Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon dates
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An overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4) are given.Abstract:
If radiocarbon measurements are to be used at all for chronological purposes, we have to use statistical methods for calibration. The most widely used method of calibration can be seen as a simple application of Bayesian statistics, which uses both the information from the new measurement and information from the 14C calibration curve. In most dating applications, however, we have larger numbers of 14C measurements and we wish to relate those to events in the past. Bayesian statistics provides a coherent framework in which such analysis can be performed and is becoming a core element in many 14C dating projects. This article gives an overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4). Many such models can be put together, in a modular fashion, from simple elements, with defined constraints and groupings. In other cases, the commonly used "uniform phase" models might not be appropriate, and ramped, exponential, or normal distributions of events might be more useful. When considering analyses of these kinds, it is useful to be able run simulations on synthetic data. Methods for performing such tests are discussed here along with other methods of diagnosing possible problems with statistical models of this kind.read more
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Journal ArticleDOI
Earliest evidence for ground-edge axes: 35,400±410 cal BP from Jawoyn Country, Arnhem Land
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TL;DR: In this paper, the earliest securely dated ground-edge implement in the world at Nawarla Gabarnmang (northern Australia) is reported, sandwiched between four statistically indistinguishable AMS radiocarbon dates of 35,400±410 cal BP, indicating technological innovations by fully modern Homo sapiens sapiens at the eastern end of the Out-of-Africa 2 Southern Arc dispersal route.
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The 3.6 ka Aniakchak tephra in the Arctic Ocean: a constraint on the Holocene radiocarbon reservoir age in the Chukchi Sea
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Towards complexity in osseous raw material exploitation by the first anatomically modern humans in Europe: Aurignacian antler working
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Grotte de la Verpillière II, Germolles, France: Preliminary insights from a new Middle Paleolithic site in southern Burgundy
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Variation in the radiocarbon age of different fractions of peat: A case study from Ahrenshöft, northern Germany
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References
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