Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon dates
TLDR
An overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4) are given.Abstract:
If radiocarbon measurements are to be used at all for chronological purposes, we have to use statistical methods for calibration. The most widely used method of calibration can be seen as a simple application of Bayesian statistics, which uses both the information from the new measurement and information from the 14C calibration curve. In most dating applications, however, we have larger numbers of 14C measurements and we wish to relate those to events in the past. Bayesian statistics provides a coherent framework in which such analysis can be performed and is becoming a core element in many 14C dating projects. This article gives an overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4). Many such models can be put together, in a modular fashion, from simple elements, with defined constraints and groupings. In other cases, the commonly used "uniform phase" models might not be appropriate, and ramped, exponential, or normal distributions of events might be more useful. When considering analyses of these kinds, it is useful to be able run simulations on synthetic data. Methods for performing such tests are discussed here along with other methods of diagnosing possible problems with statistical models of this kind.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Middle and Later Stone Age chronology of Kisese II rockshelter (UNESCO World Heritage Kondoa Rock-Art Sites), Tanzania
Christian A. Tryon,Jason Lewis,Kathryn L. Ranhorn,Amandus Kwekason,Bridget Alex,Myra F. Laird,Curtis W. Marean,Curtis W. Marean,Elizabeth M. Niespolo,Elizabeth M. Niespolo,Joelle Nivens,Audax Mabulla +11 more
TL;DR: The Kisese II rockshelter in the Kondoa region of Tanzania, originally excavated in 1956, preserves a 6-m-thick archaeological succession that spans the MSA/LSA transition, with lithic artifacts such as Levallois and bladelet cores and backed microliths, and >5,000 ostrich eggshell beads and bead fragments.
Journal ArticleDOI
Best practice methodology for 14C calibration of marine and mixed terrestrial/marine samples
Gordon Cook,Philippa L. Ascough,Clive Bonsall,W.D. Hamilton,N. Russell,Kerry L. Sayle,E. M. Scott,Jessica Bownes +7 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors describe the best approach towards achieving the most accurate calibrated age ranges, using the most appropriate ΔR and percentage marine diet estimates, and associated, realistic error terms on these values.
Journal ArticleDOI
Late Holocene great earthquakes in the eastern part of the Aleutian megathrust.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors used a Bayesian radiocarbon modeling approach to estimate the age and recurrence intervals of multiple great earthquakes for the Prince William Sound segment of the megathrust.
Journal ArticleDOI
Cutting a Gordian Knot: the Bronze Age of Southeast Asia: origins, timing and impact
TL;DR: Two conflicting theories put the introduction of bronze into Southeast Asia 1000 years apart, one (before China) at 2000 BC, the other at 1000 BC as discussed by the authors, both were drawn from radiocarbon dates, the first of pottery, the second of bone.
Journal ArticleDOI
Early Holocene vegetation and climate dynamics with particular reference to the 8.2 ka event: pollen and macrofossil evidence from a small lake in western Ireland
TL;DR: In this article, a detailed AMS 14C-dated, pollen record from Cooney Lough, a small lake in Co. Sligo, western Ireland, is presented.
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