United States Geological Survey

About: United States Geological Survey is a government organization based out in Reston, Virginia, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Population & Groundwater. The organization has 17899 authors who have published 51097 publications receiving 2479125 citations. The organization is also known as: USGS & US Geological Survey.

Climate change and forests of the future: managing in the face of uncertainty

Abstract: We offer a conceptual framework for managing forested ecosystems under an assumption that future environments will be different from present but that we cannot be certain about the specifics of change. We encourage flexible approaches that promote reversible and incremental steps, and that favor ongoing learning and capacity to modify direction as situations change. We suggest that no single solution fits all future challenges, especially in the context of changing climates, and that the best strategy is to mix different approaches for different situations. Resources managers will be challenged to integrate adaptation strategies (actions that help ecosystems accommodate changes adaptively) and mitigation strategies (actions that enable ecosystems to reduce anthropogenic influences on global climate) into overall plans. Adaptive strategies include resistance options (forestall impacts and protect highly valued resources), resilience options (improve the capacity of ecosystems to return to desired conditions after disturbance), and response options (facilitate transition of ecosystems from current to new conditions). Mitigation strategies include options to sequester carbon and reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions. Priority-setting approaches (e.g., triage), appropriate for rapidly changing conditions and for situations where needs are greater than available capacity to respond, will become increasingly important in the future.

Determinants of woody cover in African savannas

Abstract: Savannas are globally important ecosystems of great significance to human economies. In these biomes, which are characterized by the co-dominance of trees and grasses, woody cover is a chief determinant of ecosystem properties1–3. The availability of resources (water, nutrients) and disturbance regimes (fire, herbivory) are thought to be important in regulating woody cover1,2,4,5, but perceptions differ on which of these are the primary drivers of savanna structure. Here we show, using data from 854 sites across Africa, that maximum woody cover in savannas receiving a mean annual precipitation (MAP) of less than ,650mm is constrained by, and increases linearly with, MAP. These arid and semi-arid savannas may be considered ‘stable' systems in which water constrains woody cover and permits grasses to coexist, while fire, herbivory and soil properties interact to reduce woody cover below the MAP-controlled upper bound. Above a MAP of ,650mm, savannas are ‘unstable' systems in which MAP is sufficient for woody canopy closure, and disturbances (fire, herbivory) are required for the coexistence of trees and grass. These results provide insights into the nature of African savannas and suggest that future changes in precipitation6 may considerably affect their distribution and dynamics.

Landslides caused by earthquakes

Abstract: Data from 40 historical world-wide earthquakes were studied to determine the characteristics, geologic environments, and hazards of landslides caused by seismic events. This sample of 40 events was supplemented with intensity data from several hundred United States earthquakes to study relations between landslide distribution and seismic parameters. Fourteen types of landslides were identified in the earthquakes studied. The most abundant of these were rock falls, disrupted soil slides, and rock slides. The greatest losses of human life were due to rock avalanches, rapid soil flows, and rock falls. Correlations between magnitude (M) and landslide distribution show that the maximum area likely to be affected by landslides in a seismic event increases from approximately 0 at M ≅ 4.0 to 500,000 km2 at M = 9.2. Threshold magnitudes, minimum shaking intensities, and relations between M and distance from epicenter or fault rupture were used to define relative levels of shaking that trigger landslides in susceptible materials. Four types of internally disrupted landslides—rock falls, rock slides, soil falls, and disrupted soil slides—are initiated by the weakest shaking. More coherent, deeper-seated slides require stronger shaking; lateral spreads and flows require shaking that is stronger still; and the strongest shaking is probably required for very highly disrupted rock avalanches and soil avalanches. Each type of earthquake-induced landslide occurs in a particular suite of geologic environments. These range from overhanging slopes of well-indurated rock to slopes of less than 1° underlain by soft, unconsolidated sediments. Materials most susceptible to earthquake-induced landslides include weakly cemented rocks, more-indurated rocks with prominent or pervasive discontinuities, residual and colluvial sand, volcanic soils containing sensitive clay, loess, cemented soils, granular alluvium, granular deltaic deposits, and granular man-made fill. Few earthquake-induced landslides reactivate older landslides; most are in materials that have not previously failed.

GFDL's CM2 global coupled climate models. Part I: Formulation and simulation characteristics

Abstract: The formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled climate models developed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) are described. The models were designed to simulate atmospheric and oceanic climate and variability from the diurnal time scale through multicentury climate change, given our computational constraints. In particular, an important goal was to use the same model for both experimental seasonal to interannual forecasting and the study of multicentury global climate change, and this goal has been achieved. Two versions of the coupled model are described, called CM2.0 and CM2.1. The versions differ primarily in the dynamical core used in the atmospheric component, along with the cloud tuning and some details of the land and ocean components. For both coupled models, the resolution of the land and atmospheric components is 2° latitude × 2.5° longitude; the atmospheric model has 24 vertical levels. The ocean resolution is 1° in latitude and longitude, wi...