Journal ArticleDOI
The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
Richard H. Moss,Jae Edmonds,Kathy Hibbard,Martin R. Manning,Steven K. Rose,Detlef P. van Vuuren,Timothy R. Carter,Seita Emori,Mikiko Kainuma,Tom Kram,Gerald A. Meehl,John F. B. Mitchell,Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Keywan Riahi,Steven J. Smith,Ronald J. Stouffer,Allison M. Thomson,John P. Weyant,Thomas J. Wilbanks +19 more
TLDR
A new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community is described.Abstract:
Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.read more
Citations
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
Global and regional changes in exposure to extreme heat and the relative contributions of climate and population change.
TL;DR: Analysis of output for three scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and socio-economic growth to estimate future exposure change finds that for the higher emission scenario (RCP8.5-SSP3), the global exposure increases nearly 30-fold by 2100, while in the absence of climate change, exposure is reduced by 75–95% globally and across all geographic regions, as compared with exposure under the high emission scenario.
Journal ArticleDOI
N 2 O emissions from the global agricultural nitrogen cycle – current state and future scenarios
Benjamin Leon Bodirsky,Alexander Popp,Isabelle Weindl,Jan Philipp Dietrich,Susanne Rolinski,L. Scheiffele,Christoph Schmitz,Hermann Lotze-Campen +7 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors combine a material flow model with a land-use optimization model to estimate the state of the reactive nitrogen cycle in 1995 and create four scenarios for the 21st century in line with the SRES storylines.
Journal ArticleDOI
Impacts of climate change and water resources development on the declining inflow into Iran's Urmia Lake
Somayeh Shadkam,Somayeh Shadkam,Fulco Ludwig,Pieter R. van Oel,Çağla Kirmit,Pavel Kabat,Pavel Kabat +6 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors used the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model to estimate the relative contributions of climate change and water resources development, which includes the construction of reservoirs and expansion of irrigated areas, to changes in Urmia Lake inflow over the period 1960-2010.
Journal ArticleDOI
Toward an ice-free Barents Sea
TL;DR: In this article, the authors combine observations since 1850 with climate model simulations to examine the recent record low winter Barents Sea ice extent, and find that the present observed winter barents sea ice extent has been reduced to less than 1/3 of the pre-satellite mean and is lower than the minimum sea ice in all multi-century climate model control simulations assessed here.
Journal ArticleDOI
Multi-model assessment of global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential under climate change
M.T.H. van Vliet,M.T.H. van Vliet,L. P. H. van Beek,Stephanie Eisner,Martina Flörke,Yoshihide Wada,Marc F. P. Bierkens +6 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors used a multi-model ensemble to show the potential impacts of climate change on global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential, and combined projections of streamflow and water temperature were produced with three global hydrological models (GHMs) to account for uncertainties in the structure and parametrization of these GHMs in both water availability and temperature.
References
More filters
Climate change 2007: the physical science basis
Susan Solomon,Dahe Qin,Martin R. Manning,Melinda Marquis,Kristen Averyt,Melinda M.B. Tignor,H. L. Miller,Z. Chen +7 more
TL;DR: The first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report as mentioned in this paper was published in 2007 and covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
Book
Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors set the stage for impact, adaptation, and vulnerability assessment of climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity, and developed and applied scenarios in Climate Change Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment.
Book
Climate change 2007 : impacts, adaptation and vulnerability
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a cross-chapter case study on climate change and sustainability in natural and managed systems and assess key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change, and assess adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity.
Book Chapter
The Physical Science Basis
E. Jansen,J Overpeck,Keith R. Briffa,J. C. Duplessy,F. Joos,Masson-Delmotte,Daniel Olago,B. Otto-Bliesner,W. R. Peltier,Stefan Rahmstorf,Rengaswamy Ramesh,D Raynud,D Rind,O Solomina,Ricardo Villalba,De Zhang +15 more
Book
The Limits to Growth
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigate five major trends of global concern: accelerating industrialization, rapid population growth, widespread malnutrition, depletion of nonrenewable resources, and a deteriorating environment.
Related Papers (5)
The representative concentration pathways: an overview
Detlef P. van Vuuren,Detlef P. van Vuuren,Jae Edmonds,Mikiko Kainuma,Keywan Riahi,Allison M. Thomson,Kathy Hibbard,George C. Hurtt,George C. Hurtt,Tom Kram,Volker Krey,Jean-Francois Lamarque,Toshihiko Masui,Malte Meinshausen,Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Steven J. Smith,Steven K. Rose +17 more
The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300
The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system
Dick Dee,S. Uppala,Adrian Simmons,Paul Berrisford,Paul Poli,Shinya Kobayashi,Ulf Andrae,Magdalena Balmaseda,Gianpaolo Balsamo,Peter Bauer,Peter Bechtold,Anton Beljaars,L. van de Berg,Jean Bidlot,Niels Bormann,C. Delsol,Rossana Dragani,Manuel Fuentes,Alan J. Geer,Leopold Haimberger,Sean Healy,Hans Hersbach,Elías Hólm,Lars Isaksen,P. Kallberg,Martin Köhler,Marco Matricardi,A. P. McNally,B. M. Monge-Sanz,Jean-Jacques Morcrette,B.-K. Park,Carole Peubey,P. de Rosnay,Christina Tavolato,Jean-Noël Thépaut,Frederic Vitart +35 more