Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon dates
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An overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4) are given.Abstract:
If radiocarbon measurements are to be used at all for chronological purposes, we have to use statistical methods for calibration. The most widely used method of calibration can be seen as a simple application of Bayesian statistics, which uses both the information from the new measurement and information from the 14C calibration curve. In most dating applications, however, we have larger numbers of 14C measurements and we wish to relate those to events in the past. Bayesian statistics provides a coherent framework in which such analysis can be performed and is becoming a core element in many 14C dating projects. This article gives an overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4). Many such models can be put together, in a modular fashion, from simple elements, with defined constraints and groupings. In other cases, the commonly used "uniform phase" models might not be appropriate, and ramped, exponential, or normal distributions of events might be more useful. When considering analyses of these kinds, it is useful to be able run simulations on synthetic data. Methods for performing such tests are discussed here along with other methods of diagnosing possible problems with statistical models of this kind.read more
Citations
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Methods for Summarizing Radiocarbon Datasets
TL;DR: Three different approaches are compared: “Sum” distributions, postulated undated events, and kernel density approaches and their suitability for visualizing the results from chronological and geographic analyses considered for cases with and without useful prior information.
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Abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age triggered by volcanism and sustained by sea‐ice/ocean feedbacks
Gifford H. Miller,Gifford H. Miller,Áslaug Geirsdóttir,Yafang Zhong,Darren J. Larsen,Darren J. Larsen,Bette L. Otto-Bliesner,Marika M. Holland,David A. Bailey,Kurt A. Refsnider,Scott J. Lehman,John Southon,Chance Anderson,Helgi Björnsson,Thorvaldur Thordarson +14 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present precisely dated records of ice-cap growth from Arctic Canada and Iceland showing that LIA summer cold and ice growth began abruptly between 1275 and 1300 AD, followed by a substantial intensification 1430-1455 AD.
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The timing and spatiotemporal patterning of Neanderthal disappearance
Thomas Higham,Katerina Douka,Rachel Wood,Christopher Bronk Ramsey,Fiona Brock,Laura Basell,Marta Camps,Alvaro Arrizabalaga,Javier Baena,Cecillio Barroso-Ruíz,Christopher A. Bergman,Coralie Boitard,Paolo Boscato,Miguel Caparrós,Nicholas J. Conard,Christelle Draily,Alain Froment,Bertila Galván,Paolo Gambassini,Alejandro García-Moreno,Stefano Grimaldi,Paul Haesaerts,Brigitte Holt,María-José Iriarte-Chiapusso,Arthur J. Jelinek,Jesús Francisco Jordá Pardo,José-Manuel Maíllo-Fernández,Anat Marom,Julià Maroto,Mario Menéndez,Laure Metz,Eugène Morin,Adriana Moroni,Fabio Negrino,Eleni Panagopoulou,Marco Peresani,Stéphane Pirson,Marco de la Rasilla,Julien Riel-Salvatore,Annamaria Ronchitelli,David Santamaría,Patrick Semal,Ludovic Slimak,Joaquim Soler,Narcís Soler,Aritza Villaluenga,Ron Pinhasi,Roger Jacobi +47 more
TL;DR: Improved accelerator mass spectrometry 14C techniques are applied to construct robust chronologies from 40 key Mousterian and Neanderthal archaeological sites, showing that there was ample time for the transmission of cultural and symbolic behaviours, as well as possible genetic exchanges, between the two groups.
Journal ArticleDOI
Human occupation of northern Australia by 65,000 years ago
Chris Clarkson,Zenobia Jacobs,Zenobia Jacobs,Ben Marwick,Ben Marwick,Richard Fullagar,Lynley A. Wallis,Mike Smith,Richard G. Roberts,Richard G. Roberts,Elspeth Hayes,Kelsey M. Lowe,Xavier Carah,S. Anna Florin,Jessica McNeil,Jessica McNeil,Delyth Cox,Lee J. Arnold,Quan Hua,Jillian Huntley,Helen E. A. Brand,Tiina Manne,Andrew Fairbairn,James Shulmeister,Lindsey Lyle,Makiah Salinas,Mara Page,Kate Connell,Gayoung Park,Kasih Norman,Tessa Murphy,Colin Pardoe +31 more
TL;DR: The results of new excavations conducted at Madjedbebe, a rock shelter in northern Australia, set a new minimum age of around 65,000 years ago for the arrival of humans in Australia, the dispersal of modern humans out of Africa, and the subsequent interactions ofmodern humans with Neanderthals and Denisovans.
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Regional population collapse followed initial agriculture booms in mid-Holocene Europe
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TL;DR: It is shown that the introduction of agriculture into Europe was followed by a boom-and-bust pattern in the density of regional populations, and the results suggest that the demographic patterns may have arisen from endogenous causes, although this remains speculative.
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