Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon dates
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An overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4) are given.Abstract:
If radiocarbon measurements are to be used at all for chronological purposes, we have to use statistical methods for calibration. The most widely used method of calibration can be seen as a simple application of Bayesian statistics, which uses both the information from the new measurement and information from the 14C calibration curve. In most dating applications, however, we have larger numbers of 14C measurements and we wish to relate those to events in the past. Bayesian statistics provides a coherent framework in which such analysis can be performed and is becoming a core element in many 14C dating projects. This article gives an overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4). Many such models can be put together, in a modular fashion, from simple elements, with defined constraints and groupings. In other cases, the commonly used "uniform phase" models might not be appropriate, and ramped, exponential, or normal distributions of events might be more useful. When considering analyses of these kinds, it is useful to be able run simulations on synthetic data. Methods for performing such tests are discussed here along with other methods of diagnosing possible problems with statistical models of this kind.read more
Citations
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Massive remobilization of permafrost carbon during post-glacial warming
Tommaso Tesi,Francesco Muschitiello,Rienk H. Smittenberg,Martin Jakobsson,Martin Jakobsson,Jorien E. Vonk,P. Hill,August Andersson,Nina Kirchner,Riko Noormets,Oleg Dudarev,Igor Semiletov,Igor Semiletov,Örjan Gustafsson +13 more
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Andrea D. Hawkes,Benjamin P. Horton,Benjamin P. Horton,Alan R. Nelson,Christopher H. Vane,Yuki Sawai +5 more
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Dating the Expansion of the Inca Empire: Bayesian Models from Ecuador and Argentina
TL;DR: In this article, the authors show that the ethnohistoric dates are incorrect and that the southern expansion began before the northern one, and they argue that it is time to abandon the traditional chronology in favor of Inca chronologies based on Bayesian models.
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Islands Under the Sea: A Review of Early Modern Human Dispersal Routes and Migration Hypotheses Through Wallacea
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References
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