Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon dates
TLDR
An overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4) are given.Abstract:
If radiocarbon measurements are to be used at all for chronological purposes, we have to use statistical methods for calibration. The most widely used method of calibration can be seen as a simple application of Bayesian statistics, which uses both the information from the new measurement and information from the 14C calibration curve. In most dating applications, however, we have larger numbers of 14C measurements and we wish to relate those to events in the past. Bayesian statistics provides a coherent framework in which such analysis can be performed and is becoming a core element in many 14C dating projects. This article gives an overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4). Many such models can be put together, in a modular fashion, from simple elements, with defined constraints and groupings. In other cases, the commonly used "uniform phase" models might not be appropriate, and ramped, exponential, or normal distributions of events might be more useful. When considering analyses of these kinds, it is useful to be able run simulations on synthetic data. Methods for performing such tests are discussed here along with other methods of diagnosing possible problems with statistical models of this kind.read more
Citations
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
Instability of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream over the last 45,000 years.
Nicolaj K. Larsen,Nicolaj K. Larsen,Laura B. Levy,Anders E. Carlson,Christo Buizert,Jesper V. Olsen,Astrid Strunk,Anders A. Bjørk,Anders A. Bjørk,Daniel S. Skov +9 more
TL;DR: It is shown that the NEGIS was smaller than present for approximately half of the last ~45 kyr and is susceptible to subtle changes in climate, which has implications for future stability of this ice stream.
Journal ArticleDOI
Wintertime stress, nursing, and lead exposure in Neanderthal children
Tanya M. Smith,Christine Austin,Daniel R. Green,Daniel R. Green,Renaud Joannes-Boyau,Shara E. Bailey,Dani Dumitriu,Stewart Fallon,Rainer Grün,Rainer Grün,Hannah F. James,Marie-Hélène Moncel,Ian S. Williams,Rachel Wood,Manish Arora +14 more
TL;DR: The Neanderthals inhabited cooler and more seasonal periods than the modern human, evincing childhood developmental stress during wintertime, and were exposed to lead at least twice during the deep winter and/or early spring.
Journal ArticleDOI
Reevaluating human colonization of the Caribbean using chronometric hygiene and Bayesian modeling.
Matthew Napolitano,Robert J. DiNapoli,Jessica H. Stone,Maureece J. Levin,Nicholas P. Jew,Brian G. Lane,John T. O’Connor,Scott M. Fitzpatrick +7 more
TL;DR: This article used radiocarbon determinations to examine patterns of initial settlement in the Caribbean and found that the region was settled in two major population dispersals that likely originated from South America, and that colonists reached islands in the northern Antilles before the southern islands.
Journal ArticleDOI
Lake and catchment response to Holocene environmental change: spatial variability along a climate gradient in southwest Greenland
TL;DR: In this article, Radiocarbon-dated sediment sequences (covering ~11,200-8,300 cal year) from paired lakes at the coast and the head of the fjord were analysed for lithostratigraphic variables (organic-matter content, bulk density, Ti, Ca).
Journal ArticleDOI
Holocene explosive eruptions in the Rungwe Volcanic Province, Tanzania
Karen Fontijn,Gerald Ernst,Marlina Elburg,David Williamson,Edister A Abdallah,Shimba Kwelwa,Evelyne Mbede,Patric Jacobs +7 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors reconstructed the Holocene explosive eruptive record of Rungwe and Ngozi volcanoes based on detailed stratigraphic field evidence combined with whole-rock major and trace element analyses of tephra samples.
References
More filters
BookDOI
Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice
TL;DR: The Markov Chain Monte Carlo Implementation Results Summary and Discussion MEDICAL MONITORING Introduction Modelling Medical Monitoring Computing Posterior Distributions Forecasting Model Criticism Illustrative Application Discussion MCMC for NONLINEAR HIERARCHICAL MODELS.
Journal ArticleDOI
Extended 14C Data Base and Revised Calib 3.0 14C Age Calibration Program
Minze Stuiver,Paula J. Reimer +1 more
TL;DR: The age calibration program, CALIB (Stuiver & Reimer 1986), first made available in 1986 and subsequently modified in 1987 (revision 2.0 and 2.1), has been amended anew as mentioned in this paper.
Journal ArticleDOI
Sampling-Based Approaches to Calculating Marginal Densities
TL;DR: In this paper, three sampling-based approaches, namely stochastic substitution, the Gibbs sampler, and the sampling-importance-resampling algorithm, are compared and contrasted in relation to various joint probability structures frequently encountered in applications.
Journal Article
Sampling-based approaches to calculating marginal densities
TL;DR: Stochastic substitution, the Gibbs sampler, and the sampling-importance-resampling algorithm can be viewed as three alternative sampling- (or Monte Carlo-) based approaches to the calculation of numerical estimates of marginal probability distributions.
Journal ArticleDOI
Characterizing aquatic dissolved organic matter.
Minze Stuiver,Henry Polach +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, standards for reporting C-14 age determinations are discussed, and the statistical uncertainty (plus or minus one standard deviation) expresses counting errors, inaccuracies in voltage, pressure, temperature, dilution, and should include errors in C-13 ratios.
Related Papers (5)
IntCal13 and Marine13 radiocarbon age calibration curves 0-50,000 years cal BP
Paula J. Reimer,Edouard Bard,Alex Bayliss,J. Warren Beck,Paula G Blackwell,Christopher Bronk Ramsey,Caitlin E. Buck,Hai Cheng,R. Lawrence Edwards,Michael Friedrich,Pieter Meiert Grootes,Thomas P. Guilderson,Haflidi Haflidason,Irka Hajdas,Christine Hatté,Timothy J Heaton,Dirk L. Hoffmann,Alan G. Hogg,Konrad A Hughen,K Felix Kaiser,Bernd Kromer,Sturt W. Manning,Mu Niu,Ron W Reimer,David Richards,E. Marian Scott,John Southon,Richard A. Staff,Christian Turney,Johannes van der Plicht +29 more
IntCal13とMarine13放射性炭素年代較正曲線0-50,000年cal BP
Reimer Paula J,Bard Edouard,Bayliss Alex,Beck J Warren,Blackwell Paul G,Ramsey Christopher Bronk,Buck Caitlin E,Cheng Hai,Edwards R Lawrence,Friedrich Michael,Grootes Pieter M,Guilderson Thomas P,Haflidason Haflidi,Hajdas Irka,Hatte Christine,Heaton Timothy J,L Hoffmann Dirk,Hogg Alan G,Hughen Konrad A,Kaiser K Felix,Kromer Bernd,Manning Sturt W,Niu Mu,Reimer Ron W,Richards David A,Scott E Marian,Southon John R,Staff Richard A,Turney Christian S M,Van Der Plicht Johannes +29 more