Showing papers by "International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis published in 2009"

Asian emissions in 2006 for the NASA INTEX-B mission

Abstract: . A new inventory of air pollutant emissions in Asia in the year 2006 is developed to support the Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment-Phase B (INTEX-B) funded by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Emissions are estimated for all major anthropogenic sources, excluding biomass burning. We estimate total Asian anthropogenic emissions in the year 2006 as follows: 47.1 Tg SO2, 36.7 Tg NOx, 298.2 Tg CO, 54.6 Tg NMVOC, 29.2 Tg PM10, 22.2 Tg PM2.5, 2.97 Tg BC, and 6.57 Tg OC. We emphasize emissions from China because they dominate the Asia pollutant outflow to the Pacific and the increase of emissions from China since 2000 is of great concern. We have implemented a series of improved methodologies to gain a better understanding of emissions from China, including a detailed technology-based approach, a dynamic methodology representing rapid technology renewal, critical examination of energy statistics, and a new scheme of NMVOC speciation for model-ready emissions. We estimate China's anthropogenic emissions in the year 2006 to be as follows: 31.0 Tg SO2, 20.8 Tg NOx, 166.9 Tg CO, 23.2 Tg NMVOC, 18.2 Tg PM10, 13.3 Tg PM2.5, 1.8 Tg BC, and 3.2 Tg OC. We have also estimated 2001 emissions for China using the same methodology and found that all species show an increasing trend during 2001–2006: 36% increase for SO2, 55% for NOx, 18% for CO, 29% for VOC, 13% for PM10, and 14% for PM2.5, BC, and OC. Emissions are gridded at a resolution of 30 min×30 min and can be accessed at our web site ( http://mic.greenresource.cn/intex-b2006 ).

Evaluation of black carbon estimations in global aerosol models

Abstract: . We evaluate black carbon (BC) model predictions from the AeroCom model intercomparison project by considering the diversity among year 2000 model simulations and comparing model predictions with available measurements. These model-measurement intercomparisons include BC surface and aircraft concentrations, aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) retrievals from AERONET and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and BC column estimations based on AERONET. In regions other than Asia, most models are biased high compared to surface concentration measurements. However compared with (column) AAOD or BC burden retreivals, the models are generally biased low. The average ratio of model to retrieved AAOD is less than 0.7 in South American and 0.6 in African biomass burning regions; both of these regions lack surface concentration measurements. In Asia the average model to observed ratio is 0.7 for AAOD and 0.5 for BC surface concentrations. Compared with aircraft measurements over the Americas at latitudes between 0 and 50N, the average model is a factor of 8 larger than observed, and most models exceed the measured BC standard deviation in the mid to upper troposphere. At higher latitudes the average model to aircraft BC ratio is 0.4 and models underestimate the observed BC loading in the lower and middle troposphere associated with springtime Arctic haze. Low model bias for AAOD but overestimation of surface and upper atmospheric BC concentrations at lower latitudes suggests that most models are underestimating BC absorption and should improve estimates for refractive index, particle size, and optical effects of BC coating. Retrieval uncertainties and/or differences with model diagnostic treatment may also contribute to the model-measurement disparity. Largest AeroCom model diversity occurred in northern Eurasia and the remote Arctic, regions influenced by anthropogenic sources. Changing emissions, aging, removal, or optical properties within a single model generated a smaller change in model predictions than the range represented by the full set of AeroCom models. Upper tropospheric concentrations of BC mass from the aircraft measurements are suggested to provide a unique new benchmark to test scavenging and vertical dispersion of BC in global models.

Genetic Discontinuity Between Local Hunter-Gatherers and Central Europe’s First Farmers

Abstract: After the domestication of animals and crops in the Near East some 11,000 years ago, farming had reached much of central Europe by 7500 years before the present. The extent to which these early European farmers were immigrants or descendants of resident hunter-gatherers who had adopted farming has been widely debated. We compared new mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences from late European hunter-gatherer skeletons with those from early farmers and from modern Europeans. We find large genetic differences between all three groups that cannot be explained by population continuity alone. Most (82%) of the ancient hunter-gatherers share mtDNA types that are relatively rare in central Europeans today. Together, these analyses provide persuasive evidence that the first farmers were not the descendants of local hunter-gatherers but immigrated into central Europe at the onset of the Neolithic.

Fixing a critical climate accounting error

Abstract: Rules for applying the Kyoto Protocol and national cap-and-trade laws contain a major, but fixable, carbon accounting flaw in assessing bioenergy.

mtDNA Data Indicate a Single Origin for Dogs South of Yangtze River, Less Than 16,300 Years Ago, from Numerous Wolves

Abstract: There is no generally accepted picture of where, when, and how the domestic dog originated. Previous studies of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) have failed to establish the time and precise place of origin because of lack of phylogenetic resolution in the so far studied control region (CR), and inadequate sampling. We therefore analyzed entire mitochondrial genomes for 169 dogs to obtain maximal phylogenetic resolution and the CR for 1,543 dogs across the Old World for a comprehensive picture of geographical diversity. Hereby, a detailed picture of the origins of the dog can for the first time be suggested. We obtained evidence that the dog has a single origin in time and space and an estimation of the time of origin, number of founders, and approximate region, which also gives potential clues about the human culture involved. The analyses showed that dogs universally share a common homogenous gene pool containing 10 major haplogroups. However, the full range of genetic diversity, all 10 haplogroups, was found only in southeastern Asia south of Yangtze River, and diversity decreased following a gradient across Eurasia, through seven haplogroups in Central China and five in North China and Southwest (SW)Asia, down to only four haplogroups in Europe. The mean sequence distance to ancestral haplotypes indicates an origin 5,400–16,300 years ago (ya) from at least 51 female wolf founders. These results indicate that the domestic dog originated in southern China less than 16,300 ya, from several hundred wolves. The place and time coincide approximately with the origin of rice agriculture, suggesting that the dogs may have originated among sedentary hunter-gatherers or early farmers, and the numerous founders indicate that wolf taming was an important culture trait.

General overview: European Integrated project on Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality interactions (EUCAARI) - integrating aerosol research from nano to global scales

Abstract: In this paper we describe and summarize the main achievements of the European Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality Interactions project (EUCAARI). EUCAARI started on 1 January 2007 and ended on 31 December 2010 leaving a rich legacy including: (a) a comprehensive database with a year of observations of the physical, chemical and optical properties of aerosol particles over Europe, (b) comprehensive aerosol measurements in four developing countries, (c) a database of airborne measurements of aerosols and clouds over Europe during May 2008, (d) comprehensive modeling tools to study aerosol processes fron nano to global scale and their effects on climate and air quality. In addition a new Pan-European aerosol emissions inventory was developed and evaluated, a new cluster spectrometer was built and tested in the field and several new aerosol parameterizations and computations modules for chemical transport and global climate models were developed and evaluated. These achievements and related studies have substantially improved our understanding and reduced the uncertainties of aerosol radiative forcing and air quality-climate interactions. The EUCAARI results can be utilized in European and global environmental policy to assess the aerosol impacts and the corresponding abatement strategies.

Generalized models reveal stabilizing factors in food webs.

Abstract: Insights into what stabilizes natural food webs have always been limited by a fundamental dilemma: Studies either need to make unwarranted simplifying assumptions, which undermines their relevance, or only examine few replicates of small food webs, which hampers the robustness of findings. We used generalized modeling to study several billion replicates of food webs with nonlinear interactions and up to 50 species. In this way, first we show that higher variability in link strengths stabilizes food webs only when webs are relatively small, whereas larger webs are instead destabilized. Second, we reveal a new power law describing how food-web stability scales with the number of species and their connectance. Third, we report two universal rules: Food-web stability is enhanced when (i) species at a high trophic level feed on multiple prey species and (ii) species at an intermediate trophic level are fed upon by multiple predator species.

Integrated assessment of nitrogen losses from agriculture in EU-27 using MITERRA-EUROPE.

Abstract: The high N inputs to agricultural systems in many regions in 27 member states of the European Union (EU-27) result in N leaching to groundwater and surface water and emissions of ammonia (NH(3)), nitrous oxide (N(2)O), nitric oxide (NO), and dinitrogen (N(2)) to the atmosphere. Measures taken to decreasing these emissions often focus at one specific pollutant, but may have both antagonistic and synergistic effects on other N emissions. The model MITERRA-EUROPE was developed to assess the effects and interactions of policies and measures in agriculture on N losses and P balances at a regional level in EU-27. MITERRA-EUROPE is partly based on the existing models CAPRI and GAINS, supplemented with a N leaching module and a module with sets of measures. Calculations for the year 2000 show that denitrification is the largest N loss pathway in European agriculture (on average 44 kg N ha(-1) agricultural land), followed by NH(3) volatilization (17 kg N ha(-1)), N leaching (16 kg N ha(-1)) and emissions of N(2)O (2 kg N ha(-1)) and NO(X) (2 kg N ha(-1)). However, losses between regions in the EU-27 vary strongly. Some of the measures implemented to abate NH(3) emission may increase N(2)O emissions and N leaching. Balanced N fertilization has the potential of creating synergistic effects by simultaneously decreasing N leaching and NH(3) and N(2)O emissions. MITERRA-EUROPE is the first model that quantitatively assesses the possible synergistic and antagonistic effects of N emission abatement measures in a uniform way in EU-27.

Fisheries-induced evolution

Abstract: Increased mortality from fishing is expected to favor faster life histories, realized through earlier maturation, increased reproductive investment, and reduced postmaturation growth. There is also direct and indirect selection on behavioral traits. Molecular genetic methods have so far contributed minimally to understanding such fisheries-induced evolution (FIE), but a large body of literature studying evolution using phenotypic methods has suggested that FIE in life-history traits, in particular maturation traits, is commonplace in exploited fish populations. Although no phenotypic study in the wild can individually provide conclusive evidence for FIE, the observed common pattern suggests a common explanation, strengthening the case for FIE. This interpretation is supported by theoretical and experimental studies. Evidence for FIE of behavioral traits is limited from the wild, but strong from experimental studies. We suggest that such evolution is also common, but has so far been overlooked.

Implications of fisheries-induced evolution for stock rebuilding and recovery

Abstract: Worldwide depletion of fish stocks has led fisheries managers to become increasingly concerned about rebuilding and recovery planning. To succeed, factors affecting recovery dynamics need to be understood, including the role of fisheries-induced evolution. Here we investigate a stock’s response to fishing followed by a harvest moratorium by analyzing an individual-based evolutionary model parameterized for Atlantic cod Gadus morhua from its northern range, representative of long-lived, late-maturing species. The model allows evolution of life-history processes including maturation, reproduction, and growth. It also incorporates environmental variability, phenotypic plasticity, and density-dependent feedbacks. Fisheries-induced evolution affects recovery in several ways. The first decades of recovery were dominated by demographic and density-dependent processes. Biomass rebuilding was only lightly influenced by fisheries-induced evolution, whereas other stock characteristics such as maturation age, spawning stock biomass, and recruitment were substantially affected, recovering to new demographic equilibria below their preharvest levels. This is because genetic traits took thousands of years to evolve back to preharvest levels, indicating that natural selection driving recovery of these traits is weaker than fisheries-induced selection was. Our results strengthen the case for proactive management of fisheries-induced evolution, as the restoration of genetic traits altered by fishing is slow and may even be impractical.

Projections of SO2, NOx and carbonaceous aerosols emissions in Asia

Abstract: Estimates of Asian emissions of air pollutants and carbonaceous aerosols and their mid-term projections have been changing significantly in the last years. The remote sensing community has shown that increase in NO x in Central East Asia is much stronger than any of the emission inventories or projections indicated so far. A number of studies reviewing older estimates appeared. Here, we review the key contributions and compare them to the most recent results of the GAINS model application for Asia and to the SRES projections used in the IPPC work. The recent projections indicate that the growth of emissions of SO 2 in Asia should slow down significantly towards 2010 or even stabilize at the current level. For NO x , however, further growth is projected although it will be most likely slower that in the last decade, owing to introduction of measures in transport. Emissions of carbonaceous aerosols (black carbon and organic carbon) are expected to decline after 2010, largely due to reduced use of biofuels in residential sector and efficiency improvements. The estimates of these emissions are burdened with significantly larger uncertainties than SO 2 and NO x ; even for the year 2000 the differences in estimates between studies are up to a factor of 2. DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0889.2009.00428.x

Assessing the macroeconomic impacts of natural disasters : are there any ?

Abstract: There is an ongoing debate on whether disasters cause significant macroeconomic impacts and are truly a potential impediment to economic development. This paper aims to assess whether and by what mechanisms disasters have the potential to cause significant GDP impacts. The analysis first studies the counterfactual versus the observed gross domestic product. Second, the analysis assesses disaster impacts as a function of hazard, exposure of assets, and, importantly, vulnerability. In a medium-term analysis (up to 5 years after the disaster event), comparing counterfactual with observed gross domestic product, the authors find that natural disasters on average can lead to negative consequences. Although the negative effects may be small, they can become more pronounced depending mainly on the size of the shock. Furthermore, the authors test a large number of vulnerability predictors and find that greater aid and inflows of remittances reduce adverse macroeconomic consequences, and that direct losses appear most critical.

Eco-genetic modeling of contemporary life-history evolution

Abstract: We present eco-genetic modeling as a flexible tool for exploring the course and rates of multi-trait life-history evolution in natural populations. We build on existing modeling approaches by combining features that facilitate studying the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of realistically structured populations. In particular, the joint consideration of age and size structure enables the analysis of phenotypically plastic populations with more than a single growth trajectory, and ecological feedback is readily included in the form of density dependence and frequency dependence. Stochasticity and life-history trade-offs can also be implemented. Critically, eco-genetic models permit the incorporation of salient genetic detail such as a population's genetic variances and covariances and the corresponding heritabilities, as well as the probabilistic inheritance and phenotypic expression of quantitative traits. These inclusions are crucial for predicting rates of evolutionary change on both contemporary and longer timescales. An eco-genetic model can be tightly coupled with empirical data and therefore may have considerable practical relevance, in terms of generating testable predictions and evaluating alternative management measures. To illustrate the utility of these models, we present as an example an eco-genetic model used to study harvest-induced evolution of multiple traits in Atlantic cod. The predictions of our model (most notably that harvesting induces a genetic reduction in age and size at maturation, an increase or decrease in growth capacity depending on the minimum-length limit, and an increase in reproductive investment) are corroborated by patterns observed in wild populations. The predicted genetic changes occur together with plastic changes that could phenotypically mask the former. Importantly, our analysis predicts that evolutionary changes show little signs of reversal following a harvest moratorium. This illustrates how predictions offered by eco-genetic models can enable and guide evolutionarily sustainable resource management.

Making index insurance attractive to farmers

Abstract: There are several factors that influence whether people will want to participate in index insurance programs. A number of these influence their attractiveness on economic grounds, including both the size and timing of the premium and potential payouts, and the degree of risk aversion of the potential customers. Other factors make programs attractive for reasons that are not economic, but no less valid. These have to do with the trust that people have in the insurance product and the organizations involved in selling and managing it. Indeed, data from India, Africa, and South America show that these factors may be more important than the economic ones in influencing demand. Index insurance pilot projects, in order to estimate demand for alternative products, have typically involved a great deal of interaction with potential customers. It is important to recognize that such interaction is crucial not just as a research tool, but also as a means to build understanding and trust in the products. When scaling up from isolated pilots to operational programs, it is vital to recognize this trust building function by replicating participation efforts in every community. In this paper, we examine the role of field games in establishing and building trust in three important aspects of these projects for participants: trust in the insurance product, trust in the participating organizations, and trust in their own ability to make good decisions. While games have previously been used as a way to gauge interest in the product and to identify design features, we argue that these games are also valuable tools for constructing these kinds of trust.

Effects of Low-Cost Offsets on Energy Investment - New Perspectives on REDD

Abstract: Tropical deforestation is one of the major sources of carbon emissions, but the Kyoto Protocol presently excludes avoiding these specific emissions to fulfill stabilization targets. Since the 13th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UNFCCC in 2007, where the need for policy incentives for the reduction of emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) was first officially recognized, the focus of this debate has shifted to issues of implementation and methodology. One question is how REDD would be financed, which could be solved by integrating REDD credits into existing carbon markets. However, concern has been voiced regarding the effects that the availability of cheap REDD credits might have on energy investments and the development of clean technology. On the other hand, investors and producers are also worried that emissions trading schemes like the one installed in Europe might deter investment into new technologies and harm profits of existing plants due to fluctuations in the price of emissions permits. This paper seeks to contribute to this discussion by developing a real options model, where there is an option to invest in less carbon-intensive energy technology and an option to purchase credits on REDD, which you will exercise or not depending on the future evolution of CO2 prices. In this way, unresolved questions can still be addressed at a later stage, while producers and investors hold REDD options to maintain flexibility for later decisions. We find that investment in cleaner technology is not significantly affected if REDD options are priced as a derivative of CO2 permits. Indeed, the availability of REDD options helps to smooth out price fluctuations that might arise from permit trading and thus decreases risk for the producer - thereby being a complement to permit trading rather than an obstacle undermining cap-and-trade.

Breaking the Waves? Does Education Mediate the Relationship Between Youth Bulges and Political Violence?

Abstract: Much of the developing world has experienced a decline in mortality, while fertility often has remained high. This has produced youthful populations in many countries, generally referred to as"youth bulges."Recent empirical research suggests that youth bulges may be associated with increased risks of political violence and conflict. This paper addresses ways that education may serve as a strategy to reduce the risk of political violence, particularly in the context of large cohorts of young males. The authors use a new education dataset measuring educational attainment. The dataset is constructed using demographic back-projection techniques, and offers uninterrupted time-series data for 120 countries. The empirical analysis finds evidence that large, young male population bulges are more likely to increase the risk of conflict in societies where male secondary education is low. The effect on conflict risk by low education and large youth populations is particularly strong in low and middle-income countries. This is especially challenging for Sub-Saharan Africa, the region facing the youngest age structure and the lowest educational attainment levels. Although quantitative studies generally find a strong relationship between indicators of development and conflict risk, the results suggest that poor countries do have some leverage over reducing conflict potential through increased educational opportunities for young people. There is further evidence that the interaction of large youth cohorts and low education levels may be mediated by structural economic factors. The study supports broad policy interventions in education by relaxing concerns about the consequences of rapid educational expansion.

An assessment of monitoring requirements and costs of 'Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation'

Abstract: Negotiations on a future climate policy framework addressing Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) are ongoing. Regardless of how such a framework will be designed, many technical solutions of estimating forest cover and forest carbon stock change exist to support policy in monitoring and accounting. These technologies typically combine remotely sensed data with ground-based inventories. In this article we assess the costs of monitoring REDD based on available technologies and requirements associated with key elements of REDD policy. We find that the design of a REDD policy framework (and specifically its rules) can have a significant impact on monitoring costs. Costs may vary from 0.5 to 550 US$ per square kilometre depending on the required precision of carbon stock and area change detection. Moreover, they follow economies of scale, i.e. single country or project solutions will face relatively higher monitoring costs. Although monitoring costs are relatively small compared to other cost items within a REDD system, they should be shared not only among countries but also among sectors, because an integrated monitoring system would have multiple benefits for non-REDD management. Overcoming initialization costs and unequal access to monitoring technologies is crucial for implementation of an integrated monitoring system, and demands for international cooperation.