Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon dates
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TLDR
An overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4) are given.Abstract:
If radiocarbon measurements are to be used at all for chronological purposes, we have to use statistical methods for calibration. The most widely used method of calibration can be seen as a simple application of Bayesian statistics, which uses both the information from the new measurement and information from the 14C calibration curve. In most dating applications, however, we have larger numbers of 14C measurements and we wish to relate those to events in the past. Bayesian statistics provides a coherent framework in which such analysis can be performed and is becoming a core element in many 14C dating projects. This article gives an overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4). Many such models can be put together, in a modular fashion, from simple elements, with defined constraints and groupings. In other cases, the commonly used "uniform phase" models might not be appropriate, and ramped, exponential, or normal distributions of events might be more useful. When considering analyses of these kinds, it is useful to be able run simulations on synthetic data. Methods for performing such tests are discussed here along with other methods of diagnosing possible problems with statistical models of this kind.read more
Citations
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The political collapse of Chichén Itzá in climatic and cultural context
Julie A. Hoggarth,Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach,Brendan J. Culleton,Claire E. Ebert,Marilyn A. Masson,Douglas J. Kennett +5 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors employed Bayesian radiocarbon models in conjunction with calendar dates on carved monuments and climate proxies to evaluate the rise and fall of Maya political centers and serves as an example of the impact of climate change on rainfall-dependent societies in Mesoamerica.
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Diet of the prehistoric population of Rapa Nui (Easter Island, Chile) shows environmental adaptation and resilience.
Catrine L. Jarman,Thomas Larsen,Terry L. Hunt,Carl P. Lipo,Reidar Solsvik,Natalie J. Wallsgrove,Cassie A. Ka'apu-Lyons,Hilary G. Close,Brian N. Popp +8 more
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The Transition to Agriculture at Dadiwan, People’s Republic of China
Robert L. Bettinger,Loukas Barton,Christopher Morgan,Fahu Chen,Hui Wang,Thomas P. Guilderson,Duxue Ji,Dongju Zhang +7 more
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Neutron activation analysis of 12,900-year-old stone artifacts confirms 450–510+ km Clovis tool-stone acquisition at Paleo Crossing (33ME274), northeast Ohio, U.S.A.
Matthew T. Boulanger,Briggs Buchanan,Michael J. O'Brien,Brian G. Redmond,Michael D. Glascock,Metin I. Eren,Metin I. Eren +6 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present geochemical evidence acquired from neutron activation analysis (NAA) of stone flaking debris from the Paleo Crossing site, a 12,900-year-old Clovis camp in northeastern Ohio.
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The temporality of shell-bearing landscapes at Crystal River, Florida
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