International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

About: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis is a nonprofit organization based out in Laxenburg, Austria. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Population & Greenhouse gas. The organization has 1369 authors who have published 5075 publications receiving 280467 citations. The organization is also known as: IIASA.

Importance of Technological Change and Spillovers in Long-Term Climate Policy

Abstract: This paper examines the role of technological change and spillovers within the context of a climate policy in a long-term scenario of the global energy system. We use the energy-systems optimization model MESSAGE considering endogenous learning for various technologies, such that they experience cost reductions as a function of accumulated capacity installations. We find that the existence of technological learning while reducing overall energy system costs becomes particularly important in the context of a long-term climate policy. Diversity in technological portfolios is emphasized and results indicate deployment of a range of energy technologies in reducing emissions. An important finding is that technological learning by itself is not sufficient for climate stabilization and that climate policies are an absolute necessary complimentary element. Under a climate constraint, spillovers across technologies and regions due to learning results in increased upfront investments and hence lower costs of carbon free technologies, thus resulting in technology deployment and emissions reductions, especially in developing countries. We conclude that learning and spillover effects can lead to technologically advanced cost-effective global energy transition pathways. We suggest that coordinated climate stabilization policies can serve as important institutional mechanisms that facilitate the required technological investments, especially in developing countries and thus ensure long-term cost reductions.

Quantifying black carbon from biomass burning by means of levoglucosan - A one-year time series at the Arctic observatory Zeppelin

Abstract: Levoglucosan, a highly specific tracer of partic- ulate matter from biomass burning, has been used to study the influence of residential wood burning, agricultural waste burning and Boreal forest fire emissions on the Arctic atmo- sphere black carbon (BC) concentration. A one-year time series from March 2008 to March 2009 of levoglucosan has been established at the Zeppelin observatory in the Eu- ropean Arctic. Elevated concentrations of levoglucosan in winter (mean: 1.02 ng m 3 ) compared to summer (mean: 0.13 ng m 3 ) were observed, resembling the seasonal vari- ation seen for e.g. sulfate and BC. The mean concentration in the winter period was 2-3 orders of magnitude lower than typical values reported for European urban areas in winter, and 1-2 orders of magnitude lower than European rural back- ground concentrations. Episodes of elevated levoglucosan concentration lasting from 1 to 6 days were more frequent in winter than in summer and peak values were higher, ex- ceeding 10 ng m 3 at the most. Concentrations of elemental carbon from biomass burn- ing (ECbb) were obtained by combining measured concen- trations of levoglucosan and emission ratios of levoglucosan and EC for wildfires/agricultural fires and for residential wood burning. Neglecting chemical degradation by OH pro- vides minimum levoglucosan concentrations, corresponding to a mean ECbb concentration of 3.7± 1.2 ng m 3 in win- ter (October-April) and 0.8± 0.3 ng m 3 in summer (May- September), or 8.8± 4.5 % of the measured equivalent black carbon (EBC) concentration in winter and 6.1± 3.4 % in summer. When accounting for chemical degradation of lev- oglucosan by OH, an upper estimate of 31-45 % of EBC could be attributed to EC bb (ECbb adjusted for chemical degradation) in winter, whereas no reliable (< 100 %) upper estimate could be provided for summer for the degradation rates applied. Hence, fossil fuel sources appear to dominate the European Arctic BC concentrations in winter, whereas the very wide range obtained for summer does not allow us to conclude upon this for the warm season. Calculations using the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART show that the seasonal variation of the modeled ECbb (ECbb,m) concentration compared relatively well with observationally derived ECbb from agricultural fires/wildfires during summer, and residential wood burning in winter. The model overestimates by a factor of 2.2 in win- ter and 4.4 in summer when compared to the observationally derived mean ECbb concentration, which provides the mini- mum estimate, whereas it underestimates by a factor of 2.3- 3.3 in winter and a factor of 4.5 in summer when compared to EC bb , which provides the upper estimate. There are indi- cations of too-low emissions of residential wood burning in northern Russia, a region of great importance with respect to observed concentrations of BC in the European Arctic.

Data-driven estimates of global nitrous oxide emissions from croplands.

Abstract: Croplands are the single largest anthropogenic source of nitrous oxide (N2O) globally, yet their estimates remain difficult to verify when using Tier 1 and 3 methods of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we re-evaluate global cropland-N2O emissions in 1961-2014, using N-rate-dependent emission factors (EFs) upscaled from 1206 field observations in 180 global distributed sites and high-resolution N inputs disaggregated from sub-national surveys covering 15593 administrative units. Our results confirm IPCC Tier 1 default EFs for upland crops in 1990-2014, but give a ∼15% lower EF in 1961-1989 and a ∼67% larger EF for paddy rice over the full period. Associated emissions (0.82 ± 0.34 Tg N yr-1) are probably one-quarter lower than IPCC Tier 1 global inventories but close to Tier 3 estimates. The use of survey-based gridded N-input data contributes 58% of this emission reduction, the rest being explained by the use of observation-based non-linear EFs. We conclude that upscaling N2O emissions from site-level observations to global croplands provides a new benchmark for constraining IPCC Tier 1 and 3 methods. The detailed spatial distribution of emission data is expected to inform advancement towards more realistic and effective mitigation pathways.

Modelling PM2.5 impact indicators in Europe

Abstract: Long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has been shown to have significant negative impacts on human health. It is estimated that current levels of air pollution shorten the statistical life expectancy of European citizens by several months. The GAINS integrated assessment model calculates shortening of life expectancy from population exposure to PM2.5 using epidemiologically-derived health impact functions. In addition, GAINS estimates PM2.5 concentrations at 1875 air quality monitoring stations located in diverse environments ranging from remote background locations to busy street canyons. In this article, different approaches to dealing with the PM2.5 pollution problem are compared. We assess for the present and future the attainment of EU and WHO air quality standards for PM2.5 and estimate the loss of life expectancy under different policy scenarios developed for the ongoing revision of the EU Air Quality Legislation. We present PM2.5 forecasts for 1875 individual air quality monitoring stations in Europe.Calculations bridge the gap between regional background and street canyons.Compliance with the EU limit value is achieved easily, but not with the WHO guideline.We quantify EU wide health benefits of future emission control legislation scenarios.We analyse the relationship between compliance and population exposure.