Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon dates
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An overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4) are given.Abstract:
If radiocarbon measurements are to be used at all for chronological purposes, we have to use statistical methods for calibration. The most widely used method of calibration can be seen as a simple application of Bayesian statistics, which uses both the information from the new measurement and information from the 14C calibration curve. In most dating applications, however, we have larger numbers of 14C measurements and we wish to relate those to events in the past. Bayesian statistics provides a coherent framework in which such analysis can be performed and is becoming a core element in many 14C dating projects. This article gives an overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4). Many such models can be put together, in a modular fashion, from simple elements, with defined constraints and groupings. In other cases, the commonly used "uniform phase" models might not be appropriate, and ramped, exponential, or normal distributions of events might be more useful. When considering analyses of these kinds, it is useful to be able run simulations on synthetic data. Methods for performing such tests are discussed here along with other methods of diagnosing possible problems with statistical models of this kind.read more
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Journal ArticleDOI
Absolute Dating of the Late Bronze to Iron Age Transition and the Appearance of Philistine Culture in Qubur el-Walaydah, Southern Levant
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a multi-proxy assessment comparing 19 sub-centennially resolved late Holocene proxy records, covering the period 300-1900 AD, from seven Icelandic marine and lacustrine core sites.
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Late Holocene evolution of a coupled, mud-dominated delta plain–chenier plain system, coastal Louisiana, USA
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present new geomorphological, marine geophysical and geochronological data from the northernmost sector of the last British-Irish Ice Sheet (north of 59.5°N) to address several long-standing scientific issues including the dominance of a locally sourced "Shetland ice cap" vs an invasive Fennoscandian Ice Sheet.
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Lagoonal settlements and relative sea level during Bronze Age in Northern Adriatic: Geoarchaeological evidence and paleogeographic constraints
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors analyzed the published information and collected new stratigraphic and geochronological data in five major sites where index points related to past sea-level are recorded.
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