Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon dates
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TLDR
An overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4) are given.Abstract:
If radiocarbon measurements are to be used at all for chronological purposes, we have to use statistical methods for calibration. The most widely used method of calibration can be seen as a simple application of Bayesian statistics, which uses both the information from the new measurement and information from the 14C calibration curve. In most dating applications, however, we have larger numbers of 14C measurements and we wish to relate those to events in the past. Bayesian statistics provides a coherent framework in which such analysis can be performed and is becoming a core element in many 14C dating projects. This article gives an overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4). Many such models can be put together, in a modular fashion, from simple elements, with defined constraints and groupings. In other cases, the commonly used "uniform phase" models might not be appropriate, and ramped, exponential, or normal distributions of events might be more useful. When considering analyses of these kinds, it is useful to be able run simulations on synthetic data. Methods for performing such tests are discussed here along with other methods of diagnosing possible problems with statistical models of this kind.read more
Citations
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Agriculture, population growth, and statistical analysis of the radiocarbon record.
TL;DR: It is found that, during most of the Holocene, human populations worldwide grew at a long-term annual rate of 0.04%.
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Timing of archaic hominin occupation of Denisova Cave in southern Siberia
Zenobia Jacobs,Bo Li,Bo Li,Michael V. Shunkov,M.B. Kozlikin,M.B. Kozlikin,Nataliya S. Bolikhovskaya,Nataliya S. Bolikhovskaya,Alexander Agadjanian,Vladimir A. Uliyanov,Vladimir A. Uliyanov,Sergei K. Vasiliev,Sergei K. Vasiliev,Kieran O'Gorman,Anatoly P. Derevianko,Anatoly P. Derevianko,Richard G. Roberts,Richard G. Roberts +17 more
TL;DR: The stratigraphic sequences in Denisova Cave are described, a chronology for the Pleistocene deposits and associated remains from optical dating of the cave sediments are established, and the environmental context of hominin occupation of the site is reconstructed from around 300,000 to 20,000 years ago.
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Flood stratigraphies in lake sediments: A review
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Re-anchoring the late Pleistocene tephrochronology of New Zealand based on concordant radiocarbon ages and combined 238U/230Th disequilibrium and (U–Th)/He zircon ages
Martin Danišík,Martin Danišík,Phil Shane,Axel K. Schmitt,Alan G. Hogg,Guaciara M. Santos,S. Storm,Noreen J. Evans,Noreen J. Evans,L. Keith Fifield,Jan M. Lindsay +10 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors applied combined 238U/230Th disequilibrium and (U-Th)/He dating of zircon from Rotoiti and Earthquake Flat (EQF) deposits, and obtained overlapping ages of 45.1(7)±3.3 and 47.5±2.9, respectively.
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Age estimates for hominin fossils and the onset of the Upper Palaeolithic at Denisova Cave
Katerina Douka,Katerina Douka,Viviane Slon,Zenobia Jacobs,Zenobia Jacobs,Christopher Bronk Ramsey,Michael V. Shunkov,Michael V. Shunkov,Anatoly P. Derevianko,Anatoly P. Derevianko,Fabrizio Mafessoni,M.B. Kozlikin,Bo Li,Bo Li,Rainer Grün,Daniel Comeskey,Thibaut Devièse,Samantha Brown,Bence Viola,Leslie Kinsley,Michael Buckley,Matthias Meyer,Richard G. Roberts,Richard G. Roberts,Svante Pääbo,Janet Kelso,Thomas Higham +26 more
TL;DR: 50 radiocarbon determinations from the late Middle and Upper Palaeolithic layers of Denisova Cave are presented and a Bayesian age modelling approach is applied that combines chronometric, stratigraphic and genetic data to calculate probabilistically the age of the human fossils at the site.
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