Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon dates
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An overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4) are given.Abstract:
If radiocarbon measurements are to be used at all for chronological purposes, we have to use statistical methods for calibration. The most widely used method of calibration can be seen as a simple application of Bayesian statistics, which uses both the information from the new measurement and information from the 14C calibration curve. In most dating applications, however, we have larger numbers of 14C measurements and we wish to relate those to events in the past. Bayesian statistics provides a coherent framework in which such analysis can be performed and is becoming a core element in many 14C dating projects. This article gives an overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4). Many such models can be put together, in a modular fashion, from simple elements, with defined constraints and groupings. In other cases, the commonly used "uniform phase" models might not be appropriate, and ramped, exponential, or normal distributions of events might be more useful. When considering analyses of these kinds, it is useful to be able run simulations on synthetic data. Methods for performing such tests are discussed here along with other methods of diagnosing possible problems with statistical models of this kind.read more
Citations
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The impact of high tephra loading on late-Holocene carbon accumulation and vegetation succession in peatland communities
Paul D.M. Hughes,Gunnar Mallon,Antony G. Brown,H.J. Essex,J. D. Stanford,J. D. Stanford,Stefan Hotes +6 more
TL;DR: The authors used a 3000-year peatland record from northern Japan to examine the interactions between carbon accumulation, vegetation community succession and volcanic ash deposition, showing that moderate to high tephra loading can shift peatlands plant communities from Sphagnum to monocotyledon domination, which is associated with increased peat humification and reduced carbon accumulation.
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From pristine forests to high‐altitude pastures: an ecological approach to prehistoric human impact on vegetation and landscapes in the western Italian Alps
Roberta Pini,Cesare Ravazzi,Luca Raiteri,Antonio Guerreschi,Lorenzo Castellano,Roberto Comolli +5 more
TL;DR: In this article, the origin and development of the oldest prehistoric pasture in the timberline ecotone known so far in the Alps and its relation to anthropogenic pressure and natural climate change were investigated.
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The evolutionary and phylogeographic history of woolly mammoths: a comprehensive mitogenomic analysis
Dan Chang,Michael Knapp,Jacob Enk,Sebastian Lippold,Martin Kircher,Adrian M. Lister,Ross D. E. MacPhee,Chris Widga,Paul Czechowski,Robert S. Sommer,Emily Hodges,Nikolaus Stümpel,Ian Barnes,Love Dalén,Anatoly P. Derevianko,Mietje Germonpré,Alexandra Hillebrand-Voiculescu,Silviu Constantin,Tatyana Kuznetsova,Dick Mol,Thomas Rathgeber,Wilfried Rosendahl,Alexey N. Tikhonov,Eske Willerslev,Greg Hannon,Carles Lalueza-Fox,Ulrich Joger,Hendrik N. Poinar,Michael Hofreiter,Beth Shapiro +29 more
TL;DR: The genetic results and the pattern of morphological variation in time and space suggest that male-mediated gene flow, rather than large-scale dispersals, was important in the Pleistocene evolutionary history of mammoths.
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Paper II – Dirt, dates and DNA: OSL and radiocarbon chronologies of perennially frozen sediments in Siberia, and their implications for sedimentary ancient DNA studies
Lee J. Arnold,Richard G. Roberts,Ross D. E. MacPhee,James Haile,Fiona Brock,Per Möller,Duane G. Froese,Alexei Tikhonov,Allan R. Chivas,M. Thomas P. Gilbert,Eske Willerslev +10 more
TL;DR: In this paper, Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and radiocarbon (C-14) dating are used to constrain the ages of both the inorganic and organic fractions of perennially frozen deposits from which sedaDNA of extinct and extant species have been recovered.
Journal ArticleDOI
Tephrochronology of core PRAD 1-2 from the Adriatic Sea: insights into Italian explosive volcanism for the period 200–80 ka
A. J. Bourne,Paul G. Albert,Ian Matthews,Fabio Trincardi,Sabine Wulf,Alessandra Asioli,Simon Blockley,Jörg Keller,J. John Lowe +8 more
TL;DR: In this paper, a total of 11 discrete tephra layers are identified, 8 visible and 3 cryptotephra levels, and three of these layers are recognized ultra-distally for the first time, extending their known distributions approximately 210 km further north.
References
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