International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

About: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis is a nonprofit organization based out in Laxenburg, Austria. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Population & Greenhouse gas. The organization has 1369 authors who have published 5075 publications receiving 280467 citations. The organization is also known as: IIASA.

Effects of Low-Cost Offsets on Energy Investment - New Perspectives on REDD

Abstract: Tropical deforestation is one of the major sources of carbon emissions, but the Kyoto Protocol presently excludes avoiding these specific emissions to fulfill stabilization targets. Since the 13th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UNFCCC in 2007, where the need for policy incentives for the reduction of emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) was first officially recognized, the focus of this debate has shifted to issues of implementation and methodology. One question is how REDD would be financed, which could be solved by integrating REDD credits into existing carbon markets. However, concern has been voiced regarding the effects that the availability of cheap REDD credits might have on energy investments and the development of clean technology. On the other hand, investors and producers are also worried that emissions trading schemes like the one installed in Europe might deter investment into new technologies and harm profits of existing plants due to fluctuations in the price of emissions permits. This paper seeks to contribute to this discussion by developing a real options model, where there is an option to invest in less carbon-intensive energy technology and an option to purchase credits on REDD, which you will exercise or not depending on the future evolution of CO2 prices. In this way, unresolved questions can still be addressed at a later stage, while producers and investors hold REDD options to maintain flexibility for later decisions. We find that investment in cleaner technology is not significantly affected if REDD options are priced as a derivative of CO2 permits. Indeed, the availability of REDD options helps to smooth out price fluctuations that might arise from permit trading and thus decreases risk for the producer - thereby being a complement to permit trading rather than an obstacle undermining cap-and-trade.

Groundwater rejuvenation in parts of India influenced by water-policy change implementation.

Abstract: The dwindling groundwater resource of India, supporting almost one fifth of the global population and also the largest groundwater user, has been of great concern in recent years. However, in contrary to the well documented Indian groundwater depletion due to rapid and unmanaged groundwater withdrawal, here for the first time, we report regional-scale groundwater storage (GWS) replenishment through long-term (1996–2014, using more than 19000 observation locations) in situ and decadal (2003–2014) satellite-based groundwater storage measurements in western and southern parts of India. In parts of western and southern India, in situ GWS (GWSobs) has been decreasing at the rate of −5.81 ± 0.38 km3/year (in 1996–2001) and −0.92 ± 0.12 km3/year (in 1996–2002), and reversed to replenish at the rate of 2.04 ± 0.20 km3/year (in 2002–2014) and 0.76 ± 0.08 km3/year (in 2003–2014), respectively. Here, using statistical analyses and simulation results of groundwater management policy change effect on groundwater storage in western and southern India, we show that paradigm shift in Indian groundwater withdrawal and management policies for sustainable water utilization appear to have started replenishing the aquifers in western and southern parts of India.

Expected utility or prospect theory maximisers? Assessing farmers' risk behaviour from field-experiment data

Abstract: We elicit the risk preferences of a sample of French farmers in a field-experiment setting, considering both expected utility and cumulative prospect theory. Under the EU framework, our results show that farmers are characterised by a concave utility function for gain outcomes implying risk aversion. The CPT framework confirms this result, but also suggests that farmers are twice as sensitive to losses as to gains and tend to pay undue attention to unlikely extreme outcomes. Accounting for loss aversion and probability weighting can make a difference in the design of effective and efficient policies, contracts or insurance schemes.

Limited emission reductions from fuel subsidy removal except in energy-exporting regions

Abstract: Hopes are high that removing fossil fuel subsidies could help to mitigate climate change by discouraging inefficient energy consumption and levelling the playing field for renewable energy In September 2016, the G20 countries re-affirmed their 2009 commitment (at the G20 Leaders' Summit) to phase out fossil fuel subsidies and many national governments are using today's low oil prices as an opportunity to do so In practical terms, this means abandoning policies that decrease the price of fossil fuels and electricity generated from fossil fuels to below normal market prices However, whether the removal of subsidies, even if implemented worldwide, would have a large impact on climate change mitigation has not been systematically explored Here we show that removing fossil fuel subsidies would have an unexpectedly small impact on global energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions and would not increase renewable energy use by 2030 Subsidy removal would reduce the carbon price necessary to stabilize greenhouse gas concentration at 550 parts per million by only 2-12 per cent under low oil prices Removing subsidies in most regions would deliver smaller emission reductions than the Paris Agreement (2015) climate pledges and in some regions global subsidy removal may actually lead to an increase in emissions, owing to either coal replacing subsidized oil and natural gas or natural-gas use shifting from subsidizing, energy-exporting regions to non-subsidizing, importing regions Our results show that subsidy removal would result in the largest CO2 emission reductions in high-income oil- and gas-exporting regions, where the reductions would exceed the climate pledges of these regions and where subsidy removal would affect fewer people living below the poverty line than in lower-income regions

Mothers determine offspring size in response to own juvenile growth conditions

Abstract: Through non-genetic maternal effects, mothers can tailor offspring phenotype to the environment in which young will grow up. If juvenile and adult ecologies differ, the conditions mothers experienced as juveniles may better predict their offspring's environment than the adult environment of mothers. In this case maternal decisions about investment in offspring quality should already be determined during the juvenile phase of mothers. I tested this hypothesis by manipulating juvenile and adult maternal environments independently in a cichlid fish. Females raised in a poor environment produced larger young than females raised without food limitations, irrespective of the feeding conditions experienced during adulthood. This maternal boost was due to a higher investment in eggs and to faster larval growth. Apparently, mothers prepare their offspring for similar environmental conditions to those they encountered as juveniles. This explanation is supported by the distribution of these fishes under natural conditions. Juveniles live in a different and much narrower range of habitats than adults. Therefore, the habitat mothers experienced as juveniles will allow them to predict their offspring's environment better than the conditions in the adult home range.