Journal ArticleDOI
The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
Richard H. Moss,Jae Edmonds,Kathy Hibbard,Martin R. Manning,Steven K. Rose,Detlef P. van Vuuren,Timothy R. Carter,Seita Emori,Mikiko Kainuma,Tom Kram,Gerald A. Meehl,John F. B. Mitchell,Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Keywan Riahi,Steven J. Smith,Ronald J. Stouffer,Allison M. Thomson,John P. Weyant,Thomas J. Wilbanks +19 more
TLDR
A new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community is described.Abstract:
Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution
Cyril Caminade,Sari Kovats,Joacim Rocklöv,Adrian M. Tompkins,Andrew P. Morse,Felipe J. Colón-González,Hans Stenlund,Pim Martens,Simon J. Lloyd +8 more
TL;DR: The results indicate that future climate might become more suitable for malaria transmission in the tropical highland regions, but other important socioeconomic factors such as land use change, population growth and urbanization, migration changes and economic development will have to be accounted for in further details for future risk assessments.
Journal ArticleDOI
Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios
Antonio Gasparrini,Yuming Guo,Yuming Guo,Francesco Sera,Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera,Veronika Huber,Shilu Tong,Shilu Tong,Shilu Tong,Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho,Paulo Hilário Nascimento Saldiva,Eric Lavigne,Patricia Matus Correa,Nicolas Valdes Ortega,Haidong Kan,Samuel Osorio,Jan Kyselý,Jan Kyselý,Aleš Urban,Jouni J. K. Jaakkola,Jouni J. K. Jaakkola,Niilo R.I. Ryti,Niilo R.I. Ryti,Mathilde Pascal,Patrick Goodman,Ariana Zeka,Paola Michelozzi,Matteo Scortichini,Masahiro Hashizume,Yasushi Honda,Magali Hurtado-Díaz,Julio Cruz,Xerxes Seposo,Ho Kim,Aurelio Tobias,Carmen Iñiguez,Bertil Forsberg,Daniel Oudin Åström,Daniel Oudin Åström,Martina S. Ragettli,Martina S. Ragettli,Yue Leon Guo,Chang-Fu Wu,Antonella Zanobetti,Joel Schwartz,Michelle L. Bell,Tran Ngoc Dang,Tran Ngoc Dang,Dung Do Van,Clare Heaviside,Clare Heaviside,Sotiris Vardoulakis,Shakoor Hajat,Andy Haines,Ben Armstrong +54 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors show that climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature, however, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited.
Journal ArticleDOI
Power-generation system vulnerability and adaptation to changes in climate and water resources
TL;DR: In this article, a model of over 25,000 hydro- and thermoelectric power plants was used to show that water constraints are likely to severely reduce usable capacity after 2040.
Journal ArticleDOI
Reactive greenhouse gas scenarios: Systematic exploration of uncertainties and the role of atmospheric chemistry
TL;DR: In this paper, a method for estimating the fraction of greenhouse gases attributable to human activities, both currently and for future scenarios, is presented, using knowledge of changing abundances and lifetimes to estimate current total anthropogenic emissions.
Journal ArticleDOI
Reductions in labour capacity from heat stress under climate warming
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors show that individual labour capacity has reduced to 90% in peak months owing to environmental heat stress over the past few decades, with most tropical and mid-latitude regions experiencing extreme heat stress.
References
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Climate change 2007: the physical science basis
Susan Solomon,Dahe Qin,Martin R. Manning,Melinda Marquis,Kristen Averyt,Melinda M.B. Tignor,H. L. Miller,Z. Chen +7 more
TL;DR: The first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report as mentioned in this paper was published in 2007 and covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors set the stage for impact, adaptation, and vulnerability assessment of climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity, and developed and applied scenarios in Climate Change Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment.
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Climate change 2007 : impacts, adaptation and vulnerability
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a cross-chapter case study on climate change and sustainability in natural and managed systems and assess key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change, and assess adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity.
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The Physical Science Basis
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