Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon dates
TLDR
An overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4) are given.Abstract:
If radiocarbon measurements are to be used at all for chronological purposes, we have to use statistical methods for calibration. The most widely used method of calibration can be seen as a simple application of Bayesian statistics, which uses both the information from the new measurement and information from the 14C calibration curve. In most dating applications, however, we have larger numbers of 14C measurements and we wish to relate those to events in the past. Bayesian statistics provides a coherent framework in which such analysis can be performed and is becoming a core element in many 14C dating projects. This article gives an overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4). Many such models can be put together, in a modular fashion, from simple elements, with defined constraints and groupings. In other cases, the commonly used "uniform phase" models might not be appropriate, and ramped, exponential, or normal distributions of events might be more useful. When considering analyses of these kinds, it is useful to be able run simulations on synthetic data. Methods for performing such tests are discussed here along with other methods of diagnosing possible problems with statistical models of this kind.read more
Citations
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Ancient Jomon genome sequence analysis sheds light on migration patterns of early East Asian populations.
Takashi Gakuhari,Takashi Gakuhari,Shigeki Nakagome,Simon Rasmussen,Morten E. Allentoft,Morten E. Allentoft,Takehiro Sato,Thorfinn Sand Korneliussen,Blánaid Ní Chuinneagáin,Hiromi Matsumae,Kae Koganebuchi,Ryan Schmidt,Souichiro Mizushima,Osamu Kondo,Nobuo Shigehara,Minoru Yoneda,Ryosuke Kimura,Hajime Ishida,Tadayuki Masuyama,Yasuhiro Yamada,Atsushi Tajima,Hiroki Shibata,Atsushi Toyoda,Toshiyuki Tsurumoto,Tetsuaki Wakebe,Hiromi Shitara,Tsunehiko Hanihara,Eske Willerslev,Eske Willerslev,Eske Willerslev,Martin Sikora,Hiroki Oota,Hiroki Oota +32 more
TL;DR: The phylogenetic analyses support multiple waves of migration, with IK002 likely representing some of the earliest-wave migrants who went north from Southeast Asia to East Asia and shows strong genetic affinity with the indigenous Taiwan aborigines, which may support a coastal route of the Jomon-ancestry migration.
Journal ArticleDOI
The chronology of culture: a comparative assessment of European Neolithic dating approaches
Katie Manning,Adrian Timpson,Sue Colledge,Enrico R. Crema,Kevan Edinborough,Tim Kerig,Stephen Shennan +6 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compare radiocarbon dates for a series of European Neolithic cultures with their generally accepted ‘standard’ date ranges and with the greater precision afforded by dendrochronology, where that is available.
Journal ArticleDOI
Re-envisioning long-distance Oceanic migration: early dates in the Mariana Islands
Mike T. Carson,Hiro Kurashina +1 more
TL;DR: Early site-dating of the Mariana Islands has been shown to date as early as 1500-1350 bc as mentioned in this paper, with Lapita pottery makers entering the Bismarck Archipelago about 1500 and spreading into the remote islands of Southern Melanesia and West Polynesia after 1200 bc.
Journal ArticleDOI
Chemical weathering over the last 1200 years recorded in the sediments of Gonghai Lake, Lvliang Mountains, North China: a high‐resolution proxy of past climate
TL;DR: In this article, an AMS C-14-dated 2.8m-long sediment core, GH09B1, from Lake Gonghai in north-central China was subjected to detailed geochemical analyses to evaluate the intensity of chemical weathering conditions in the catchment.
Journal ArticleDOI
The end of the affair: formal chronological modelling for the top of the Neolithic tell of Vinča-Belo Brdo
Nenad Tasić,Miroslav Marić,Kristina Penezić,Dragana Filipović,Ksenija Borojevic,N. Russell,Paula J. Reimer,Alistair Barclay,Alex Bayliss,Dusan Boric,Bisserka Gaydarska,Alasdair Whittle +11 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors applied Bayesian statistical frameworks to the Neolithic tell of Vinca-Belo Brdo in order to answer long-standing questions about the timing and circumstances of its demise.
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