Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon dates
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TLDR
An overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4) are given.Abstract:
If radiocarbon measurements are to be used at all for chronological purposes, we have to use statistical methods for calibration. The most widely used method of calibration can be seen as a simple application of Bayesian statistics, which uses both the information from the new measurement and information from the 14C calibration curve. In most dating applications, however, we have larger numbers of 14C measurements and we wish to relate those to events in the past. Bayesian statistics provides a coherent framework in which such analysis can be performed and is becoming a core element in many 14C dating projects. This article gives an overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4). Many such models can be put together, in a modular fashion, from simple elements, with defined constraints and groupings. In other cases, the commonly used "uniform phase" models might not be appropriate, and ramped, exponential, or normal distributions of events might be more useful. When considering analyses of these kinds, it is useful to be able run simulations on synthetic data. Methods for performing such tests are discussed here along with other methods of diagnosing possible problems with statistical models of this kind.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
A Bayesian chronology for early domestic horse use in the Eastern Steppe
William Timothy Treal Taylor,Burentogtokh Jargalan,K. Bryce Lowry,Julia Clark,Tumurbaatar Tuvshinjargal,Jamsranjav Bayarsaikhan +5 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a Bayesian chronological model for the initiation of domestic horse sacrifice at Deer Stone-Khirigsuur (DSK) culture sites in Mongolia and reveal the rapid spread of horse ritual over a large portion of the Eastern Steppe circa 1200 BCE.
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First records of winter sea ice concentration in the southwest Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean
Alexander J. Ferry,Xavier Crosta,Patrick G. Quilty,David Fink,William R Howard,Leanne K. Armand +5 more
TL;DR: The authors used a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) to provide the first winter sea ice concentration record from two sediment cores located within the southwest Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean.
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Re-evaluating the resource potential of lomas fog oasis environments for Preceramic hunter–gatherers under past ENSO modes on the south coast of Peru
David Beresford-Jones,Alexander G. Pullen,Oliver Q. Whaley,Justin Moat,George Chauca,Lauren Cadwallader,Susana Arce,Alfonso Orellana,Carmela Alarcón,Manuel Gorriti,Patricia K. Maita,Fraser Sturt,Agathe Dupeyron,Oliver Huaman,Kevin Lane,Charles French +15 more
TL;DR: The role of climate change since the Late Pleistocene in determining productivity and extent of past lomas ecosystems has been much debated as discussed by the authors, and the resource potential of the poorly studied lomas of the south coast of Peru during the long Middle Pre-ceramic period (c. 8000-4500 BP): a period critical in the transition to agriculture, the onset of modern El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions, and eustatic sea level rise and stabilisation and beach progradation.
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Late Pleistocene proboscidean population dynamics in the North American Midcontinent
Chris Widga,Stacey Lengyel,Jeffrey J. Saunders,Gregory W. L. Hodgins,J. Douglas Walker,Alan D. Wanamaker +5 more
TL;DR: Large-scale, collections-based, chronological and taphonomic analyses of midwestern Proboscidea suggest divergent population histories in mammoths and mastodons after the Last Glacial Maximum, suggesting this pattern is due to the collapse of trophic controls on proboscidean populations prior to the LGM and a subsequent system-wide shift from top-down to bottom-up regulatory mechanisms in Proboscidesa.
Journal ArticleDOI
Rapid settlement of Majuro Atoll, central Pacific, following its emergence at 2000 years CalBP
TL;DR: In this paper, the results of geomorphological and archaeological surveys, combined with calibrated radiocarbon age dates, at Majuro Atoll, Marshall Islands, central Pacific, reveal that the emergence of the island, triggered by a fall in sea level, was quickly followed by human settlement.
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