Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon dates
Reads0
Chats0
TLDR
An overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4) are given.Abstract:
If radiocarbon measurements are to be used at all for chronological purposes, we have to use statistical methods for calibration. The most widely used method of calibration can be seen as a simple application of Bayesian statistics, which uses both the information from the new measurement and information from the 14C calibration curve. In most dating applications, however, we have larger numbers of 14C measurements and we wish to relate those to events in the past. Bayesian statistics provides a coherent framework in which such analysis can be performed and is becoming a core element in many 14C dating projects. This article gives an overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4). Many such models can be put together, in a modular fashion, from simple elements, with defined constraints and groupings. In other cases, the commonly used "uniform phase" models might not be appropriate, and ramped, exponential, or normal distributions of events might be more useful. When considering analyses of these kinds, it is useful to be able run simulations on synthetic data. Methods for performing such tests are discussed here along with other methods of diagnosing possible problems with statistical models of this kind.read more
Citations
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
Strategic and Sporadic Marine Consumption at the Onset of the Neolithic: Increasing Temporal Resolution in the Isotope Evidence
Janet Montgomery,Julia Beaumont,Mandy Jay,Katie Keefe,Andrew Gledhill,Gordon Cook,Stephen J. Dockrill,Nigel D. Melton +7 more
TL;DR: In this paper, stable isotope analysis has provided crucial new insights into dietary change at the Neolithic transition in north-west Europe, indicating an unexpectedly sudden and radical shift from marine to terrestrial resources in coastal and island locations.
Journal ArticleDOI
Ancient West African foragers in the context of African population history
Mark Lipson,Isabelle Ribot,Swapan Mallick,Swapan Mallick,Swapan Mallick,Nadin Rohland,Iñigo Olalde,Iñigo Olalde,Nicole Adamski,Nicole Adamski,Nasreen Broomandkhoshbacht,Nasreen Broomandkhoshbacht,Nasreen Broomandkhoshbacht,Ann Marie Lawson,Ann Marie Lawson,Saioa López,Jonas Oppenheimer,Jonas Oppenheimer,Jonas Oppenheimer,Kristin Stewardson,Kristin Stewardson,R. Asombang,Hervé Bocherens,Neil Bradman,Brendan J. Culleton,Els Cornelissen,Isabelle Crevecoeur,Pierre de Maret,Forka Leypey Mathew Fomine,P. Lavachery,Christophe Mbida Mindzie,Rosine Orban,Elizabeth A. Sawchuk,Patrick Semal,Mark G. Thomas,Wim Van Neer,Wim Van Neer,Krishna R. Veeramah,Douglas J. Kennett,Nick Patterson,Garrett Hellenthal,Carles Lalueza-Fox,Scott MacEachern,Mary E. Prendergast,Mary E. Prendergast,David Reich +45 more
TL;DR: An Africa-wide phylogeny is infer that features widespread admixture and three prominent radiations, including one that gave rise to at least four major lineages deep in the history of modern humans.
Journal ArticleDOI
Early procurement of scarlet macaws and the emergence of social complexity in Chaco Canyon, NM
Adam S. Watson,Stephen Plog,Brendan J. Culleton,Patricia A. Gilman,Steven A. LeBlanc,Peter M. Whiteley,Santiago Claramunt,Douglas J. Kennett +7 more
TL;DR: The 10th century acquisition of scarlet macaws is consistent with the hypothesis that more formalized status hierarchies developed with significant connections to Mesoamerica before the post-A.D. 1040 peak of Chacoan influence and architectural expansion, and is linked to the early formalization of social hierarchy in Chaco.
Journal ArticleDOI
A radiocarbon chronology for the complete Middle to Upper Palaeolithic transitional sequence of Les Cottés (France)
TL;DR: In this article, the Mousterian and Châtelperronian industries are separated from the overlying Protoaurignacian by a gap of approximately 1000 calendar years.
Journal ArticleDOI
Catastrophic slope failure and its origins: Case of the May 2010 Girova Mountain long-runout rockslide (Czech Republic)
Tomáš Pánek,Karel Šilhán,Petr Tábořík,Jan Hradecký,Veronika Smolková,Jan Lenart,Rudolf Brázdil,Lucie Kašičková,Anna Pazdur +8 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used radiocarbon dating and dendrogeomorphological analysis to reconstruct the chronology of slope failures within the studied slope, and showed that the failure had been preceded by at least 80-yearlong creep movement that accelerated over the years due to extreme rainfall events.
References
More filters
BookDOI
Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice
TL;DR: The Markov Chain Monte Carlo Implementation Results Summary and Discussion MEDICAL MONITORING Introduction Modelling Medical Monitoring Computing Posterior Distributions Forecasting Model Criticism Illustrative Application Discussion MCMC for NONLINEAR HIERARCHICAL MODELS.
Journal ArticleDOI
Extended 14C Data Base and Revised Calib 3.0 14C Age Calibration Program
Minze Stuiver,Paula J. Reimer +1 more
TL;DR: The age calibration program, CALIB (Stuiver & Reimer 1986), first made available in 1986 and subsequently modified in 1987 (revision 2.0 and 2.1), has been amended anew as mentioned in this paper.
Journal ArticleDOI
Sampling-Based Approaches to Calculating Marginal Densities
TL;DR: In this paper, three sampling-based approaches, namely stochastic substitution, the Gibbs sampler, and the sampling-importance-resampling algorithm, are compared and contrasted in relation to various joint probability structures frequently encountered in applications.
Journal Article
Sampling-based approaches to calculating marginal densities
TL;DR: Stochastic substitution, the Gibbs sampler, and the sampling-importance-resampling algorithm can be viewed as three alternative sampling- (or Monte Carlo-) based approaches to the calculation of numerical estimates of marginal probability distributions.
Journal ArticleDOI
Characterizing aquatic dissolved organic matter.
Minze Stuiver,Henry Polach +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, standards for reporting C-14 age determinations are discussed, and the statistical uncertainty (plus or minus one standard deviation) expresses counting errors, inaccuracies in voltage, pressure, temperature, dilution, and should include errors in C-13 ratios.
Related Papers (5)
IntCal13 and Marine13 radiocarbon age calibration curves 0-50,000 years cal BP
Paula J. Reimer,Edouard Bard,Alex Bayliss,J. Warren Beck,Paula G Blackwell,Christopher Bronk Ramsey,Caitlin E. Buck,Hai Cheng,R. Lawrence Edwards,Michael Friedrich,Pieter Meiert Grootes,Thomas P. Guilderson,Haflidi Haflidason,Irka Hajdas,Christine Hatté,Timothy J Heaton,Dirk L. Hoffmann,Alan G. Hogg,Konrad A Hughen,K Felix Kaiser,Bernd Kromer,Sturt W. Manning,Mu Niu,Ron W Reimer,David Richards,E. Marian Scott,John Southon,Richard A. Staff,Christian Turney,Johannes van der Plicht +29 more
IntCal13とMarine13放射性炭素年代較正曲線0-50,000年cal BP
Reimer Paula J,Bard Edouard,Bayliss Alex,Beck J Warren,Blackwell Paul G,Ramsey Christopher Bronk,Buck Caitlin E,Cheng Hai,Edwards R Lawrence,Friedrich Michael,Grootes Pieter M,Guilderson Thomas P,Haflidason Haflidi,Hajdas Irka,Hatte Christine,Heaton Timothy J,L Hoffmann Dirk,Hogg Alan G,Hughen Konrad A,Kaiser K Felix,Kromer Bernd,Manning Sturt W,Niu Mu,Reimer Ron W,Richards David A,Scott E Marian,Southon John R,Staff Richard A,Turney Christian S M,Van Der Plicht Johannes +29 more