Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon dates
TLDR
An overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4) are given.Abstract:
If radiocarbon measurements are to be used at all for chronological purposes, we have to use statistical methods for calibration. The most widely used method of calibration can be seen as a simple application of Bayesian statistics, which uses both the information from the new measurement and information from the 14C calibration curve. In most dating applications, however, we have larger numbers of 14C measurements and we wish to relate those to events in the past. Bayesian statistics provides a coherent framework in which such analysis can be performed and is becoming a core element in many 14C dating projects. This article gives an overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4). Many such models can be put together, in a modular fashion, from simple elements, with defined constraints and groupings. In other cases, the commonly used "uniform phase" models might not be appropriate, and ramped, exponential, or normal distributions of events might be more useful. When considering analyses of these kinds, it is useful to be able run simulations on synthetic data. Methods for performing such tests are discussed here along with other methods of diagnosing possible problems with statistical models of this kind.read more
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Afromontane foragers of the Late Pleistocene: Site formation, chronology and occupational pulsing at Melikane Rockshelter, Lesotho
Brian Stewart,Genevieve Dewar,Mike W. Morley,Robyn Helen Inglis,Mark Wheeler,Zenobia Jacobs,Richard G. Roberts +6 more
TL;DR: A preliminary chronostratigraphic and palaeoenvironmental framework for the Late Pleistocene archaeological sequence at Melikane Rockshelter in mountainous eastern Lesotho is provided in this paper.
Journal ArticleDOI
The origins and spread of domestic horses from the Western Eurasian steppes.
Pablo Librado,Naveed Khan,Naveed Khan,Antoine Fages,Mariya A. Kusliy,Tomasz Suchan,Tomasz Suchan,Laure Tonasso-Calvière,Stéphanie Schiavinato,Duha Alioglu,Aurore Fromentier,Aude Perdereau,Jean-Marc Aury,Charleen Gaunitz,Lorelei Chauvey,Andaine Seguin-Orlando,Clio Der Sarkissian,John Southon,Beth Shapiro,Alexey A. Tishkin,Alexey A. Kovalev,Saleh A. Alquraishi,Ahmed H. Alfarhan,Khaled A. S. Al-Rasheid,Timo Seregély,Lutz Klassen,Rune Iversen,Olivier Bignon-Lau,Pierre Bodu,Monique Olive,Jean-Christophe Castel,Myriam Boudadi-Maligne,Nadir Alvarez,Nadir Alvarez,Mietje Germonpré,Magdalena Moskal-del Hoyo,Jarosław Wilczyński,Sylwia Pospuła,Anna Lasota-Kuś,Krzysztof Tunia,Marek Nowak,Eve Rannamäe,Urmas Saarma,G. G. Boeskorov,Lembi Lōugas,René Kyselý,Lubomír Peške,Adrian Bălășescu,Valentin Dumitrașcu,Roxana Dobrescu,Daniel Gerber,Viktória Kiss,Anna Szécsényi-Nagy,Balázs Gusztáv Mende,Zsolt Gallina,Krisztina Somogyi,Gabriella Kulcsár,Erika Gál,Robin Bendrey,Morten E. Allentoft,Morten E. Allentoft,Ghenadie Sîrbu,Valentin Dergachev,Henry Shephard,Noémie Tomadini,Sandrine Grouard,Aleksei Kasparov,Alexander E. Basilyan,Mikhail A. Anisimov,Pavel A. Nikolskiy,Elena Y. Pavlova,Vladimir V. Pitulko,Gottfried Brem,Barbara Wallner,Christoph Schwall,Marcel Keller,Marcel Keller,Keiko Kitagawa,Keiko Kitagawa,Alexander N. Bessudnov,Alexander Bessudnov,William B. Taylor,Jérome Magail,Jamiyan-Ombo Gantulga,Jamsranjav Bayarsaikhan,Diimaajav Erdenebaatar,Kubatbeek Tabaldiev,Enkhbayar Mijiddorj,Bazartseren Boldgiv,Turbat Tsagaan,Mélanie Pruvost,Sandra Olsen,Cheryl A. Makarewicz,Silvia Valenzuela Lamas,Silvia Albizuri Canadell,Ariadna Nieto Espinet,Ma Pilar Iborra,Jaime Lira Garrido,Esther Rodríguez González,Sebastián Celestino,Carmen Olària,Juan Luis Arsuaga,Nadiia Kotova,Alexander J.E. Pryor,Pam Crabtree,Rinat Zhumatayev,Abdesh Toleubaev,N. L. Morgunova,Tatiana Kuznetsova,Tatiana Kuznetsova,David Lordkipanize,David Lordkipanize,M. Marzullo,Ornella Prato,Giovanna Bagnasco Gianni,Umberto Tecchiati,Benoît Clavel,Sébastien Lepetz,Hossein Davoudi,Marjan Mashkour,Natalia Berezina,Philipp W. Stockhammer,Philipp W. Stockhammer,Johannes Krause,Wolfgang Haak,Wolfgang Haak,Arturo Morales-Muñiz,Norbert Benecke,Michael Hofreiter,Arne Ludwig,Arne Ludwig,Alexander S. Graphodatsky,Joris Peters,Kirill Yu. Kiryushin,Tumur-Ochir Iderkhangai,Nikolay A. Bokovenko,Sergey K. Vasiliev,N Seregin,Konstantin V. Chugunov,Natalya A. Plasteeva,Gennady F. Baryshnikov,Ekaterina Petrova,Mikhail V. Sablin,Elina Ananyevskaya,Andrey Logvin,Irina Shevnina,Victor Logvin,Saule Kalieva,Valeriy Loman,I. V. Kukushkin,Ilya Merz,Victor Merz,Sergazy Sakenov,Victor Varfolomeyev,Emma Usmanova,Viktor Zaibert,Benjamin S. Arbuckle,A. Belinskiy,Alexej Kalmykov,Sabine Reinhold,Svend Hansen,Aleksandr I. Yudin,Alekandr A. Vybornov,Andrey Epimakhov,Andrey Epimakhov,Natalia S. Berezina,Natalia Roslyakova,Pavel A. Kosintsev,Pavel A. Kosintsev,Pavel Kuznetsov,David W. Anthony,David W. Anthony,Guus Kroonen,Guus Kroonen,Kristian Kristiansen,Kristian Kristiansen,Patrick Wincker,Alan K. Outram,Ludovic Orlando +178 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors identify the Western Eurasian steppes, especially the lower Volga-Don region, as the homeland of modern domestic horses and map the population changes accompanying domestication from 273 ancient horse genomes.
Journal ArticleDOI
Coastal evidence for Holocene subduction-zone earthquakes and tsunamis in central Chile
Tina Dura,Tina Dura,Marco Cisternas,Benjamin P. Horton,Benjamin P. Horton,Lisa L. Ely,Alan R. Nelson,Robert L. Wesson,Jessica E. Pilarczyk,Jessica E. Pilarczyk +9 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors extend the seismic history of central Chile through a study of a lowland stratigraphic sequence along the metropolitan coast north of Valparaiso (33°S).
Journal ArticleDOI
Plant macrofossil evidence for an early onset of the Holocene summer thermal maximum in northernmost Europe
Minna Väliranta,J. S. Salonen,Maija Heikkilä,Leeli Amon,Karin F. Helmens,A. Klimaschewski,Peter Kuhry,Seija Kultti,Anneli Poska,Anneli Poska,Shyhrete Shala,Siim Veski,Hilary H. Birks +12 more
TL;DR: It is shown that quantitative summer-temperature estimates in northern Europe based on macrofossils of aquatic plants are in many cases higher in the early Holocene than reconstructions based on pollen data, and further validation of early post-glacial climate development based on multi-proxy data syntheses is suggested.
Journal ArticleDOI
On the chronology of the Uluzzian.
Katerina Douka,Thomas Higham,Rachel Wood,Rachel Wood,Paolo Boscato,Paolo Gambassini,Panagiotis Karkanas,Marco Peresani,Annamaria Ronchitelli +8 more
TL;DR: It is concluded that the Uluzzian arrived in Italy and Greece shortly before 45,000 years ago and its final stages are placed at ∼39,500 years ago, its end synchronous with the Campanian Ignimbrite eruption.
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