Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon dates
TLDR
An overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4) are given.Abstract:
If radiocarbon measurements are to be used at all for chronological purposes, we have to use statistical methods for calibration. The most widely used method of calibration can be seen as a simple application of Bayesian statistics, which uses both the information from the new measurement and information from the 14C calibration curve. In most dating applications, however, we have larger numbers of 14C measurements and we wish to relate those to events in the past. Bayesian statistics provides a coherent framework in which such analysis can be performed and is becoming a core element in many 14C dating projects. This article gives an overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4). Many such models can be put together, in a modular fashion, from simple elements, with defined constraints and groupings. In other cases, the commonly used "uniform phase" models might not be appropriate, and ramped, exponential, or normal distributions of events might be more useful. When considering analyses of these kinds, it is useful to be able run simulations on synthetic data. Methods for performing such tests are discussed here along with other methods of diagnosing possible problems with statistical models of this kind.read more
Citations
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
Lithology of the long sediment record recovered by the ICDP Dead Sea Deep Drilling Project (DSDDP)
Ina Neugebauer,Achim Brauer,Markus J. Schwab,Nicolas Waldmann,Yehouda Enzel,Hiroyuki Kitagawa,Adi Torfstein,Ute Frank,Peter Dulski,Amotz Agnon,Daniel Ariztegui,Zvi Ben-Avraham,Steven L. Goldstein,Mordechai Stein +13 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors presented essential lithological data including continuous magnetic susceptibility and geochemical scanning data and the basic stratigraphy including first chronological data of the long profile (5017-1) from the deep basin.
Journal ArticleDOI
Monumental architecture at Aguada Fénix and the rise of Maya civilization
Takeshi Inomata,Daniela Triadan,Verónica A. Vázquez López,Juan Carlos Fernandez-Diaz,Takayuki Omori,María Belén Méndez Bauer,M. Hernández,Timothy Beach,Clarissa Cagnato,Kazuo Aoyama,Hiroo Nasu +10 more
TL;DR: Lidar survey of the Maya lowlands uncovers the monumental site of Aguada Fénix, which dates to around 1000–800 bc and points to the role of communal construction in the development of Maya civilization.
Journal ArticleDOI
Ancient cattle genomics, origins, and rapid turnover in the Fertile Crescent.
Marta Pereira Verdugo,Victoria E. Mullin,Victoria E. Mullin,Amelie Scheu,Amelie Scheu,Valeria Mattiangeli,Kevin G. Daly,Pierpaolo Maisano Delser,Pierpaolo Maisano Delser,Andrew J. Hare,Joachim Burger,Matthew J. Collins,Matthew J. Collins,Ron Kehati,Paula Wapnish Hesse,Deirdre Fulton,Eberhard Sauer,Fatemeh Azadeh Mohaseb,Fatemeh Azadeh Mohaseb,Hossein Davoudi,Hossein Davoudi,Roya Khazaeli,Johanna Lhuillier,Claude Rapin,Saeed Ebrahimi,Mutalib Khasanov,S. M. Farhad Vahidi,David E. MacHugh,Okan Ertugrul,Chaido Koukouli-Chrysanthaki,Adamantios Sampson,George Kazantzis,Ioannis Kontopoulos,Jelena Bulatović,Ivana Stojanović,Abdesalam Mikdad,Norbert Benecke,Jörg Linstädter,Mikhail V. Sablin,Robin Bendrey,Robin Bendrey,Lionel Gourichon,Benjamin S. Arbuckle,Marjan Mashkour,Marjan Mashkour,David Orton,Liora Kolska Horwitz,Matthew D. Teasdale,Matthew D. Teasdale,Daniel G. Bradley +49 more
TL;DR: Genome-wide analysis of 67 ancient Near Eastern cattle remains reveals regional variation that has since been obscured by admixture in modern populations, and mitochondrial DNA stasis supports that this introgression was male-driven, suggesting that selection of arid-adapted zebu bulls enhanced herd survival.
Journal ArticleDOI
Detrital carbonate peaks on the Labrador shelf, a 13–7 ka template for freshwater forcing from the Hudson Strait outlet of the Laurentide Ice Sheet into the subpolar gyre
TL;DR: In this article, a detailed history of the timing of ice-sheet discharge events from the Hudson Strait outlet of the Laurentide Ice Sheet during the Holocene using high-resolution detrital carbonate, ice rafted detritus (IRD), δ18O, and sediment color data was developed from the Cartwright Saddle.
Journal ArticleDOI
Mid-Holocene bottleneck for central European dry grasslands: Did steppe survive the forest optimum in northern Bohemia, Czech Republic?:
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined whether the early Holocene steppe habitats survived the critical period of maximum Holocene afforestation: the mid-Holocene bottleneck and found that the steppe grasslands in central Bohemia were a direct continuation of the late Pleistocene and early holocene natural steppe rather than a purely cultural steppe developed only after deforestation by humans.
References
More filters
BookDOI
Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice
TL;DR: The Markov Chain Monte Carlo Implementation Results Summary and Discussion MEDICAL MONITORING Introduction Modelling Medical Monitoring Computing Posterior Distributions Forecasting Model Criticism Illustrative Application Discussion MCMC for NONLINEAR HIERARCHICAL MODELS.
Journal ArticleDOI
Extended 14C Data Base and Revised Calib 3.0 14C Age Calibration Program
Minze Stuiver,Paula J. Reimer +1 more
TL;DR: The age calibration program, CALIB (Stuiver & Reimer 1986), first made available in 1986 and subsequently modified in 1987 (revision 2.0 and 2.1), has been amended anew as mentioned in this paper.
Journal ArticleDOI
Sampling-Based Approaches to Calculating Marginal Densities
TL;DR: In this paper, three sampling-based approaches, namely stochastic substitution, the Gibbs sampler, and the sampling-importance-resampling algorithm, are compared and contrasted in relation to various joint probability structures frequently encountered in applications.
Journal Article
Sampling-based approaches to calculating marginal densities
TL;DR: Stochastic substitution, the Gibbs sampler, and the sampling-importance-resampling algorithm can be viewed as three alternative sampling- (or Monte Carlo-) based approaches to the calculation of numerical estimates of marginal probability distributions.
Journal ArticleDOI
Characterizing aquatic dissolved organic matter.
Minze Stuiver,Henry Polach +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, standards for reporting C-14 age determinations are discussed, and the statistical uncertainty (plus or minus one standard deviation) expresses counting errors, inaccuracies in voltage, pressure, temperature, dilution, and should include errors in C-13 ratios.
Related Papers (5)
IntCal13 and Marine13 radiocarbon age calibration curves 0-50,000 years cal BP
Paula J. Reimer,Edouard Bard,Alex Bayliss,J. Warren Beck,Paula G Blackwell,Christopher Bronk Ramsey,Caitlin E. Buck,Hai Cheng,R. Lawrence Edwards,Michael Friedrich,Pieter Meiert Grootes,Thomas P. Guilderson,Haflidi Haflidason,Irka Hajdas,Christine Hatté,Timothy J Heaton,Dirk L. Hoffmann,Alan G. Hogg,Konrad A Hughen,K Felix Kaiser,Bernd Kromer,Sturt W. Manning,Mu Niu,Ron W Reimer,David Richards,E. Marian Scott,John Southon,Richard A. Staff,Christian Turney,Johannes van der Plicht +29 more
IntCal13とMarine13放射性炭素年代較正曲線0-50,000年cal BP
Reimer Paula J,Bard Edouard,Bayliss Alex,Beck J Warren,Blackwell Paul G,Ramsey Christopher Bronk,Buck Caitlin E,Cheng Hai,Edwards R Lawrence,Friedrich Michael,Grootes Pieter M,Guilderson Thomas P,Haflidason Haflidi,Hajdas Irka,Hatte Christine,Heaton Timothy J,L Hoffmann Dirk,Hogg Alan G,Hughen Konrad A,Kaiser K Felix,Kromer Bernd,Manning Sturt W,Niu Mu,Reimer Ron W,Richards David A,Scott E Marian,Southon John R,Staff Richard A,Turney Christian S M,Van Der Plicht Johannes +29 more