International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

About: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis is a nonprofit organization based out in Laxenburg, Austria. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Population & Greenhouse gas. The organization has 1369 authors who have published 5075 publications receiving 280467 citations. The organization is also known as: IIASA.

Climate Change and Wildfires in Russia

Abstract: Russia for 1998-2010 accounted for 8.2 ± 0.8 × 10 6 ha, with about twothirds of wildfires occurring on forest lands and half on the forested lands. The average annual fire carbon balance during the above period was 121 ± 28 Tg C yr -1 , including 92 ± 18 Tg C yr -1 emitted from the forested land. The forecasts based on the General Circulation Models suggest the dramatic acceleration of fire regimes by the end of the 21st century. Taking into account the increase in the dryness of the climate and the thawing of permafrost, this will likely lead to a dramatic loss of forested area and the impoverishment of the forest cover over a major part of the forest zone. A transition to adaptive forestry would allow a substantial decrease of the expected losses. This paper takes a brief look at the general principals of adapting forest fire protection system to climate change, which is considered an integral part of the transition to sustainable forest management in Russia.

Full Carbon Account for Russia

Abstract: The Forestry Project (FOR) at IIASA has produced a full carbon account (FCA) for Russia for 1990, together with scenarios for 2010. Currently, there are rather big question marks regarding the existing carbon accounts for Russia, and Russia is critical to the global carbon balance due to its size. IIASA is in a position to perform solid analysis of Russia because of the databases that the Institute has built over the years. FOR based this work on a comprehensive geographic information system comprising georeferenced descriptions of the environment and land of Russia, which in turn are based on a number of thematic, digitized maps and databases. For the Russian energy sector and other industrial sectors (except the forest industry), the project used emissions estimates from the recent IIASA study "Global Energy Perspectives" (1998). The project carried out a separate substudy for the Russian forest industry sector. According to FOR's estimate, the total fluxes (including energy and industry sectors) in Russia were a net source of 527 teragrams of carbon (Tg C) in 1990. To illustrate the possible development of the carbon pools and fluxes over the next 10 years, FOR developed three different scenarios for the period 1990-2010, reflecting different assumptions regarding Russia's GDP growth. According to these scenarios, Russia will continue to be a net source of carbon to the atmosphere with 156-385 Tg C in 2010, including the emissions from energy and other industrial sectors. However, analysis of the FCA also shows considerable uncertainties involved in the carbon accounting. These uncertainties exceed the calculated changes in the full flux balance for the period 1990-2010. At present, this raises grave questions regarding the reliability of any accounting system used to measure terrestrial ecosystems for compliance with the Kyoto Protocol.

An estimate of the terrestrial carbon budget of Russia using inventory based, eddy covariance and inversion methods

Abstract: . We determine the net land to atmosphere flux of carbon in Russia, including Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan, using inventory-based, eddy covariance, and inversion methods. Our high boundary estimate is −342 Tg C yr−1 from the eddy covariance method, and this is close to the upper bounds of the inventory-based Land Ecosystem Assessment and inverse models estimates. A lower boundary estimate is provided at −1350 Tg C yr−1 from the inversion models. The average of the three methods is −613.5 Tg C yr−1. The methane emission is estimated separately at 41.4 Tg C yr−1. These three methods agree well within their respective error bounds. There is thus good consistency between bottom-up and top-down methods. The forests of Russia primarily cause the net atmosphere to land flux (−692 Tg C yr−1 from the LEA. It remains however remarkable that the three methods provide such close estimates (−615, −662, −554 Tg C yr–1) for net biome production (NBP), given the inherent uncertainties in all of the approaches. The lack of recent forest inventories, the few eddy covariance sites and associated uncertainty with upscaling and undersampling of concentrations for the inversions are among the prime causes of the uncertainty. The dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) suggest a much lower uptake at −91 Tg C yr−1, and we argue that this is caused by a high estimate of heterotrophic respiration compared to other methods.

An integrated approach to energy sustainability

Abstract: Policies to protect the global climate offer an effective entry point for achieving society's multiple objectives for energy sustainability.

Impacts of COVID-19 and fiscal stimuli on global emissions and the Paris Agreement

Abstract: The global economy is facing a serious recession due to COVID-19, with implications for CO2 emissions. Here, using a global adaptive multiregional input–output model and scenarios of lockdown and fiscal counter measures, we show that global emissions from economic sectors will decrease by 3.9 to 5.6% in 5 years (2020 to 2024) compared with a no-pandemic baseline scenario (business as usual for economic growth and carbon intensity decline). Global economic interdependency via supply chains means that blocking one country’s economic activities causes the emissions of other countries to decrease even without lockdown policies. Supply-chain effects contributed 90.1% of emissions decline from power production in 2020 but only 13.6% of transport sector reductions. Simulations of follow-up fiscal stimuli in 41 major countries increase global 5-yr emissions by −6.6 to 23.2 Gt (−4.7 to 16.4%), depending on the strength and structure of incentives. Therefore, smart policy is needed to turn pandemic-related emission declines into firm climate action.