices.

Effects of African dust deposition on phytoplankton in the western tropical Atlantic Ocean off Barbados

Abstract: Bioassay incubation experiments conducted with nutrients and local atmospheric aerosol amendments indicate that phosphorus (P) availability limited phytoplankton growth in the low-nutrient low-chlorophyll (LNLC) ocean off Barbados. Atmospheric deposition provides a relatively large influx of new nutrients and trace metals to the surface ocean in this region in comparison to other nutrient sources. However, the impact on native phytoplankton is muted due to the high ratio of nitrogen (N) to P (NO3:SRP > 40) and the low P solubility of these aerosols. Atmospheric deposition induces P limitation in this LNLC region by adding more N and iron (Fe) relative to P. This favors the growth of Prochlorococcus, a genus characterized by low P requirements and highly efficient P acquisition mechanisms. A global three-dimensional marine ecosystem model that includes species-specific phytoplankton elemental quotas/stoichiometry and the atmospheric deposition of N, P, and Fe supports this conclusion. Future increases in aerosol N loading may therefore influence phytoplankton community structure in other LNLC areas, thereby affecting the biological pump and associated carbon sequestration.

Dynamics of carbonate chemistry, production, and calcification of the Florida Reef Tract (2009–2010): Evidence for seasonal dissolution

Abstract: Ocean acidification is projected to lower the Ωar of reefal waters by 0.3–0.4 units by the end of century, making it more difficult for calcifying organisms to secrete calcium carbonate while at the same time making the environment more favorable for abiotic and biotic dissolution of the reefal framework. There is great interest in being able to project the point in time when coral reefs will cross the tipping point between being net depositional to net erosional in terms of their carbonate budgets. Periodic in situ assessments of the balance between carbonate production and dissolution that spans seasonal time scales may prove useful in monitoring and formulating projections of the impact of ocean acidification on reefal carbonate production. This study represents the first broad-scale geochemical survey of the rates of net community production (NCP) and net community calcification (NCC) across the Florida Reef Tract (FRT). Surveys were performed at approximately quarterly intervals in 2009–2010 across seven onshore-offshore transects spanning the upper, middle, and lower Florida Keys. Averaged across the FRT, the rates of NCP and NCC were positive during the spring/summer at 62 ± 7 and 17 ± 2 mmol m−2 d−1, respectively, and negative during the fall/winter at −33 ± 6 and −7 ± 2 mmol m−2 d−1. The most significant finding of the study was that the northernmost reef is already net erosional (−1.1 ± 0.4 kg CaCO3 m−2 yr−1) and midreefs to the south were net depositional on an annual basis (0.4 ± 0.1 kg CaCO3 m−2 yr−1) but erosional during the fall and winter. Only the two southernmost reefs were net depositional year-round. These results indicate that parts of the FRT have already crossed the tipping point for carbonate production and other parts are getting close.

Influence of plankton community structure on the sinking velocity of marine aggregates

Abstract: About 50 Gt of carbon is fixed photosynthetically by surface ocean phytoplankton communities every year. Part of this organic matter is reprocessed within the plankton community to form aggregates which eventually sink and export carbon into the deep ocean. The fraction of organic matter leaving the surface ocean is partly dependent on aggregate sinking velocity which accelerates with increasing aggregate size and density, where the latter is controlled by ballast load and aggregate porosity. In May 2011, we moored nine 25 m deep mesocosms in a Norwegian fjord to assess on a daily basis how plankton community structure affects material properties and sinking velocities of aggregates (O 80–400 µm) collected in the mesocosms' sediment traps. We noted that sinking velocity was not necessarily accelerated by opal ballast during diatom blooms, which could be due to relatively high porosity of these rather fresh aggregates. Furthermore, estimated aggregate porosity (Pestimated) decreased as the picoautotroph (0.2–2 µm) fraction of the phytoplankton biomass increased. Thus, picoautotroph-dominated communities may be indicative for food webs promoting a high degree of aggregate repackaging with potential for accelerated sinking. Blooms of the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi revealed that cell concentrations of ~1500 cells/mL accelerate sinking by about 35–40%, which we estimate (by one-dimensional modeling) to elevate organic matter transfer efficiency through the mesopelagic from 14 to 24%. Our results indicate that sinking velocities are influenced by the complex interplay between the availability of ballast minerals and aggregate packaging; both of which are controlled by plankton community structure.

Annual cycles of phytoplankton biomass in the subarctic Atlantic and Pacific Ocean

Abstract: High-latitude phytoplankton blooms support productive fisheries and play an important role in oceanic uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide. In the subarctic North Atlantic Ocean, blooms are a recurrent feature each year, while in the eastern subarctic Pacific only small changes in chlorophyll (Chl) are seen over the annual cycle. Here we show that when evaluated using phytoplankton carbon biomass (Cphyto) rather than Chl, an annual bloom in the North Pacific is evident and can even rival blooms observed in the North Atlantic. The annual increase in subarctic Pacific phytoplankton biomass is not readily observed in the Chl record because it is paralleled by light- and nutrient-driven decreases in cellular pigment levels (Cphyto:Chl). Specifically, photoacclimation and iron stress effects on Cphyto:Chl oppose the biomass increase, leading to only modest changes in bulk Chl. The magnitude of the photoacclimation effect is quantified using descriptors of the near-surface light environment and a photophysiological model. Iron stress effects are diagnosed from satellite chlorophyll fluorescence data. Lastly, we show that biomass accumulation in the Pacific is slower than that in the Atlantic but is closely tied to similar levels of seasonal nutrient uptake in both basins. Annual cycles of satellite-derived Chl and Cphyto are reproduced by in situ autonomous profiling floats. These results contradict the long-standing paradigm that environmental conditions prevent phytoplankton accumulation in the subarctic Northeast Pacific and suggest a greater seasonal decoupling between phytoplankton growth and losses than traditionally implied. Further, our results highlight the role of physiological processes in shaping bulk properties, such as Chl, and their interpretation in studies of ocean ecosystem dynamics and climate change.

The anthropogenic perturbation of the marine nitrogen cycle by atmospheric deposition: Nitrogen cycle feedbacks and the 15N Haber‐Bosch effect

Abstract: Over the last 100 years, anthropogenic emissions have led to a strong increase of atmospheric nitrogen deposition over the ocean, yet the resulting impacts and feedbacks are neither well understood nor quantified. To this end, we run a suite of simulations with the ocean component of the Community Earth System Model v1.2 forced with five scenarios of nitrogen deposition over the period from 1850 through 2100, while keeping all other forcings unchanged. Even though global oceanic net primary production increases little in response to this fertilization, the higher export and the resulting expansion of the oxygen minimum zones cause an increase in pelagic and benthic denitrification and burial by about 5%. In addition, the enhanced availability of fixed nitrogen in the surface ocean reduces global ocean N2-fixation by more than 10%. Despite the compensating effects through these negative feedbacks that eliminate by the year 2000 about 60% of the deposited nitrogen, the anthropogenic nitrogen input forced the upper ocean N-budget into an imbalance of between 9 to 22 Tg N yr−1 depending on the deposition scenario. The excess nitrogen accumulates to highly detectable levels and causes in most areas a distinct negative trend in the δ15N of the oceanic fixed nitrogen pools - a trend we refer to as the 15N Haber-Bosch effect. Changes in surface nitrate utilization and the nitrogen feedbacks induce further changes in the δ15N of NO3, making it a good, but complex recorder of the overall impact of the changes in atmospheric deposition.

Evaluating the drought response of CMIP5 models using global gross primary productivity, leaf area, precipitation, and soil moisture data

Abstract: Realistic representation of vegetation's response to drought is important for understanding terrestrial carbon cycling. We evaluated 9 Earth System Models from the historical experiment of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the response of gross primary productivity (GPP) and leaf area index (LAI) to hydrological anomalies. Hydrological anomalies were characterized by the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and surface soil moisture anomalies (SMA). GPP and LAI in models were on average more responsive to SPI than in observations revealed through several indicators. First, we find higher mean correlations between global annual anomalies of GPP and SPI in models than observations. Second, the maximum correlation between GPP and SPI across 1-24 month timescales is higher in models than observations. And finally we found stronger excursions of GPP to extreme dry or wet events. Similar to GPP, LAI responded more to SPI in models than observations. The over-response of models is smaller if evaluated based on SMA instead of SPI. LAI responses to SMA are inconsistent among models, showing both higher and lower LAI when soil moisture is reduced. The timescale of maximum correlation is shorter in models than the observation for GPP and the markedly different response timescales among models for LAI indicate gaps in understanding how variability of water availability affects foliar cover. The discrepancy of responses derived from SPI and SMA among models, and between models and observations calls for improvement in understanding the dynamics of plant-available water in addition to how vegetation responds to these anomalies.

An impulse response function for the “long tail” of excess atmospheric CO2 in an Earth system model

Abstract: Author(s): Lord, NS; Ridgwell, A; Thorne, MC; Lunt, DJ | Abstract: The ultimate fate of (fossil fuel) CO2 emitted to the atmosphere is governed by a range of sedimentological and geological processes operating on timescales of up to the ca. hundred thousand year response of the silicate weathering feedback. However, how the various geological CO2 sinks might saturate and feedbacks weaken in response to increasing total emissions is poorly known. Here we explore the relative importance and timescales of these processes using a 3-D ocean-based Earth system model. We first generate an ensemble of 1 Myr duration CO2 decay curves spanning cumulative emissions of up to 20,000 Pg C. To aid characterization and understanding of the model response to increasing emission size, we then generate an impulse response function description for the long-term fate of CO2 in the model. In terms of the process of carbonate weathering and burial, our analysis is consistent with a progressively increasing fraction of total emissions that are removed from the atmosphere as emissions increase, due to the ocean carbon sink becoming saturated, together with a lengthening of the timescale of removal from the atmosphere. However, we find that in our model the ultimate CO2 sink - silicate weathering feedback - is approximately invariant with respect to cumulative emissions, both in terms of its importance (it removes the remaining excess ~7% of total emissions from the atmosphere) and timescale (~270 kyr). Because a simple pulse-response description leads to initially large predictive errors for a realistic time-varying carbon release, we also develop a convolution-based description of atmospheric CO2 decay which can be used as a simple and efficient means of making long-term carbon cycle perturbation projections. Key Points An ensemble of CO2 pulse emissions are modeled using an Earth system model Our impulse response function projects the atmospheric lifetime of emitted CO2 We characterize how the marine CO2 sinks tend to saturate at very high emissions.

Origins, Seasonality and Fluxes of Organic Matter in the Congo River

Abstract: The Congo River in central Africa represents a major source of organic matter (OM) to the Atlantic Ocean. This study examined elemental (%OC, %N, and C:N), stable isotopic (δ13C and δ15N), and biomarker composition (lignin phenols) of particulate OM (POM) and dissolved OM (DOM) across the seasonal hydrograph. Even though the Congo exhibits an extremely stable intra-annual discharge regime, seasonal variability in OM composition was evident. DOM appears predominantly derived from vascular plant inputs with greater relative contribution during the rising limb and peak in discharge associated with the major November–December discharge maximum. Generally, POM appears to be sourced from soil-derived mineral-associated OM (low C:N, low Λ8, and higher (Ad:Al)v) but the relative proportion of fresh vascular plant material (higher C:N, higher Λ8, and lower (Ad:Al)v) increases with higher discharge. During the study period (September 2009 to November 2010) the Congo exported 29.21 Tg yr−1 of total suspended sediment (TSS), 1.96 Tg yr−1 of particulate organic carbon (POC), and 12.48 Tg yr−1 of dissolved organic carbon. The Congo exports an order of magnitude lower TSS load in comparison to other major riverine sources of TSS (e.g., Ganges and Brahmaputra), but due to its OM-rich character it actually exports a comparable amount of POC. The Congo is also 2.5 times more efficient at exporting dissolved lignin per unit volume compared to the Amazon. Including Congo dissolved lignin data in residence time calculations for lignin in the Atlantic Ocean results in an approximately 10% reduction from the existing estimate, suggesting that this material is more reactive than previously thought.

Temperature influence on phytoplankton community growth rates

Abstract: A large database of field estimates of phytoplankton community growth rates in natural populations was compiled and analyzed to determine the apparent temperature effect on phytoplankton community growth rate. We conducted an ordinary least squares regression to optimize the parameters in two commonly used growth-temperature relations (Arrhenius and Q10 models). Both equations fit the observational data equally with the optimized parameter values. The optimum apparent Q10 value was 1.47 ± 0.08 (95% confidence interval, CI). Microzooplankton grazing rates closely matched the temperature trends for phytoplankton growth. This likely reflects a dynamic adjustment of biomass and grazing rates by the microzooplankton to match their available food source, illustrating tight coupling of phytoplankton growth and microzooplankton grazing rates. The field-measured temperature effect and growth rates were compared with estimates from the satellite Carbon-based Productivity Model (CbPM) and three Earth System Models (ESMs), with model output extracted at the same month and sampling locations as the observations. The optimized, apparent Q10 value calculated for the CbPM was 1.51, with overestimation of growth rates. The apparent Q10 value in the Community Earth System Model (V1.0) was 1.65, with modest underestimation of growth rates. The GFDL-ESM2M and GFDL-ESM2G models produced apparent Q10 values of 1.52 and 1.39, respectively. Models with an apparent Q10 that is significantly greater than ~1.5 will overestimate the phytoplankton community growth response to the ongoing climate warming and will have spatial biases in estimated growth rates for the current era.

Rapid Anthropogenic Changes in CO2 and pH in the Atlantic Ocean: 2003‐2014

Abstract: The extended multilinear regression method is used to determine the uptake and storage of anthropogenic carbon in the Atlantic Ocean based on repeat occupations of four cruises from 1989 to 2014 (A16, A20, A22, and A10), with an emphasis on the 2003–2014 period. The results show a significant increase in basin-wide anthropogenic carbon storage in the North Atlantic, which absorbed 4.4 ± 0.9 Pg C decade−1 from 2003 to 2014 compared to 1.9 ± 0.4 Pg C decade−1 for the 1989–2003 period. This decadal variability is attributed to changing ventilation patterns associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation and increasing release of anthropogenic carbon into the atmosphere. There are small changes in the uptake rate of CO2 in the South Atlantic for these time periods (3.7 ± 0.8 Pg C decade−1 versus 3.2 ± 0.7 Pg C decade−1). Several eddies are identified containing ~20% more anthropogenic carbon than the surrounding waters in the South Atlantic demonstrating the importance of eddies in transporting anthropogenic carbon. The uptake of carbon results in a decrease in pH of ~0.0021 ± 0.0007 year−1 for surface waters during the last 10 years, in line with the atmospheric increase in CO2.