Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon dates
TLDR
An overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4) are given.Abstract:
If radiocarbon measurements are to be used at all for chronological purposes, we have to use statistical methods for calibration. The most widely used method of calibration can be seen as a simple application of Bayesian statistics, which uses both the information from the new measurement and information from the 14C calibration curve. In most dating applications, however, we have larger numbers of 14C measurements and we wish to relate those to events in the past. Bayesian statistics provides a coherent framework in which such analysis can be performed and is becoming a core element in many 14C dating projects. This article gives an overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4). Many such models can be put together, in a modular fashion, from simple elements, with defined constraints and groupings. In other cases, the commonly used "uniform phase" models might not be appropriate, and ramped, exponential, or normal distributions of events might be more useful. When considering analyses of these kinds, it is useful to be able run simulations on synthetic data. Methods for performing such tests are discussed here along with other methods of diagnosing possible problems with statistical models of this kind.read more
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Between prehistory and history: the archaeological detection of social change among the Picts
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Philippe De Smedt,Marc Van Meirvenne,Neil S. Davies,Machteld Bats,Timothy Saey,Jeroen De Reu,Eef Meerschman,Vanessa Gelorini,Ann Zwertvaegher,Marc Antrop,Jean Bourgeois,Philippe De Maeyer,Peter Finke,Jacques Verniers,Philippe Crombé +14 more
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On the Dating of the Folsom Complex and its Correlation with the Younger Dryas, the End of Clovis, and Megafaunal Extinction
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Fishing in life and death: Pleistocene fish-hooks from a burial context on Alor Island, Indonesia
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