International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

About: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis is a nonprofit organization based out in Laxenburg, Austria. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Population & Greenhouse gas. The organization has 1369 authors who have published 5075 publications receiving 280467 citations. The organization is also known as: IIASA.

Multi-model assessment of global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential under climate change

Abstract: Worldwide, 98% of total electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric power and hydropower. Climate change is expected to directly impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power. Improved understanding of how climate change may impact the availability and temperature of water resources is therefore of major importance. Here we use a multi-model ensemble to show the potential impacts of climate change on global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential. For the first time, combined projections of streamflow and water temperature were produced with three global hydrological models (GHMs) to account for uncertainties in the structure and parametrization of these GHMs in both water availability and water temperature. The GHMs were forced with bias-corrected output of five general circulation models (GCMs) for both the lowest and highest representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The ensemble projections of streamflow and water temperature were then used to quantify impacts on gross hydropower potential and cooling water discharge capacity of rivers worldwide. We show that global gross hydropower potential is expected to increase between +2.4% (GCM-GHM ensemble mean for RCP 2.6) and +6.3% (RCP 8.5) for the 2080s compared to 1971–2000. The strongest increases in hydropower potential are expected for Central Africa, India, central Asia and the northern high-latitudes, with 18–33% of the world population living in these areas by the 2080s. Global mean cooling water discharge capacity is projected to decrease by 4.5-15% (2080s). The largest reductions are found for the United States, Europe, eastern Asia, and southern parts of South America, Africa and Australia, where strong water temperature increases are projected combined with reductions in mean annual streamflow. These regions are expected to affect 11–14% (for RCP2.6 and the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP)1, SSP2, SSP4) and 41–51% (RCP8.5–SSP3, SSP5) of the world population by the 2080s.

Energy use, emissions, and air pollution reduction strategies in Asia

Abstract: In contrast to Europe and North America, air pollution in Asia is increasing rapidly, resulting in both local air quality problems and higher acidic depositions. In 1989, an east-west group of scientists initiated a multi-institutional research project on Acid Rain and Emissions Reduction in Asia, funded for the past two years by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. Phase I, covering 23 countries of Asia, focussed on the development of PC-based software called the Regional Air Pollution INformation and Simulation Model (RAINS-ASIA). A 94-region Regional Energy Scenario Generator was developed to create alternative energy/emission scenarios through the year 2020. A long-range atmospheric transport model was developed to calculate dispersion and deposition of sulfur, based upon emissions from area and large point sources, on a one-degree grid of Asia. The resulting impacts of acidic deposition on a variety of vegetation types were analyzed using the critical loads approach to test different emissions management strategies, including both energy conservation measures and sulfur abatement technologies.

How to spend a dwindling greenhouse gas budget

Abstract: The Paris Agreement is based on emission scenarios that move from a sluggish phase-out of fossil fuels to large-scale late-century negative emissions. Alternative pathways of early deployment of negative emission technologies need to be considered to ensure that climate targets are reached safely and sustainably.

Mothers Adjust Egg Size to Helper Number in a Cooperatively Breeding Cichlid

Abstract: Mothers should adjust the size of propagules to the selective forces to which these offspring will be exposed. Usually, a larger propagule size is favored when young are exposed to high mortality risk or conspecific competition. Here we test 2 predictions on how egg size should vary with these selective agents. When offspring are cared for by parents and/or alloparents, protection may reduce the predation risk to young, which may allow mothers to invest less per single offspring. In the cooperatively breeding cichlid Neolamprologus pulcher, brood care helpers protect group offspring and reduce the latters' mortality rate. Therefore, females are expected to reduce their investment per egg when more helpers are present. In a first experiment, we tested this prediction by manipulating the helper number. In N. pulcher, helpers compete for dispersal opportunities with similar-sized individuals of neighboring groups. If the expected future competition pressure on young is high, females should increase their investment per offspring to give them a head start. In a second experiment, we tested whether females produce larger eggs when perceived neighbor density is high. Females indeed reduced egg size with increasing helper number. However, we did not detect an effect of local density on egg size, although females took longer to produce the next clutch when local density was high. We argue that females can use the energy saved by adjusting egg size to reduced predation risk to enhance future reproductive output. Adaptive adjustment of offspring size to helper number may be an important, as yet unrecognized, strategy of cooperative breeders.