Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon dates
TLDR
An overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4) are given.Abstract:
If radiocarbon measurements are to be used at all for chronological purposes, we have to use statistical methods for calibration. The most widely used method of calibration can be seen as a simple application of Bayesian statistics, which uses both the information from the new measurement and information from the 14C calibration curve. In most dating applications, however, we have larger numbers of 14C measurements and we wish to relate those to events in the past. Bayesian statistics provides a coherent framework in which such analysis can be performed and is becoming a core element in many 14C dating projects. This article gives an overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4). Many such models can be put together, in a modular fashion, from simple elements, with defined constraints and groupings. In other cases, the commonly used "uniform phase" models might not be appropriate, and ramped, exponential, or normal distributions of events might be more useful. When considering analyses of these kinds, it is useful to be able run simulations on synthetic data. Methods for performing such tests are discussed here along with other methods of diagnosing possible problems with statistical models of this kind.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
SHCal20 Southern Hemisphere Calibration, 0–55,000 Years cal BP
Alan G. Hogg,Alan G. Hogg,Timothy J Heaton,Quan Hua,Jonathan G. Palmer,Chris S. M. Turney,John Southon,Alex Bayliss,Paul G. Blackwell,Gretel Boswijk,Christopher Bronk Ramsey,Charlotte Pearson,Fiona Petchey,Fiona Petchey,Paula J. Reimer,Ron W Reimer,Lukas Wacker +16 more
TL;DR: In this article, the Southern Hemisphere curve (SHCal20) is proposed to estimate the mean Southern Hemisphere offset to be 36 ± 27 14C yrs older than the Northern Hemisphere offset, based upon a comparison of Southern Hemisphere tree-ring data compared with contemporaneous Northern Hemisphere data.
Journal ArticleDOI
Symbolic use of marine shells and mineral pigments by Iberian Neandertals
João Zilhão,Diego E. Angelucci,Ernestina Badal-Garcia,Francesco d'Errico,Floréal Daniel,Laure Dayet,Katerina Douka,Thomas Higham,María José Martínez-Sánchez,Ricardo Montes-Bernardez,Sonia Murcia-Mascarós,Carmen Pérez-Sirvent,Clodoaldo Roldan-Garcia,Marian Vanhaeren,Valentín Villaverde,Rachel Wood,Josefina Zapata +16 more
TL;DR: The Iberian finds show that European Neandertals were no different from coeval Africans in this regard, countering genetic/cognitive explanations for the emergence of symbolism and strengthening demographic/social ones.
Journal ArticleDOI
Deglaciation of Fennoscandia
Arjen P. Stroeven,Clas Hättestrand,Johan Kleman,Jakob Heyman,Derek Fabel,Ola Fredin,Bradley W. Goodfellow,Bradley W. Goodfellow,Jonathan M. Harbor,Jonathan M. Harbor,John D. Jansen,John D. Jansen,Lars Folke Olsen,Marc W. Caffee,David Fink,Jan Lundqvist,Gunhild Rosqvist,Gunhild Rosqvist,Bo Strömberg,Krister N. Jansson +19 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors provide a new reconstruction of the deglaciation of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet, in the form of calendar-year time-slices, which are particularly useful for ice sheet modelling.
Journal ArticleDOI
The use of summed radiocarbon probability distributions in archaeology: a review of methods
TL;DR: In this article, the authors explored three key methodological issues associated with the use of summed probability plots of radiocarbon data: 1) the minimum sample size needed for a statistically reliable plot; 2) the effect of calibration on the structure of these plots; and 3) the application of a taphonomic correction to such time-series data.
Journal ArticleDOI
Journey to the east: diverse routes and variable flowering times for wheat and barley en route to prehistoric China
Xinyi Liu,Diane L. Lister,Zhijun Zhao,Cameron A. Petrie,Xiongsheng Zeng,Penelope J. Jones,Richard A. Staff,Richard A. Staff,Anil K. Pokharia,Jennifer Bates,R.N. Singh,Steven A. Weber,Giedre Motuzaite Matuzeviciute,Guanghui Dong,Haiming Li,Hongliang Lu,Hongen Jiang,Jianxin Wang,Jian Ma,Duo Tian,Guiyun Jin,Liping Zhou,Xiaohong Wu,Martin K. Jones +23 more
TL;DR: Investigating when barley cultivation dispersed from southwest Asia to regions of eastern Asia and how the eastern spring barley evolved in this context indicates that the eastern dispersals of wheat and barley were distinct in both space and time.
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