Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon dates
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An overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4) are given.Abstract:
If radiocarbon measurements are to be used at all for chronological purposes, we have to use statistical methods for calibration. The most widely used method of calibration can be seen as a simple application of Bayesian statistics, which uses both the information from the new measurement and information from the 14C calibration curve. In most dating applications, however, we have larger numbers of 14C measurements and we wish to relate those to events in the past. Bayesian statistics provides a coherent framework in which such analysis can be performed and is becoming a core element in many 14C dating projects. This article gives an overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4). Many such models can be put together, in a modular fashion, from simple elements, with defined constraints and groupings. In other cases, the commonly used "uniform phase" models might not be appropriate, and ramped, exponential, or normal distributions of events might be more useful. When considering analyses of these kinds, it is useful to be able run simulations on synthetic data. Methods for performing such tests are discussed here along with other methods of diagnosing possible problems with statistical models of this kind.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Consolidation or initial design? Radiocarbon dating of ancient iron alloys sheds light on the reinforcements of French Gothic Cathedrals
Stéphanie Leroy,Maxime l'Héritier,Emmanuelle Delqué-Količ,Jean-Pascal Dumoulin,Christophe Moreau,Philippe Dillmann +5 more
TL;DR: In this article, an original radiocarbon dating methodology to date metal itself was presented, which revealed the major and active roles played by iron in the strategy of the building yards.
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A multiproxy palaeolimnological study of climate and nutrient impacts on Esthwaite Water, England over the past 1200 years
TL;DR: In this article, the response of diatom assemblages to changes in climate and nutrients over a 1200 year timescale was investigated by means of a multiproxy sediment core study involving radiometric dating, diatoms, grain size, loss on ignition and geochemical analysis.
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Paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic context during the Upper Palaeolithic (late Upper Pleistocene) in the Italian Peninsula. The small mammal record from Grotta Paglicci (Rignano Garganico, Foggia, Southern Italy)
TL;DR: The results show remarkable differences through the record: major climatic changes (GS2 is particularly well defined) are visible and a clear turning point is observable at the Bolling-Allerod interstadial transition.
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A late glacial Antarctic climate teleconnection and variable Holocene seasonality at Lake Pupuke, Auckland, New Zealand
Thomas Stephens,Thomas Stephens,Daniel Atkin,Paul Augustinus,Philip B. Shane,Andrew Lorrey,Alayne Street-Perrott,Andreas Nilsson,Ian Snowball +8 more
TL;DR: A tephra and radiocarbon-based chronology was developed to infer the timing of marked paleolimnological changes in Lake Pupuke, Auckland, New Zealand, identified using sedimentology, magnetic susceptibility, grain size and geochemistry as discussed by the authors.
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Holocene Indian Ocean tsunami history in Sri Lanka
K. L. Jackson,Gregor P. Eberli,Falk Amelung,Melany A. McFadden,Andrew Moore,Eugene C. Rankey,H.A.H. Jayasena +6 more
TL;DR: Sediment cores from Karagan Lagoon in southeastern Sri Lanka retrieved deposits from the A.D. 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and older similar deposits that provide evidence for a tsunami 2417 ± 152 cal. yr B.P. as discussed by the authors.
References
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