Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon dates
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An overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4) are given.Abstract:
If radiocarbon measurements are to be used at all for chronological purposes, we have to use statistical methods for calibration. The most widely used method of calibration can be seen as a simple application of Bayesian statistics, which uses both the information from the new measurement and information from the 14C calibration curve. In most dating applications, however, we have larger numbers of 14C measurements and we wish to relate those to events in the past. Bayesian statistics provides a coherent framework in which such analysis can be performed and is becoming a core element in many 14C dating projects. This article gives an overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4). Many such models can be put together, in a modular fashion, from simple elements, with defined constraints and groupings. In other cases, the commonly used "uniform phase" models might not be appropriate, and ramped, exponential, or normal distributions of events might be more useful. When considering analyses of these kinds, it is useful to be able run simulations on synthetic data. Methods for performing such tests are discussed here along with other methods of diagnosing possible problems with statistical models of this kind.read more
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Chronology of the Mesolithic occupation of the Muge valley, central Portugal: The case of Cabeço da Amoreira
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors presented the first AMS results of this project, with a total of close to 30 new dates, based on Bayesian radiocarbon dating modelling, providing a complete and detailed new perspective of the chronology of one of the most important shellmiddens (Cabeco da Amoreira) in Muge as well as the direct relation to the time of settlement of Mesolithic complex hunter-gatherers in the region and the following occupation with the reuse of the shell middens.
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Mid and late Holocene land-use changes in the Ötztal Alps, territory of the Neolithic Iceman "Ötzi"
TL;DR: In this article, an extensive archaeological survey and pollen analyses in the high altitudes of the Neolithic Iceman's territory were combined to elucidate the palaeo-environmental and past cultural implications that triggered the onset and development of seasonal transhumance and alpine summer farming in this region.
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Early Holocene (8.6 ka) rock avalanche deposits, Obernberg valley (Eastern Alps): Landform interpretation and kinematics of rapid mass movement
Marc Ostermann,Diethard Sanders,Susan Ivy-Ochs,Susan Ivy-Ochs,Vasily Alfimov,Manfred Rockenschaub,A. Römer +6 more
TL;DR: In the Obernberg valley, the Eastern Alps, landforms recently interpreted as moraines are re-interpreted as rock avalanche deposits, and the event age of mass-wasting precludes both runout over glacial ice and subsequent glacial overprint.
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Validating a Swedish varve chronology using radiocarbon, palaeomagnetic secular variation, lead pollution history and statistical correlation
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors use statistical correlation of palaeomagnetic secular variation (PSV) curves from a varved Holocene lake sediment sequence in west central Sweden (Lake Kalksjon) against those of a Fennoscandian master stack (FENNOSTACK) to correct for an apparent error in the varve chronology.
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The impact of Bayesian chronologies on the British Iron Age
TL;DR: The authors explored the impact of Bayesian modelling on British Iron Age studies and highlighted potential pitfalls and issues that must be considered when dating the period, illustrates some major successes and looks to the future.
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