Integrating pests and pathogens into the climate change/food security debate
TLDR
More mechanistic inclusion of pests and pathogen effects in crop models would lead to more realistic predictions of crop production on a regional scale and thereby assist in the development of more robust regional food security policies.Abstract:
While many studies have demonstrated the sensitivities of plants and of crop yield to a changing climate, a major challenge for the agricultural research community is to relate these findings to the broader societal concern with food security. This paper reviews the direct effects of climate on both crop growth and yield and on plant pests and pathogens and the interactions that may occur between crops, pests, and pathogens under changed climate. Finally, we consider the contribution that better understanding of the roles of pests and pathogens in crop production systems might make to enhanced food security. Evidence for the measured climate change on crops and their associated pests and pathogens is starting to be documented. Globally atmospheric [CO(2)] has increased, and in northern latitudes mean temperature at many locations has increased by about 1.0-1.4 degrees C with accompanying changes in pest and pathogen incidence and to farming practices. Many pests and pathogens exhibit considerable capacity for generating, recombining, and selecting fit combinations of variants in key pathogenicity, fitness, and aggressiveness traits that there is little doubt that any new opportunities resulting from climate change will be exploited by them. However, the interactions between crops and pests and pathogens are complex and poorly understood in the context of climate change. More mechanistic inclusion of pests and pathogen effects in crop models would lead to more realistic predictions of crop production on a regional scale and thereby assist in the development of more robust regional food security policies.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Emerging fungal threats to animal, plant and ecosystem health.
Matthew C. Fisher,Daniel A. Henk,Cheryl J. Briggs,John S. Brownstein,Lawrence C. Madoff,Sarah L. McCraw,Sarah J. Gurr +6 more
TL;DR: It is argued that nascent fungal infections will cause increasing attrition of biodiversity, with wider implications for human and ecosystem health, unless steps are taken to tighten biosecurity worldwide.
Journal ArticleDOI
A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation
Andrew J. Challinor,Andrew J. Challinor,James E. M. Watson,David B. Lobell,SM Howden,Daniel R. Smith,Netra Chhetri +6 more
TL;DR: In this paper, a comprehensive summary of studies that simulate climate change impacts on agriculture are reported in a meta-analysis, which suggests that aggregate yield losses should be expected for wheat, rice and maize in temperate and tropical growing regions even under relatively moderate levels of local warming.
Journal ArticleDOI
A framework for community interactions under climate change
Sarah E. Gilman,Sarah E. Gilman,Mark C. Urban,Joshua J. Tewksbury,George W. Gilchrist,George W. Gilchrist,Robert D. Holt +6 more
TL;DR: This work proposes a framework based on ideas from global-change biology, community ecology, and invasion biology that uses community modules to assess how species interactions shape responses to climate change.
Food security and food production systems
John R. Porter,Liyong Xie,Andrew J. Challinor,Kevern L. Cochrane,S. Mark Howden,Muhammad Iqbal,David B. Lobell,Maria I. Travasso,Netra Chhetri,Karen A. Garrett,John Ingram,Leslie Lipper,Nancy McCarthy,Justin M. McGrath,Daniel R. Smith,Philip K. Thornton,James E. M. Watson,Lewis H. Ziska +17 more
TL;DR: The questions for this chapter are how far climate and its change affect current food production systems and food security and the extent to which they will do so in the future.
Journal ArticleDOI
Implications of climate change for agricultural productivity in the early twenty-first century
Jemma Gornall,Richard Betts,Eleanor J. Burke,Robin T. Clark,Joanne Camp,Kate M. Willett,Andy Wiltshire +6 more
TL;DR: This paper reviews recent literature concerning a wide range of processes through which climate change could potentially impact global-scale agricultural productivity, and presents projections of changes in relevant meteorological, hydrological and plant physiological quantities from a climate model ensemble to illustrate key areas of uncertainty.
References
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What drives food insecurity in southern Africa? a meta-analysis of household economy studies
TL;DR: In this article, meta-analysis is used to synthesize 49 household economy local-level studies that focus on community-level livelihood strategies to identify drivers of food insecurity in southern Africa.
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TL;DR: The magnitude of crop response to elevated CO2 is rather similar across FACE and non-FACE data-sets, as already indicated by several previous comprehensive experimental and modeling analyses, with some differences related to which “ambient” CO2 concentration is used for comparisons.
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The role of climatic mapping in predicting the potential geographical distribution of non-indigenous pests under current and future climates.
Richard H. A. Baker,C.E. Sansford,Claire Jarvis,R.J.C. Cannon,Alan MacLeod,Keith F. A. Walters +5 more
TL;DR: Climatic mapping procedures continue to play a vital role in determining what G.E. Hutchinson defined as the “fundamental niche” in studies of potential distribution, especially for pest species, where natural dispersal is generally less important than transport by man, and species interactions are limited by the impoverished species diversity in agroecosystems.
Book
The Physiology of Crop Yield
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TL;DR: This chapter discusses the development and Phenology of Crop Development, and the role of the environment and management in this process.
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