Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon dates
TLDR
An overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4) are given.Abstract:
If radiocarbon measurements are to be used at all for chronological purposes, we have to use statistical methods for calibration. The most widely used method of calibration can be seen as a simple application of Bayesian statistics, which uses both the information from the new measurement and information from the 14C calibration curve. In most dating applications, however, we have larger numbers of 14C measurements and we wish to relate those to events in the past. Bayesian statistics provides a coherent framework in which such analysis can be performed and is becoming a core element in many 14C dating projects. This article gives an overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4). Many such models can be put together, in a modular fashion, from simple elements, with defined constraints and groupings. In other cases, the commonly used "uniform phase" models might not be appropriate, and ramped, exponential, or normal distributions of events might be more useful. When considering analyses of these kinds, it is useful to be able run simulations on synthetic data. Methods for performing such tests are discussed here along with other methods of diagnosing possible problems with statistical models of this kind.read more
Citations
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Time-averaging and stratigraphic resolution in death assemblages and holocene deposits: sydney harbour's molluscan record
J. Gabriel Dominguez,Matthew A. Kosnik,Andrew P. Allen,Quan Hua,Dorrit E. Jacob,Darrell S. Kaufman,Katherine Whitacre +6 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors used radiocarbon-calibrated amino acid racemization ages from 173 Fulvia tenuicostata shells collected from Sydney Harbour (NSW, Australia) to quantify time-averaging in surficial and excavated death assemblages.
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Dating the end of the Greek Bronze Age: a robust radiocarbon-based chronology from Assiros Toumba.
TL;DR: The absolute dates determined for Assiros through Bayesian modelling are both consistent and unexpected, since they are systematically earlier than the conventional chronologies of southern Greece by between 70 and 100 years.
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Evidence for Social and Cultural Change in Central Vanuatu Between 3000 and 2000 BP: Comparing Funerary and Dietary Patterns of the First and Later Generations at Teouma, Efate
TL;DR: In the southern Melanesian islands of Vanuatu, the archaeological record indicates significant shifts in aspects such as patterns of settlement and mobility, landscape use, and pottery production, some 500 years (2500 BP) after initial colonization as mentioned in this paper.
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Timing of the first drainage of the Baltic Ice Lake synchronous with the onset of Greenland Stadial 1
Francesco Muschitiello,James Lea,Sarah L. Greenwood,Faezeh M. Nick,Faezeh M. Nick,Lars Brunnberg,Alison MacLeod,Barbara Wohlfarth +7 more
TL;DR: In this paper, a composite 1257-year long varve chronology from south-eastern Sweden spanning the regional late Allerod-late Younger Dryas pollen zone was reported.
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Stable isotope evidence of late MIS 3 to middle Holocene palaeoenvironments from Sehonghong Rockshelter, eastern Lesotho
TL;DR: In this article, stable isotopes in soil organic matter from the sedimentary sequence and in faunal tooth enamel from the newly dated lower strata were used to establish evidence for human occupation spanning Marine Isotope Stage 3 through the late Holocene.
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