Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon dates
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TLDR
An overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4) are given.Abstract:
If radiocarbon measurements are to be used at all for chronological purposes, we have to use statistical methods for calibration. The most widely used method of calibration can be seen as a simple application of Bayesian statistics, which uses both the information from the new measurement and information from the 14C calibration curve. In most dating applications, however, we have larger numbers of 14C measurements and we wish to relate those to events in the past. Bayesian statistics provides a coherent framework in which such analysis can be performed and is becoming a core element in many 14C dating projects. This article gives an overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4). Many such models can be put together, in a modular fashion, from simple elements, with defined constraints and groupings. In other cases, the commonly used "uniform phase" models might not be appropriate, and ramped, exponential, or normal distributions of events might be more useful. When considering analyses of these kinds, it is useful to be able run simulations on synthetic data. Methods for performing such tests are discussed here along with other methods of diagnosing possible problems with statistical models of this kind.read more
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The early history of wheat in China from 14C dating and Bayesian chronological modelling.
Tengwen Long,Tengwen Long,Tengwen Long,Christian Leipe,Guiyun Jin,Mayke Wagner,Rongzhen Guo,Oskar Schröder,Oskar Schröder,Pavel E. Tarasov +9 more
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Gábor Újvári,Gábor Újvári,Thomas Stevens,Mihály Molnár,Attila Demény,Fabrice Lambert,György Varga,A. J. Timothy Jull,A. J. Timothy Jull,Barna Páll-Gergely,Jan-Pieter Buylaert,Jan-Pieter Buylaert,János Kovács +12 more
TL;DR: It is shown that Late Quaternary North Atlantic temperature and dustiness in Greenland and Europe were largely synchronous and suggested that this coupling was driven via precipitation changes and large-scale atmospheric circulation, and proposed that European dust emissions were modulated by dominant phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation.
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Serial population extinctions in a small mammal indicate Late Pleistocene ecosystem instability
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Evidence for surface faulting events along the Paganica fault prior to the 6 April 2009 L'Aquila earthquake (central Italy)
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Erosion or plant succession — How to interpret the presence of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (Glomeromycota) spores in pollen profiles collected from mires
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