The future of food from the sea.
Christopher Costello,Ling Cao,Stefan Gelcich,Miguel A. Cisneros-Mata,Christopher M. Free,Halley E. Froehlich,Christopher D. Golden,Gakushi Ishimura,Jason Maier,Ilan Macadam-Somer,Tracey Mangin,Michael C. Melnychuk,Masanori Miyahara,Carryn L De Moor,Rosamond L. Naylor,Linda Nøstbakken,Elena Ojea,Erin O’Reilly,Ana M. Parma,Andrew J. Plantinga,Shakuntala H. Thilsted,Jane Lubchenco +21 more
TLDR
Modelled supply curves show that, with policy reform and technological innovation, the production of food from the sea may increase sustainably, perhaps supplying 25% of the increase in demand for meat products by 2050.Abstract:
Global food demand is rising, and serious questions remain about whether supply can increase sustainably1 Land-based expansion is possible but may exacerbate climate change and biodiversity loss, and compromise the delivery of other ecosystem services2–6 As food from the sea represents only 17% of the current production of edible meat, we ask how much food we can expect the ocean to sustainably produce by 2050 Here we examine the main food-producing sectors in the ocean—wild fisheries, finfish mariculture and bivalve mariculture—to estimate ‘sustainable supply curves’ that account for ecological, economic, regulatory and technological constraints We overlay these supply curves with demand scenarios to estimate future seafood production We find that under our estimated demand shifts and supply scenarios (which account for policy reform and technology improvements), edible food from the sea could increase by 21–44 million tonnes by 2050, a 36–74% increase compared to current yields This represents 12–25% of the estimated increase in all meat needed to feed 98 billion people by 2050 Increases in all three sectors are likely, but are most pronounced for mariculture Whether these production potentials are realized sustainably will depend on factors such as policy reforms, technological innovation and the extent of future shifts in demand Modelled supply curves show that, with policy reform and technological innovation, the production of food from the sea may increase sustainably, perhaps supplying 25% of the increase in demand for meat products by 2050read more
Citations
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A 20-year retrospective review of global aquaculture.
Rosamond L. Naylor,Ronald W. Hardy,Alejandro H. Buschmann,Simon R. Bush,Ling Cao,Dane H. Klinger,Dane H. Klinger,David C. Little,Jane Lubchenco,Sandra E. Shumway,Max Troell,Max Troell +11 more
TL;DR: A review of the development of aquaculture from 1997 to 2017 can be found in this article, where the authors highlight the integration of aqua-culture in the global food system and the potential for molluscs and seaweed to support global nutritional security.
Journal ArticleDOI
Protecting the global ocean for biodiversity, food and climate
Enric Sala,Juan Mayorga,Darcy Bradley,Reniel B. Cabral,Trisha B. Atwood,Arnaud Auber,William W. L. Cheung,Christopher Costello,Francesco Ferretti,Alan M. Friedlander,Steven D. Gaines,Cristina Garilao,Whitney Goodell,Benjamin S. Halpern,A.L. Hinson,Kristin Kaschner,Kathleen Kesner-Reyes,Fabien Leprieur,Jennifer McGowan,Lance Morgan,David Mouillot,Juliano Palacios-Abrantes,Hugh P. Possingham,Kristin D. Rechberger,Boris Worm,Jane Lubchenco +25 more
TL;DR: In this paper, a conservation planning framework is developed to prioritize highly protected marine protected areas in places that would result in multiple benefits today and in the future, by protecting biodiversity, boosting the yield of fisheries and securing marine carbon stocks that are at risk from human activities.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Blue Acceleration: The Trajectory of Human Expansion into the Ocean
Jean-Baptiste Jouffray,Jean-Baptiste Jouffray,Robert Blasiak,Albert V. Norström,Henrik Österblom,Magnus Nyström +5 more
TL;DR: The blue acceleration as mentioned in this paper describes a race among diverse and often competing interests for ocean food, material, and space, and explores what this new reality means for the global ocean and how to steer it in a sustainable and equitable way.
Journal ArticleDOI
Our future in the Anthropocene biosphere.
Carl Folke,Carl Folke,Stephen Polasky,Johan Rockström,Victor Galaz,Frances Westley,Michèle Lamont,Marten Scheffer,Henrik Österblom,Stephen R. Carpenter,F. Stuart Chapin,Karen C. Seto,Elke U. Weber,Beatrice Crona,Beatrice Crona,Gretchen C. Daily,Partha Dasgupta,Owen Gaffney,Owen Gaffney,Line Gordon,Holger Hoff,Simon A. Levin,Jane Lubchenco,Will Steffen,Will Steffen,Brian Walker +25 more
TL;DR: A systemic overview of the current situation where people and nature are dynamically intertwined and embedded in the biosphere, placing shocks and extreme events as part of this dynamic is provided in this paper.
Journal ArticleDOI
Aquatic foods to nourish nations
Christopher D. Golden,J. Zachary Koehn,Alon Shepon,Alon Shepon,Alon Shepon,Simone Passarelli,Christopher M. Free,Daniel F. Viana,Daniel F. Viana,Holger Matthey,Jacob G. Eurich,Jessica A. Gephart,Etienne Fluet-Chouinard,Elizabeth A. Nyboer,Abigail J. Lynch,Marian Kjellevold,Sabri Bromage,Pierre Charlebois,Manuel Barange,Stefania Vannuccini,Ling Cao,Kristin M. Kleisner,Eric B. Rimm,Goodarz Danaei,Camille DeSisto,Heather Kelahan,Kathryn J. Fiorella,David C. Little,Edward H. Allison,Jessica Fanzo,Shakuntala H. Thilsted +30 more
TL;DR: In this article, a model that unifies terrestrial foods with nearly 3,000 aquatic foods to understand the future impact of aquatic foods on human nutrition is presented. And the authors show that an increase in aquatic animal-source food production could reduce the inadequate intake of most nutrients.
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