Showing papers by "United States Geological Survey published in 2019"

Decline of the North American avifauna

Abstract: Species extinctions have defined the global biodiversity crisis, but extinction begins with loss in abundance of individuals that can result in compositional and functional changes of ecosystems. Using multiple and independent monitoring networks, we report population losses across much of the North American avifauna over 48 years, including once-common species and from most biomes. Integration of range-wide population trajectories and size estimates indicates a net loss approaching 3 billion birds, or 29% of 1970 abundance. A continent-wide weather radar network also reveals a similarly steep decline in biomass passage of migrating birds over a recent 10-year period. This loss of bird abundance signals an urgent need to address threats to avert future avifaunal collapse and associated loss of ecosystem integrity, function, and services.

Twenty-three unsolved problems in hydrology (UPH)–a community perspective

Abstract: This paper is the outcome of a community initiative to identify major unsolved scientific problems in hydrology motivated by a need for stronger harmonisation of research efforts. The procedure involved a public consultation through online media, followed by two workshops through which a large number of potential science questions were collated, prioritised, and synthesised. In spite of the diversity of the participants (230 scientists in total), the process revealed much about community priorities and the state of our science: a preference for continuity in research questions rather than radical departures or redirections from past and current work. Questions remain focused on the process-based understanding of hydrological variability and causality at all space and time scales. Increased attention to environmental change drives a new emphasis on understanding how change propagates across interfaces within the hydrological system and across disciplinary boundaries. In particular, the expansion of the human footprint raises a new set of questions related to human interactions with nature and water cycle feedbacks in the context of complex water management problems. We hope that this reflection and synthesis of the 23 unsolved problems in hydrology will help guide research efforts for some years to come.

Earthquake-Induced Chains of Geologic Hazards: Patterns, Mechanisms, and Impacts

Abstract: Large earthquakes initiate chains of surface processes that last much longer than the brief moments of strong shaking. Most moderate‐ and large‐magnitude earthquakes trigger landslides, ranging from small failures in the soil cover to massive, devastating rock avalanches. Some landslides dam rivers and impound lakes, which can collapse days to centuries later, and flood mountain valleys for hundreds of kilometers downstream. Landslide deposits on slopes can remobilize during heavy rainfall and evolve into debris flows. Cracks and fractures can form and widen on mountain crests and flanks, promoting increased frequency of landslides that lasts for decades. More gradual impacts involve the flushing of excess debris downstream by rivers, which can generate bank erosion and floodplain accretion as well as channel avulsions that affect flooding frequency, settlements, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Ultimately, earthquake sequences and their geomorphic consequences alter mountain landscapes over both human and geologic time scales. Two recent events have attracted intense research into earthquake‐induced landslides and their consequences: the magnitude M 7.6 Chi‐Chi, Taiwan earthquake of 1999, and the M 7.9 Wenchuan, China earthquake of 2008. Using data and insights from these and several other earthquakes, we analyze how such events initiate processes that change mountain landscapes, highlight research gaps, and suggest pathways toward a more complete understanding of the seismic effects on the Earth's surface.

The 2018 rift eruption and summit collapse of Kīlauea Volcano

Abstract: In 2018, Kīlauea Volcano experienced its largest lower East Rift Zone (LERZ) eruption and caldera collapse in at least 200 years. After collapse of the Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō vent on 30 April, magma propagated downrift. Eruptive fissures opened in the LERZ on 3 May, eventually extending ~6.8 km. A 4 May earthquake (M6.9) produced ~5 m of fault slip. Lava erupted at rates exceeding 100 m 3 /s, eventually covering 35.5 km 2 . The summit magma system partially drained, producing minor explosions and near-daily collapses releasing energy equivalent to M4.7-M5.4 earthquakes. Activity declined rapidly on 4 August. Summit collapse and lava flow volume estimates are roughly equivalent—about 0.8 km 3 . Careful historical observation and monitoring of Kīlauea enabled successful forecasting of hazardous events.

The Gemini Planet Imager Exoplanet Survey: Giant Planet and Brown Dwarf Demographics from 10 to 100 au

Abstract: Author(s): Nielsen, EL; De Rosa, RJ; Macintosh, B; Wang, JJ; Ruffio, JB; Chiang, E; Marley, MS; Saumon, D; Savransky, D; Mark Ammons, S; Bailey, VP; Barman, T; Blain, C; Bulger, J; Burrows, A; Chilcote, J; Cotten, T; Czekala, I; Doyon, R; Duchene, G; Esposito, TM; Fabrycky, D; Fitzgerald, MP; Follette, KB; Fortney, JJ; Gerard, BL; Goodsell, SJ; Graham, JR; Greenbaum, AZ; Hibon, P; Hinkley, S; Hirsch, LA; Hom, J; Hung, LW; Ilene Dawson, R; Ingraham, P; Kalas, P; Konopacky, Q; Larkin, JE; Lee, EJ; Lin, JW; Maire, J; Marchis, F; Marois, C; Metchev, S; Millar-Blanchaer, MA; Morzinski, KM; Oppenheimer, R; Palmer, D; Patience, J; Perrin, M; Poyneer, L; Pueyo, L; Rafikov, RR; Rajan, A; Rameau, J; Rantakyro, FT; Ren, B; Schneider, AC; Sivaramakrishnan, A; Song, I; Soummer, R; Tallis, M; Thomas, S; Ward-Duong, K; Wolff, S | Abstract: We present a statistical analysis of the first 300 stars observed by the Gemini Planet Imager Exoplanet Survey. This subsample includes six detected planets and three brown dwarfs; from these detections and our contrast curves we infer the underlying distributions of substellar companions with respect to their mass, semimajor axis, and host stellar mass. We uncover a strong correlation between planet occurrence rate and host star mass, with stars M ∗ g1.5 M o more likely to host planets with masses between 2 and 13M Jup and semimajor axes of 3-100 au at 99.92% confidence. We fit a double power-law model in planet mass (m) and semimajor axis (a) for planet populations around high-mass stars (M ∗ g1.5 M o) of the form , finding α = -2.4 +0.8 and β = -2.0 +0.5, and an integrated occurrence rate of % between 5-13M Jup and 10-100 au. A significantly lower occurrence rate is obtained for brown dwarfs around all stars, with % of stars hosting a brown dwarf companion between 13-80M Jup and 10-100 au. Brown dwarfs also appear to be distributed differently in mass and semimajor axis compared to giant planets; whereas giant planets follow a bottom-heavy mass distribution and favor smaller semimajor axes, brown dwarfs exhibit just the opposite behaviors. Comparing to studies of short-period giant planets from the radial velocity method, our results are consistent with a peak in occurrence of giant planets between ∼1 and 10 au. We discuss how these trends, including the preference of giant planets for high-mass host stars, point to formation of giant planets by core/pebble accretion, and formation of brown dwarfs by gravitational instability.

Fungicides: An overlooked pesticide class?

Abstract: Fungicides are indispensable to global food security and their use is forecasted to intensify. Fungicides can reach aquatic ecosystems and occur in surface water bodies in agricultural catchments throughout the entire growing season due to their frequent, prophylactic application. However, in comparison to herbicides and insecticides, the exposure to and effects of fungicides have received less attention. We provide an overview of the risk of fungicides to aquatic ecosystems covering fungicide exposure (i.e., environmental fate, exposure modeling, and mitigation measures) as well as direct and indirect effects of fungicides on microorganisms, macrophytes, invertebrates, and vertebrates. We show that fungicides occur widely in aquatic systems, that the accuracy of predicted environmental concentrations is debatable, and that fungicide exposure can be effectively mitigated. We additionally demonstrate that fungicides can be highly toxic to a broad range of organisms and can pose a risk to aquatic biota. Finally, we outline central research gaps that currently challenge our ability to predict fungicide exposure and effects, promising research avenues, and shortcomings of the current environmental risk assessment for fungicides.

The State of the World's Mangrove Forests: Past, Present, and Future

Abstract: Intertidal mangrove forests are a dynamic ecosystem experiencing rapid changes in extent and habitat quality over geological history, today and into the future. Climate and sea level have drastical...

Widespread loss of lake ice around the Northern Hemisphere in a warming world

Abstract: Ice provides a range of ecosystem services—including fish harvest1, cultural traditions2, transportation3, recreation4 and regulation of the hydrological cycle5—to more than half of the world’s 117 million lakes. One of the earliest observed impacts of climatic warming has been the loss of freshwater ice6, with corresponding climatic and ecological consequences7. However, while trends in ice cover phenology have been widely documented2,6,8,9, a comprehensive large-scale assessment of lake ice loss is absent. Here, using observations from 513 lakes around the Northern Hemisphere, we identify lakes vulnerable to ice-free winters. Our analyses reveal the importance of air temperature, lake depth, elevation and shoreline complexity in governing ice cover. We estimate that 14,800 lakes currently experience intermittent winter ice cover, increasing to 35,300 and 230,400 at 2 and 8 °C, respectively, and impacting up to 394 and 656 million people. Our study illustrates that an extensive loss of lake ice will occur within the next generation, stressing the importance of climate mitigation strategies to preserve ecosystem structure and function, as well as local winter cultural heritage. Up to 35,000 lakes in the Northern Hemisphere may be at risk of intermittent winter ice cover at 2 °C warming, reveals an observation-based study. This would affect 394 million people reliant on lake ice for ecosystem services.

Hillslope Hydrology in Global Change Research and Earth System Modeling

Abstract: Earth System Models (ESMs) are essential tools for understanding and predicting global change, but they cannot explicitly resolve hillslope‐scale terrain structures that fundamentally organize water, energy, and biogeochemical stores and fluxes at subgrid scales. Here we bring together hydrologists, Critical Zone scientists, and ESM developers, to explore how hillslope structures may modulate ESM grid‐level water, energy, and biogeochemical fluxes. In contrast to the one‐dimensional (1‐D), 2‐ to 3‐m deep, and free‐draining soil hydrology in most ESM land models, we hypothesize that 3‐D, lateral ridge‐to‐valley flow through shallow and deep paths and insolation contrasts between sunny and shady slopes are the top two globally quantifiable organizers of water and energy (and vegetation) within an ESM grid cell. We hypothesize that these two processes are likely to impact ESM predictions where (and when) water and/or energy are limiting. We further hypothesize that, if implemented in ESM land models, these processes will increase simulated continental water storage and residence time, buffering terrestrial ecosystems against seasonal and interannual droughts. We explore efficient ways to capture these mechanisms in ESMs and identify critical knowledge gaps preventing us from scaling up hillslope to global processes. One such gap is our extremely limited knowledge of the subsurface, where water is stored (supporting vegetation) and released to stream baseflow (supporting aquatic ecosystems). We conclude with a set of organizing hypotheses and a call for global syntheses activities and model experiments to assess the impact of hillslope hydrology on global change predictions.

Structure and Performance of GFDL's CM4.0 Climate Model

Abstract: We describe the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's CM4.0 physical climate model, with emphasis on those aspects that may be of particular importance to users of this model and its simulations. The model is built with the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/land model and OM4.0 ocean model. Topics include the rationale for key choices made in the model formulation, the stability as well as drift of the preindustrial control simulation, and comparison of key aspects of the historical simulations with observations from recent decades. Notable achievements include the relatively small biases in seasonal spatial patterns of top-of-atmosphere fluxes, surface temperature, and precipitation; reduced double Intertropical Convergence Zone bias; dramatically improved representation of ocean boundary currents; a high-quality simulation of climatological Arctic sea ice extent and its recent decline; and excellent simulation of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation spectrum and structure. Areas of concern include inadequate deep convection in the Nordic Seas; an inaccurate Antarctic sea ice simulation; precipitation and wind composites still affected by the equatorial cold tongue bias; muted variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; strong 100 year quasiperiodicity in Southern Ocean ventilation; and a lack of historical warming before 1990 and too rapid warming thereafter due to high climate sensitivity and strong aerosol forcing, in contrast to the observational record. Overall, CM4.0 scores very well in its fidelity against observations compared to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 generation in terms of both mean state and modes of variability and should prove a valuable new addition for analysis across a broad array of applications. Plain Language Summary The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration participates along with a number of model centers around the world in constructing state-of-the-art climate models for use in studies for climate change and prediction. GFDL's latest multipurpose atmosphere-ocean coupled climate model, CM4.0, is described here. It consists of GFDL's latest atmosphere and land models at about 100 km horizontal resolution and ocean and sea ice models at roughly 25 km horizontal resolution. A handful of standard experiments have been conducted with CM4.0 for participation in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, an archive of climate model results utilized by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the climate research community more generally. The model results have been extensively evaluated against observations. This paper makes the case that CM4.0 ranks high among state-of-the-art coupled climate models by many measures of bias in the simulated climatology and in its ability to capture modes of climate variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Madden-Julian Oscillation. The paper also discusses some potential weaknesses, including unrealistically large internal variability in the Southern Ocean and insufficient warming before 1990 in the simulation of the twentieth century. RESEARCH ARTICLE 10.1029/2019MS001829 Special Section: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CMIP6 Models Key Points: • A team at GFDL has developed a new model of the physical climate system referred to as CM4.0 • Strengths of model include ENSO simulation and small biases in TOA fluxes, precipitation, Arctic sea ice extent, and sea surface temperature • Problematic aspects include large variability in Southern Ocean and historical simulation with little warming prior to 1990 Correspondence to: H. Guo, huan.guo@noaa.gov Citation: Held, I. M., Guo, H., Adcroft, A., Dunne, J. P., Horowitz, L. W., Krasting, J., et al. (2019). Structure and performance of GFDL's CM4.0 climate model. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 11. https:// h ttps://doi.org/10.1029/ 2019MS001829 Received 25 JUL 2019 Accepted 14 OCT 2019 Accepted article online 30 OCT 2019 ©2019. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Taxonomy of the order Mononegavirales: update 2019.

Abstract: In February 2019, following the annual taxon ratification vote, the order Mononegavirales was amended by the addition of four new subfamilies and 12 new genera and the creation of 28 novel species. This article presents the updated taxonomy of the order Mononegavirales as now accepted by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV).

Dynamic flood modeling essential to assess the coastal impacts of climate change.

Abstract: Coastal inundation due to sea level rise (SLR) is projected to displace hundreds of millions of people worldwide over the next century, creating significant economic, humanitarian, and national-security challenges. However, the majority of previous efforts to characterize potential coastal impacts of climate change have focused primarily on long-term SLR with a static tide level, and have not comprehensively accounted for dynamic physical drivers such as tidal non-linearity, storms, short-term climate variability, erosion response and consequent flooding responses. Here we present a dynamic modeling approach that estimates climate-driven changes in flood-hazard exposure by integrating the effects of SLR, tides, waves, storms, and coastal change (i.e. beach erosion and cliff retreat). We show that for California, USA, the world’s 5th largest economy, over $150 billion of property equating to more than 6% of the state’s GDP and 600,000 people could be impacted by dynamic flooding by 2100; a three-fold increase in exposed population than if only SLR and a static coastline are considered. The potential for underestimating societal exposure to coastal flooding is greater for smaller SLR scenarios, up to a seven-fold increase in exposed population and economic interests when considering storm conditions in addition to SLR. These results highlight the importance of including climate-change driven dynamic coastal processes and impacts in both short-term hazard mitigation and long-term adaptation planning.

The NASA Roadmap to Ocean Worlds

Abstract: In this article, we summarize the work of the NASA Outer Planets Assessment Group (OPAG) Roadmaps to Ocean Worlds (ROW) group. The aim of this group is to assemble the scientific framework that will guide the exploration of ocean worlds, and to identify and prioritize science objectives for ocean worlds over the next several decades. The overarching goal of an Ocean Worlds exploration program as defined by ROW is to “identify ocean worlds, characterize their oceans, evaluate their habitability, search for life, and ultimately understand any life we find.” The ROW team supports the creation of an exploration program that studies the full spectrum of ocean worlds, that is, not just the exploration of known ocean worlds such as Europa but candidate ocean worlds such as Triton as well. The ROW team finds that the confirmed ocean worlds Enceladus, Titan, and Europa are the highest priority bodies to target in the near term to address ROW goals. Triton is the highest priority candidate ocean world to target in the near term. A major finding of this study is that, to map out a coherent Ocean Worlds Program, significant input is required from studies here on Earth; rigorous Research and Analysis studies are called for to enable some future ocean worlds missions to be thoughtfully planned and undertaken. A second finding is that progress needs to be made in the area of collaborations between Earth ocean scientists and extraterrestrial ocean scientists.

Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region

Abstract: Recent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter1–3, greatly enhances microbial decomposition of soil organic matter and subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO2)4. However, the amount of CO2 released in winter is not known and has not been well represented by ecosystem models or empirically based estimates5,6. Here we synthesize regional in situ observations of CO2 flux from Arctic and boreal soils to assess current and future winter carbon losses from the northern permafrost domain. We estimate a contemporary loss of 1,662 TgC per year from the permafrost region during the winter season (October–April). This loss is greater than the average growing season carbon uptake for this region estimated from process models (−1,032 TgC per year). Extending model predictions to warmer conditions up to 2100 indicates that winter CO2 emissions will increase 17% under a moderate mitigation scenario—Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5—and 41% under business-as-usual emissions scenario—Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Our results provide a baseline for winter CO2 emissions from northern terrestrial regions and indicate that enhanced soil CO2 loss due to winter warming may offset growing season carbon uptake under future climatic conditions. Winter warming in the Arctic will increase the CO2 flux from soils. A pan-Arctic analysis shows a current loss of 1,662 TgC per year over the winter, exceeding estimated carbon uptake in the growing season; projections suggest a 17% increase under RCP 4.5 and a 41% increase under RCP 8.5 by 2100.

Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections

Abstract: Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal climate adaptation planning. However, the use of single-method ensembles and variations arising from different methodologies has resulted in unquantified uncertainty amongst existing global wave climate projections. Here, assessing the first coherent, community-driven, multi-method ensemble of global wave climate projections, we demonstrate widespread ocean regions with robust changes in annual mean significant wave height and mean wave period of 5–15% and shifts in mean wave direction of 5–15°, under a high-emission scenario. Approximately 50% of the world’s coastline is at risk from wave climate change, with ~40% revealing robust changes in at least two variables. Furthermore, we find that uncertainty in current projections is dominated by climate model-driven uncertainty, and that single-method modelling studies are unable to capture up to ~50% of the total associated uncertainty.

Vertical Distribution of Microplastics in the Water Column and Surficial Sediment from the Milwaukee River Basin to Lake Michigan

Abstract: Microplastic contamination was studied along a freshwater continuum from inland streams to the Milwaukee River estuary to Lake Michigan and vertically from the water surface, water subsurface, and sediment. Microplastics were detected in all 96 water samples and 9 sediment samples collected. Results indicated a gradient of polymer presence with depth: low-density particles decreased from the water surface to the subsurface to sediment, and high-density particles had the opposite result. Polymer identification results indicated that water surface and subsurface samples were dominated by low-density polypropylene particles, and sediment samples were dominated by more dense polyethylene terephthalate particles. Of the five particle-type categories (fragments, films, foams, pellets/beads, and fibers/lines), fibers/lines were the most common particle-type and were present in every water and sediment sample collected. Fibers represented 45% of all particles in water samples and were distributed vertically throughout the water column regardless of density. Sediment samples were dominated by black foams (66%, identified as styrene-butadiene rubber) and to a lesser extent fibers/lines (29%) with approximately 89% of all of the sediment particles coming from polymers with densities greater than 1.1 g cm-3. Results demonstrated that polymer density influenced partitioning between the water surface and subsurface and the underlying surficial sediment and the common practice of sampling only the water surface can result in substantial bias, especially in estuarine, harbor, and lake locations where water surface concentrations tend to overestimate mean water column concentrations.

Circuit-theory applications to connectivity science and conservation.

Abstract: Conservation practitioners have long recognized ecological connectivity as a global priority for preserving biodiversity and ecosystem function. In the early years of conservation science, ecologists extended principles of island biogeography to assess connectivity based on source patch proximity and other metrics derived from binary maps of habitat. From 2006 to 2008, the late Brad McRae introduced circuit theory as an alternative approach to model gene flow and the dispersal or movement routes of organisms. He posited concepts and metrics from electrical circuit theory as a robust way to quantify movement across multiple possible paths in a landscape, not just a single least-cost path or corridor. Circuit theory offers many theoretical, conceptual, and practical linkages to conservation science. We reviewed 459 recent studies citing circuit theory or the open-source software Circuitscape. We focused on applications of circuit theory to the science and practice of connectivity conservation, including topics in landscape and population genetics, movement and dispersal paths of organisms, anthropogenic barriers to connectivity, fire behavior, water flow, and ecosystem services. Circuit theory is likely to have an effect on conservation science and practitioners through improved insights into landscape dynamics, animal movement, and habitat-use studies and through the development of new software tools for data analysis and visualization. The influence of circuit theory on conservation comes from the theoretical basis and elegance of the approach and the powerful collaborations and active user community that have emerged. Circuit theory provides a springboard for ecological understanding and will remain an important conservation tool for researchers and practitioners around the globe.

Climate Change, Coral Loss, and the Curious Case of the Parrotfish Paradigm: Why Don't Marine Protected Areas Improve Reef Resilience?

Abstract: Scientists have advocated for local interventions, such as creating marine protected areas and implementing fishery restrictions, as ways to mitigate local stressors to limit the effects of climate...

Physics Guided RNNs for Modeling Dynamical Systems: A Case Study in Simulating Lake Temperature Profiles

Abstract: This paper proposes a physics-guided recurrent neural network model (PGRNN) that combines RNNs and physics-based models to leverage their complementary strengths and improve the modeling of physical processes. Specifically, we show that a PGRNN can improve prediction accuracy over that of physical models, while generating outputs consistent with physical laws, and achieving good generalizability. Standard RNNs, even when producing superior prediction accuracy, often produce physically inconsistent results and lack generalizability. We further enhance this approach by using a pre-training method that leverages the simulated data from a physics-based model to address the scarcity of observed data. The PGRNN has the flexibility to incorporate additional physical constraints and we incorporate a density-depth relationship. Both enhancements further improve PGRNN performance. Although we present and evaluate this methodology in the context of modeling the dynamics of temperature in lakes, it is applicable more widely to a range of scientific and engineering disciplines where mechanistic (also known as process-based) models are used, e.g., power engineering, climate science, materials science, computational chemistry, and biomedicine.

Process-Guided Deep Learning Predictions of Lake Water Temperature

Abstract: Department of the Interior Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center; Midwest Glacial Lakes Fish Habitat Partnership grant through FWS; NSF Expedition in Computing Grant [1029711]; NSFNational Science Foundation (NSF) [EAR-PF-1725386]; Digital Technology Center at the University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota System; Department of the Interior North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center; North Temperate Lakes Long-Term Ecological Research [NSF DEB-1440297]; Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network [NSF 1702991]

ICTV Virus Taxonomy Profile: Paramyxoviridae.

Abstract: The family Paramyxoviridae consists of large enveloped RNA viruses infecting mammals, birds, reptiles and fish. Many paramyxoviruses are host-specific and several, such as measles virus, mumps virus, Nipah virus, Hendra virus and several parainfluenza viruses, are pathogenic for humans. The transmission of paramyxoviruses is horizontal, mainly through airborne routes; no vectors are known. This is a summary of the current International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV) Report on the family Paramyxoviridae. which is available at ictv.global/report/paramyxoviridae.

Climate, environment, and disturbance history govern resilience of Western North American forests

Abstract: Resilience and resistance concepts have broad application to ecology and society. Resilience is an emergent property that reflects the amount of disruption a system can withstand before its structure or organization uncharacteristically shift. Resistance is a component of resilience. Before the advent of intensive forest management and fire suppression, western North American forests exhibited a naturally occurring resilience to wildfires and other disturbances. Using evidence from ten ecoregions, spanning forests from Canada to Mexico, we review the properties of these forests that reinforced those qualities. We show examples of multi-level landscape resilience, of feedbacks within and among levels, and how conditions have changed under climatic and management influences. We highlight geographic similarities and differences in the structure and organization of historical landscapes, their forest types, and in the conditions that have changed resilience and resistance to abrupt or large-scale disruptions. We discuss the regional climates’ role in episodically or abruptly reorganizing plant and animal biogeography, and forest resilience and resistance to disturbances. We give clear examples of these changes and suggest that managing for resilient forests is a construct that is strongly dependent on scale and social values. It involves human community adaptations that work with the ecosystems they depend on and the processes that shape them. It entails actively managing factors and exploiting mechanisms that drive dynamics at each level as means of adapting landscapes, species, and human communities to climate change, and maintaining core ecosystem functions, processes, and services. Finally, it compels us to prioritize management that incorporates ongoing disturbances and anticipated effects of climatic changes, to support dynamically shifting patchworks of forest and nonforest. Doing so will make these shifting forest conditions and wildfire regimes more gradual and less disruptive to individuals and society.

Wildfires as an ecosystem service

Abstract: Wildfires are often perceived as destructive disturbances, but we propose that when integrating evolutionary and socioecological factors, fires in most ecosystems can be understood as natural processes that provide a variety of benefits to humankind. Wildfires generate open habitats that enable the evolution of a diversity of shade‐intolerant plants and animals that have long benefited humans. There are many provisioning, regulating, and cultural services that people obtain from wildfires, and prescribed fires and wildfire management are tools for mimicking the ancestral role of wildfires in an increasingly populated world.

Mountain lakes: Eyes on global environmental change

Abstract: Mountain lakes are often situated in protected natural areas, a feature that leads to their role as sentinels of global environmental change. Despite variations in latitude, mountain lakes share many features, including their location in catchments with steep topographic gradients, cold temperatures, high incident solar and ultraviolet radiation (UVR), and prolonged ice and snow cover. These characteristics, in turn, affect mountain lake ecosystem structure, diversity, and productivity. The lakes themselves are mostly small, and up until recently, have been characterized as oligotrophic. This paper provides a review and update of the growing body of research that shows that sediments in remote mountain lakes archive regional and global environmental changes, including those linked to climate change, altered biogeochemical cycles, and changes in dust composition and deposition, atmospheric fertilization, and biological manipulations. These archives provide an important record of global environmental change that pre-dates typical monitoring windows. Paleolimnological research at strategically selected lakes has increased our knowledge of interactions among multiple stressors and their synergistic effects on lake systems. Lakes from transects across steep climate (i.e., temperature and effective moisture) gradients in mountain regions show how environmental change alters lakes in close proximity, but at differing climate starting points. Such research in particular highlights the impacts of melting glaciers on mountain lakes. The addition of new proxies, including DNA-based techniques and advanced stable isotopic analyses, provides a gateway to addressing novel research questions about global environmental change. Recent advances in remote sensing and continuous, high-frequency, limnological measurements will improve spatial and temporal resolution and help to add records to spatial gaps including tropical and southern latitudes. Mountain lake records provide a unique opportunity for global scale assessments that provide knowledge necessary to protect the Earth system.