Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon dates
Reads0
Chats0
TLDR
An overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4) are given.Abstract:
If radiocarbon measurements are to be used at all for chronological purposes, we have to use statistical methods for calibration. The most widely used method of calibration can be seen as a simple application of Bayesian statistics, which uses both the information from the new measurement and information from the 14C calibration curve. In most dating applications, however, we have larger numbers of 14C measurements and we wish to relate those to events in the past. Bayesian statistics provides a coherent framework in which such analysis can be performed and is becoming a core element in many 14C dating projects. This article gives an overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4). Many such models can be put together, in a modular fashion, from simple elements, with defined constraints and groupings. In other cases, the commonly used "uniform phase" models might not be appropriate, and ramped, exponential, or normal distributions of events might be more useful. When considering analyses of these kinds, it is useful to be able run simulations on synthetic data. Methods for performing such tests are discussed here along with other methods of diagnosing possible problems with statistical models of this kind.read more
Citations
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
Late Glacial and Holocene development of Lake Donggi Cona, north-eastern Tibetan Plateau, inferred from sedimentological analysis
Stephan Opitz,Bernd Wünnemann,Bernd Wünnemann,Bernhard Aichner,Elisabeth Dietze,Kai Hartmann,Ulrike Herzschuh,Janneke IJmker,Frank Lehmkuhl,Shijie Li,Steffen Mischke,Anna Plotzki,Georg Stauch,Bernhard Diekmann +13 more
TL;DR: In this article, sediment cores from Lake Donggi Cona on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau were studied to infer changes in the lacustrine depositional environment, related to climatic and non-climatic changes during the last 19kyr.
Journal ArticleDOI
An Online Application for ΔR Calculation
Ron W Reimer,Paula J. Reimer +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present an online application for calculating the uncertainty of the regional offset from the marine radiocarbon calibration curve for known-age, paired marine and terrestrial 14C dates and U-Th dated corals.
Journal ArticleDOI
Neandertal cannibalism and Neandertal bones used as tools in Northern Europe
Hélène Rougier,Isabelle Crevecoeur,Cédric Beauval,Cosimo Posth,Cosimo Posth,Damien Flas,Christoph Wißing,Anja Furtwängler,Mietje Germonpré,Asier Gómez-Olivencia,Patrick Semal,Johannes van der Plicht,Johannes van der Plicht,Hervé Bocherens,Johannes Krause,Johannes Krause +15 more
TL;DR: Goyet not only provides the first unambiguous evidence of Neandertal cannibalism in Northern Europe, but also highlights considerable diversity in mortuary behaviour among the region’s late Ne andertal population in the period immediately preceding their disappearance.
Journal ArticleDOI
Ancient Fennoscandian genomes reveal origin and spread of Siberian ancestry in Europe
Thiseas Christos Lamnidis,Kerttu Majander,Choongwon Jeong,Elina Salmela,Anna Wessman,Vyacheslav Moiseyev,Valery Khartanovich,Oleg Balanovsky,Matthias Ongyerth,Antje Weihmann,Antti Sajantila,Janet Kelso,Svante Pääbo,Päivi Onkamo,Päivi Onkamo,Wolfgang Haak,Johannes Krause,Stephan Schiffels +17 more
TL;DR: It is shown that the genetic makeup of northern Europe was shaped by migrations from Siberia that began at least 3500 years ago, and Siberian ancestry was subsequently admixed into many modern populations in the region, particularly into populations speaking Uralic languages today.
Journal ArticleDOI
Late Quaternary environments and prehistoric occupation in the lower White Nile valley, central Sudan
Martin Williams,Donatella Usai,Sandro Salvatori,Frances M. Williams,Andrea Zerboni,Lara Maritan,Veerle Linseele +6 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provided a qualified answer to the first question and documented affirmative answers to the second and third questions, respectively, by using the dates from three sites to the east of and three to the west of the lower White Nile.
References
More filters
BookDOI
Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice
TL;DR: The Markov Chain Monte Carlo Implementation Results Summary and Discussion MEDICAL MONITORING Introduction Modelling Medical Monitoring Computing Posterior Distributions Forecasting Model Criticism Illustrative Application Discussion MCMC for NONLINEAR HIERARCHICAL MODELS.
Journal ArticleDOI
Extended 14C Data Base and Revised Calib 3.0 14C Age Calibration Program
Minze Stuiver,Paula J. Reimer +1 more
TL;DR: The age calibration program, CALIB (Stuiver & Reimer 1986), first made available in 1986 and subsequently modified in 1987 (revision 2.0 and 2.1), has been amended anew as mentioned in this paper.
Journal ArticleDOI
Sampling-Based Approaches to Calculating Marginal Densities
TL;DR: In this paper, three sampling-based approaches, namely stochastic substitution, the Gibbs sampler, and the sampling-importance-resampling algorithm, are compared and contrasted in relation to various joint probability structures frequently encountered in applications.
Journal Article
Sampling-based approaches to calculating marginal densities
TL;DR: Stochastic substitution, the Gibbs sampler, and the sampling-importance-resampling algorithm can be viewed as three alternative sampling- (or Monte Carlo-) based approaches to the calculation of numerical estimates of marginal probability distributions.
Journal ArticleDOI
Characterizing aquatic dissolved organic matter.
Minze Stuiver,Henry Polach +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, standards for reporting C-14 age determinations are discussed, and the statistical uncertainty (plus or minus one standard deviation) expresses counting errors, inaccuracies in voltage, pressure, temperature, dilution, and should include errors in C-13 ratios.
Related Papers (5)
IntCal13 and Marine13 radiocarbon age calibration curves 0-50,000 years cal BP
Paula J. Reimer,Edouard Bard,Alex Bayliss,J. Warren Beck,Paula G Blackwell,Christopher Bronk Ramsey,Caitlin E. Buck,Hai Cheng,R. Lawrence Edwards,Michael Friedrich,Pieter Meiert Grootes,Thomas P. Guilderson,Haflidi Haflidason,Irka Hajdas,Christine Hatté,Timothy J Heaton,Dirk L. Hoffmann,Alan G. Hogg,Konrad A Hughen,K Felix Kaiser,Bernd Kromer,Sturt W. Manning,Mu Niu,Ron W Reimer,David Richards,E. Marian Scott,John Southon,Richard A. Staff,Christian Turney,Johannes van der Plicht +29 more
IntCal13とMarine13放射性炭素年代較正曲線0-50,000年cal BP
Reimer Paula J,Bard Edouard,Bayliss Alex,Beck J Warren,Blackwell Paul G,Ramsey Christopher Bronk,Buck Caitlin E,Cheng Hai,Edwards R Lawrence,Friedrich Michael,Grootes Pieter M,Guilderson Thomas P,Haflidason Haflidi,Hajdas Irka,Hatte Christine,Heaton Timothy J,L Hoffmann Dirk,Hogg Alan G,Hughen Konrad A,Kaiser K Felix,Kromer Bernd,Manning Sturt W,Niu Mu,Reimer Ron W,Richards David A,Scott E Marian,Southon John R,Staff Richard A,Turney Christian S M,Van Der Plicht Johannes +29 more