Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon dates
Reads0
Chats0
TLDR
An overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4) are given.Abstract:
If radiocarbon measurements are to be used at all for chronological purposes, we have to use statistical methods for calibration. The most widely used method of calibration can be seen as a simple application of Bayesian statistics, which uses both the information from the new measurement and information from the 14C calibration curve. In most dating applications, however, we have larger numbers of 14C measurements and we wish to relate those to events in the past. Bayesian statistics provides a coherent framework in which such analysis can be performed and is becoming a core element in many 14C dating projects. This article gives an overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4). Many such models can be put together, in a modular fashion, from simple elements, with defined constraints and groupings. In other cases, the commonly used "uniform phase" models might not be appropriate, and ramped, exponential, or normal distributions of events might be more useful. When considering analyses of these kinds, it is useful to be able run simulations on synthetic data. Methods for performing such tests are discussed here along with other methods of diagnosing possible problems with statistical models of this kind.read more
Citations
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
New chronology for the Middle Palaeolithic of the southern Caucasus suggests early demise of Neanderthals in this region.
Ron Pinhasi,Medea Nioradze,Nikoloz Tushabramishvili,Nikoloz Tushabramishvili,David Lordkipanidze,David Pleurdeau,Marie-Hélène Moncel,Daniel S. Adler,Chris Stringer,Thomas Higham +9 more
TL;DR: The results imply that Neanderthals did not survive in the southern Caucasus after 37 ka cal BP, supporting a model of Neanderthal extinction around the same period as reported for the northern Caucasus and other regions of Europe.
Journal ArticleDOI
Dry Creek Revisited: New Excavations, Radiocarbon Dates, and Site Formation Inform on the Peopling of Eastern Beringia
Kelly E. Graf,Lyndsay M. DiPietro,Kathryn E. Krasinski,Angela K. Gore,Heather L. Smith,Brendan J. Culleton,Douglas J. Kennett,David Rhode +7 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors report direct radiocarbon dates on cultural features associated with both occupation zones, one dating to 13,485-13,305 and the other to 11,060-10,590 cal B.P.
Journal ArticleDOI
Land use and mobility during the Neolithic in Wales explored using isotope analysis of tooth enamel
TL;DR: The strontium isotope results suggest that the majority of individuals buried at Penywyrlod did not source their childhood diet locally and provide evidence for migration during the transition to farming in Wales.
Journal ArticleDOI
Lateglacial to Holocene pedogenesis and formation of colluvial deposits in a loess landscape of Central Europe (Wetterau, Germany)
TL;DR: The LPC sequence of Gambach (Wetterau, Germany) can be regarded as an exceptional sequence for Lateglacial-Holocene pedogenesis and human impact in dry loess landscapes with the formation of a Cambisol having some properties related to Chernozem soil forming processes as mentioned in this paper.
Journal ArticleDOI
Burial in Early Medieval Scotland: New Questions
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a summary and interpretation of burial practices in Scotland in ad 400-650 and argue that the composition of the grave with stone, sand, timber and earth can be seen as a form of furnishing cognate with the use of grave goods elsewhere in Britain and the continent.
References
More filters
BookDOI
Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice
TL;DR: The Markov Chain Monte Carlo Implementation Results Summary and Discussion MEDICAL MONITORING Introduction Modelling Medical Monitoring Computing Posterior Distributions Forecasting Model Criticism Illustrative Application Discussion MCMC for NONLINEAR HIERARCHICAL MODELS.
Journal ArticleDOI
Extended 14C Data Base and Revised Calib 3.0 14C Age Calibration Program
Minze Stuiver,Paula J. Reimer +1 more
TL;DR: The age calibration program, CALIB (Stuiver & Reimer 1986), first made available in 1986 and subsequently modified in 1987 (revision 2.0 and 2.1), has been amended anew as mentioned in this paper.
Journal ArticleDOI
Sampling-Based Approaches to Calculating Marginal Densities
TL;DR: In this paper, three sampling-based approaches, namely stochastic substitution, the Gibbs sampler, and the sampling-importance-resampling algorithm, are compared and contrasted in relation to various joint probability structures frequently encountered in applications.
Journal Article
Sampling-based approaches to calculating marginal densities
TL;DR: Stochastic substitution, the Gibbs sampler, and the sampling-importance-resampling algorithm can be viewed as three alternative sampling- (or Monte Carlo-) based approaches to the calculation of numerical estimates of marginal probability distributions.
Journal ArticleDOI
Characterizing aquatic dissolved organic matter.
Minze Stuiver,Henry Polach +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, standards for reporting C-14 age determinations are discussed, and the statistical uncertainty (plus or minus one standard deviation) expresses counting errors, inaccuracies in voltage, pressure, temperature, dilution, and should include errors in C-13 ratios.
Related Papers (5)
IntCal13 and Marine13 radiocarbon age calibration curves 0-50,000 years cal BP
Paula J. Reimer,Edouard Bard,Alex Bayliss,J. Warren Beck,Paula G Blackwell,Christopher Bronk Ramsey,Caitlin E. Buck,Hai Cheng,R. Lawrence Edwards,Michael Friedrich,Pieter Meiert Grootes,Thomas P. Guilderson,Haflidi Haflidason,Irka Hajdas,Christine Hatté,Timothy J Heaton,Dirk L. Hoffmann,Alan G. Hogg,Konrad A Hughen,K Felix Kaiser,Bernd Kromer,Sturt W. Manning,Mu Niu,Ron W Reimer,David Richards,E. Marian Scott,John Southon,Richard A. Staff,Christian Turney,Johannes van der Plicht +29 more
IntCal13とMarine13放射性炭素年代較正曲線0-50,000年cal BP
Reimer Paula J,Bard Edouard,Bayliss Alex,Beck J Warren,Blackwell Paul G,Ramsey Christopher Bronk,Buck Caitlin E,Cheng Hai,Edwards R Lawrence,Friedrich Michael,Grootes Pieter M,Guilderson Thomas P,Haflidason Haflidi,Hajdas Irka,Hatte Christine,Heaton Timothy J,L Hoffmann Dirk,Hogg Alan G,Hughen Konrad A,Kaiser K Felix,Kromer Bernd,Manning Sturt W,Niu Mu,Reimer Ron W,Richards David A,Scott E Marian,Southon John R,Staff Richard A,Turney Christian S M,Van Der Plicht Johannes +29 more