Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon dates
TLDR
An overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4) are given.Abstract:
If radiocarbon measurements are to be used at all for chronological purposes, we have to use statistical methods for calibration. The most widely used method of calibration can be seen as a simple application of Bayesian statistics, which uses both the information from the new measurement and information from the 14C calibration curve. In most dating applications, however, we have larger numbers of 14C measurements and we wish to relate those to events in the past. Bayesian statistics provides a coherent framework in which such analysis can be performed and is becoming a core element in many 14C dating projects. This article gives an overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4). Many such models can be put together, in a modular fashion, from simple elements, with defined constraints and groupings. In other cases, the commonly used "uniform phase" models might not be appropriate, and ramped, exponential, or normal distributions of events might be more useful. When considering analyses of these kinds, it is useful to be able run simulations on synthetic data. Methods for performing such tests are discussed here along with other methods of diagnosing possible problems with statistical models of this kind.read more
Citations
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Isotope paleoecology of episodic mid-to-late Holocene bison population expansions in the Southern Plains, U.S.A.
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The earlier Neolithic in Cyprus: recognition and dating of a Pre-Pottery Neolithic A occupation
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From Hunting to Herding: Land Use, Ecosystem Processes, and Social Transformation among Sami AD 800–1500
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Climatic variability in the northern sector of the American tropics since the latest MIS 3
Socorro Lozano-García,Beatriz Ortega,Priyadarsi D. Roy,Laura E. Beramendi-Orosco,Margarita Caballero +4 more
TL;DR: This paper inferred millennial-scale climate variations and paleohydrological conditions in the northern sector of the American tropics for 30.3-5.5-cal-ka BP using geochemical characteristics of sediments from Lake Chalco in central Mexico.
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SISALv2: A comprehensive speleothem isotope database with multiple age-depth models
Laia Comas-Bru,Kira Rehfeld,Carla Roesch,Sahar Amirnezhad-Mozhdehi,Sandy P. Harrison,Kamolphat Atsawawaranunt,Syed Masood Ahmad,Yassine Ait Brahim,Andy Baker,Matthew Bosomworth,Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach,Yuval Burstyn,Andrea Columbu,Michael Deininger,Attila Demény,Bronwyn C. Dixon,Jens Fohlmeister,István Gábor Hatvani,Jun Hu,Nikita Kaushal,Zoltán Kern,Inga Labuhn,Franziska A. Lechleitner,Andrew Lorrey,Belen Martrat,Valdir F. Novello,Jessica L. Oster,Carlos Pérez-Mejías,Denis Scholz,Nick Scroxton,Nitesh Sinha,Brittany Marie Ward,Sophie F. Warken,Haiwei Zhang +33 more
TL;DR: The SISAL-v2 database as mentioned in this paper has been updated with new age-depth models and their uncertainties, including the uncertainties for 512 speleothems, and it contains isotopic data from 691 speleothem records from 294 cave sites.
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