Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon dates
Reads0
Chats0
TLDR
An overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4) are given.Abstract:
If radiocarbon measurements are to be used at all for chronological purposes, we have to use statistical methods for calibration. The most widely used method of calibration can be seen as a simple application of Bayesian statistics, which uses both the information from the new measurement and information from the 14C calibration curve. In most dating applications, however, we have larger numbers of 14C measurements and we wish to relate those to events in the past. Bayesian statistics provides a coherent framework in which such analysis can be performed and is becoming a core element in many 14C dating projects. This article gives an overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4). Many such models can be put together, in a modular fashion, from simple elements, with defined constraints and groupings. In other cases, the commonly used "uniform phase" models might not be appropriate, and ramped, exponential, or normal distributions of events might be more useful. When considering analyses of these kinds, it is useful to be able run simulations on synthetic data. Methods for performing such tests are discussed here along with other methods of diagnosing possible problems with statistical models of this kind.read more
Citations
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
Ancient herders enriched and restructured African grasslands.
Fiona Marshall,Rachel E.B. Reid,Steven T. Goldstein,Michael Storozum,Andrew Wreschnig,Lorraine Hu,Purity Kiura,Ruth Shahack-Gross,Stanley H. Ambrose +8 more
TL;DR: Chemical, isotopic and sedimentary analyses of soils at Pastoral Neolithic archaeological sites in Kenya demonstrate the long-term influence of nutrient enrichment on savannah environments that has accompanied pastoralist settlement over the past three millennia.
Journal ArticleDOI
Atlantic forcing of Western Mediterranean winter rain minima during the last 12,000 years
Christoph Zielhofer,William J. Fletcher,Steffen Mischke,Marc De Batist,Jennifer Campbell,Sébastien Joannin,Rik Tjallingii,Najib El Hamouti,Annett Junginger,Andreas Stele,Jens Bussmann,Birgit Schneider,Tobias Lauer,Katrin Spitzer,Michael Strupler,Thomas C. Brachert,Abdeslam Mikdad +16 more
TL;DR: In this article, a 19.63m long core from Lake Sidi Ali in the North African Middle Atlas, a transition zone of Atlantic, Western Mediterranean and Saharan air mass trajectories, was used to reconstruct Western Mediterranean hydro-climatic variability, seasonality and forcing mechanisms during the last 12,000 years.
Journal ArticleDOI
Realizing the potential of fluvial archives using robust OSL chronologies
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a statistical protocol for interpreting fluvial sediments using bootstrap re-sampling of the equivalent-dose data, incorporating uncertainty from age-model parameters and plausible variation in the input data.
Journal ArticleDOI
High-resolution late-glacial chronology for the Gerzensee lake record (Switzerland): δ18O correlation between a Gerzensee-stack and NGRIP
Ulrike J. van Raden,Daniele Colombaroli,Adrian Gilli,Jakob Schwander,Stefano M. Bernasconi,Jacqueline F. N. van Leeuwen,Markus Leuenberger,Ueli Eicher +7 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyzed oxygen isotope variations on bulk samples of shallow-water lake marl from Gerzensee, Switzerland, in order to evaluate major and minor climatic oscillations during the late-glacial.
Journal ArticleDOI
Middle Palaeolithic and Neolithic occupations around Mundafan Palaeolake, Saudi Arabia: Implications for climate change and human dispersals
Rémy Crassard,Michael D. Petraglia,Nick Drake,Paul S. Breeze,Bernard Gratuze,Abdullah Alsharekh,Mounir Arbach,Huw S. Groucutt,Lamya Khalidi,Nils Michelsen,Christian Julien Robin,Jérémie Schiettecatte +11 more
TL;DR: The first discoveries of Middle Palaeolithic and Neolithic archaeological sites in association with the Mundafan palaeolake are reported, indicating that humans repeatedly penetrated the ameliorated environments of the Rub’ al-Khali.
References
More filters
BookDOI
Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice
TL;DR: The Markov Chain Monte Carlo Implementation Results Summary and Discussion MEDICAL MONITORING Introduction Modelling Medical Monitoring Computing Posterior Distributions Forecasting Model Criticism Illustrative Application Discussion MCMC for NONLINEAR HIERARCHICAL MODELS.
Journal ArticleDOI
Extended 14C Data Base and Revised Calib 3.0 14C Age Calibration Program
Minze Stuiver,Paula J. Reimer +1 more
TL;DR: The age calibration program, CALIB (Stuiver & Reimer 1986), first made available in 1986 and subsequently modified in 1987 (revision 2.0 and 2.1), has been amended anew as mentioned in this paper.
Journal ArticleDOI
Sampling-Based Approaches to Calculating Marginal Densities
TL;DR: In this paper, three sampling-based approaches, namely stochastic substitution, the Gibbs sampler, and the sampling-importance-resampling algorithm, are compared and contrasted in relation to various joint probability structures frequently encountered in applications.
Journal Article
Sampling-based approaches to calculating marginal densities
TL;DR: Stochastic substitution, the Gibbs sampler, and the sampling-importance-resampling algorithm can be viewed as three alternative sampling- (or Monte Carlo-) based approaches to the calculation of numerical estimates of marginal probability distributions.
Journal ArticleDOI
Characterizing aquatic dissolved organic matter.
Minze Stuiver,Henry Polach +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, standards for reporting C-14 age determinations are discussed, and the statistical uncertainty (plus or minus one standard deviation) expresses counting errors, inaccuracies in voltage, pressure, temperature, dilution, and should include errors in C-13 ratios.
Related Papers (5)
IntCal13 and Marine13 radiocarbon age calibration curves 0-50,000 years cal BP
Paula J. Reimer,Edouard Bard,Alex Bayliss,J. Warren Beck,Paula G Blackwell,Christopher Bronk Ramsey,Caitlin E. Buck,Hai Cheng,R. Lawrence Edwards,Michael Friedrich,Pieter Meiert Grootes,Thomas P. Guilderson,Haflidi Haflidason,Irka Hajdas,Christine Hatté,Timothy J Heaton,Dirk L. Hoffmann,Alan G. Hogg,Konrad A Hughen,K Felix Kaiser,Bernd Kromer,Sturt W. Manning,Mu Niu,Ron W Reimer,David Richards,E. Marian Scott,John Southon,Richard A. Staff,Christian Turney,Johannes van der Plicht +29 more
IntCal13とMarine13放射性炭素年代較正曲線0-50,000年cal BP
Reimer Paula J,Bard Edouard,Bayliss Alex,Beck J Warren,Blackwell Paul G,Ramsey Christopher Bronk,Buck Caitlin E,Cheng Hai,Edwards R Lawrence,Friedrich Michael,Grootes Pieter M,Guilderson Thomas P,Haflidason Haflidi,Hajdas Irka,Hatte Christine,Heaton Timothy J,L Hoffmann Dirk,Hogg Alan G,Hughen Konrad A,Kaiser K Felix,Kromer Bernd,Manning Sturt W,Niu Mu,Reimer Ron W,Richards David A,Scott E Marian,Southon John R,Staff Richard A,Turney Christian S M,Van Der Plicht Johannes +29 more