Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon dates
Reads0
Chats0
TLDR
An overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4) are given.Abstract:
If radiocarbon measurements are to be used at all for chronological purposes, we have to use statistical methods for calibration. The most widely used method of calibration can be seen as a simple application of Bayesian statistics, which uses both the information from the new measurement and information from the 14C calibration curve. In most dating applications, however, we have larger numbers of 14C measurements and we wish to relate those to events in the past. Bayesian statistics provides a coherent framework in which such analysis can be performed and is becoming a core element in many 14C dating projects. This article gives an overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4). Many such models can be put together, in a modular fashion, from simple elements, with defined constraints and groupings. In other cases, the commonly used "uniform phase" models might not be appropriate, and ramped, exponential, or normal distributions of events might be more useful. When considering analyses of these kinds, it is useful to be able run simulations on synthetic data. Methods for performing such tests are discussed here along with other methods of diagnosing possible problems with statistical models of this kind.read more
Citations
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
Stratigraphy and age of colluvial deposits indicating Late Holocene soil erosion in northeastern Germany.
Christoph Kappler,Knut Kaiser,Phillipp Tanski,Friederike Klos,Alexander Fülling,Almut Mrotzek,Michael Sommer,Oliver Bens +7 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the sedimentary characteristics, chronology, magnitude, and causes of past soil erosion dynamics of an agriculturally intensively used glacial lowland landscape were investigated.
Journal ArticleDOI
Comparison of radiocarbon and OSL dating methods for a Late Quaternary sediment core from Lake Ulaan, Mongolia
TL;DR: In this paper, both radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating methods were applied to test their suitability for establishing a chronology of arid-zone lacustrine sediments using a 5.88m-long core drilled from Lake Ulaan, southern Mongolia.
Journal ArticleDOI
Stable carbon, nitrogen and sulphur isotope analysis of permafrost preserved human hair from rescue excavations (2009, 2010) at the precontact site of Nunalleq, Alaska
TL;DR: In this article, stable carbon, nitrogen and sulphur isotope data from non-mortuary human hair excavated from Nunalleq (c. 1300-1750-CE) is presented.
Journal ArticleDOI
Last Glacial droughts and fire regimes in the central Mexican highlands
Esperanza Torres-Rodríguez,Socorro Lozano-García,Priyadarsi D. Roy,Beatriz Ortega,Laura E. Beramendi-Orosco,Alexander Correa-Metrio,Margarita Caballero +6 more
TL;DR: The authors used high-resolution charcoal particle accumulation, inorganic carbon precipitation and magnetic susceptibility data from Lake Chalco, located in high-altitude tropical central Mexico, to assess the fire regimes and drought periods between ∼85 and 10.8k cal a BP.
Journal ArticleDOI
Sediment accumulation, stratigraphic order, and the extent of time-averaging in lagoonal sediments: a comparison of 210Pb and 14C/amino acid racemization chronologies
TL;DR: In this paper, carbon-14 calibrated amino acid racemization (14C/AAR) data and lead-210 (210Pb) data are used to examine sediment accumulation rates, stratigraphic order, and the extent of time-averaging in sediments collected from the One Tree Reef lagoon (southern Great Barrier Reef, Australia).
References
More filters
BookDOI
Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice
TL;DR: The Markov Chain Monte Carlo Implementation Results Summary and Discussion MEDICAL MONITORING Introduction Modelling Medical Monitoring Computing Posterior Distributions Forecasting Model Criticism Illustrative Application Discussion MCMC for NONLINEAR HIERARCHICAL MODELS.
Journal ArticleDOI
Extended 14C Data Base and Revised Calib 3.0 14C Age Calibration Program
Minze Stuiver,Paula J. Reimer +1 more
TL;DR: The age calibration program, CALIB (Stuiver & Reimer 1986), first made available in 1986 and subsequently modified in 1987 (revision 2.0 and 2.1), has been amended anew as mentioned in this paper.
Journal ArticleDOI
Sampling-Based Approaches to Calculating Marginal Densities
TL;DR: In this paper, three sampling-based approaches, namely stochastic substitution, the Gibbs sampler, and the sampling-importance-resampling algorithm, are compared and contrasted in relation to various joint probability structures frequently encountered in applications.
Journal Article
Sampling-based approaches to calculating marginal densities
TL;DR: Stochastic substitution, the Gibbs sampler, and the sampling-importance-resampling algorithm can be viewed as three alternative sampling- (or Monte Carlo-) based approaches to the calculation of numerical estimates of marginal probability distributions.
Journal ArticleDOI
Characterizing aquatic dissolved organic matter.
Minze Stuiver,Henry Polach +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, standards for reporting C-14 age determinations are discussed, and the statistical uncertainty (plus or minus one standard deviation) expresses counting errors, inaccuracies in voltage, pressure, temperature, dilution, and should include errors in C-13 ratios.
Related Papers (5)
IntCal13 and Marine13 radiocarbon age calibration curves 0-50,000 years cal BP
Paula J. Reimer,Edouard Bard,Alex Bayliss,J. Warren Beck,Paula G Blackwell,Christopher Bronk Ramsey,Caitlin E. Buck,Hai Cheng,R. Lawrence Edwards,Michael Friedrich,Pieter Meiert Grootes,Thomas P. Guilderson,Haflidi Haflidason,Irka Hajdas,Christine Hatté,Timothy J Heaton,Dirk L. Hoffmann,Alan G. Hogg,Konrad A Hughen,K Felix Kaiser,Bernd Kromer,Sturt W. Manning,Mu Niu,Ron W Reimer,David Richards,E. Marian Scott,John Southon,Richard A. Staff,Christian Turney,Johannes van der Plicht +29 more
IntCal13とMarine13放射性炭素年代較正曲線0-50,000年cal BP
Reimer Paula J,Bard Edouard,Bayliss Alex,Beck J Warren,Blackwell Paul G,Ramsey Christopher Bronk,Buck Caitlin E,Cheng Hai,Edwards R Lawrence,Friedrich Michael,Grootes Pieter M,Guilderson Thomas P,Haflidason Haflidi,Hajdas Irka,Hatte Christine,Heaton Timothy J,L Hoffmann Dirk,Hogg Alan G,Hughen Konrad A,Kaiser K Felix,Kromer Bernd,Manning Sturt W,Niu Mu,Reimer Ron W,Richards David A,Scott E Marian,Southon John R,Staff Richard A,Turney Christian S M,Van Der Plicht Johannes +29 more